Everybody loves an underdog story. There’s nothing better than bragging to the entire bar about the plus-money bet that you just cashed. Predicting a college football upset can give you a high that makes you feel like you’re standing on the mountaintop. You can bet these Week 6 College Football upsets against the spread, as single moneyline plays, or as a parlay, and you could be the Tailgate Hero. Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast Network Animal Shelter. Let’s find you a dog.
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Week 6 College Football Upsets: Moneyline Parlay
+2175 The College Football Experience Parlay
We here at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network love large odds. Some people say parlay betting is dumb, but when you treat a moneyline underdog parlay like a lottery ticket, it’s not. Let me explain. Many folks are avid lotto players. For example, Mega Millions and Powerball. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292.2 million, and even lower for Mega Millions at 1 in 302.6 million.
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There are 15 slates of college football. If you were to place just one $2 college football parlay each week, that’s a $30 dollar bet total. With just one correct +2175 The College Football Experience Parlay, that’s $15.51 of profit, $61.02 if two hit, $106.53 for three, etc.
Are you feeling more frisky? Those profit amounts increase incrementally with just a few extra dollars on each moneyline underdog parlay. Lastly, in case you weren’t already sold, I can promise you that watching Missouri, Washington State, and Wyoming play college football is more entertaining than 40 seconds of ping-pong balls.
Week 5 Recap
Jalon Daniels didn’t play!? Nobody found out that Daniels was even nursing a back injury last week until five minutes before the game. In all honesty, with Daniels, I’m not sure Kansas would have won anyway. Colby figured out that James Madison is for real after his South Alabama moneyline pick. We did get across the line with my favorite pick of the weekend of Ole Miss upsetting LSU.
College Football Picks Record (Units Based on a $10 Bet)
Every ML Dog Pick: 6-12 (+1.55 units)
Dundee’s Dogs: 2-4 (+2.55 units)
Noah’s Dogs: 4-7 (+2 units)
Dog #1: Missouri Moneyline +220
(-6.5) LSU at Missouri (O/U 65)
My favorite underdog last week was a fade of LSU in the first leg of a back-to-back road game set. Missouri was always going to be included in the Week 6 article, being LSU’s second leg of the back-to-back. The College Football Experience’s Colby Dant has coined this trend for unpopular upsets. Most bettors will say the Bayou Bengals will “bounce back” this week. My response is, “with what defense?”
Last week, LSU and Ole Miss were hilariously three points shy of drilling the full game over in the first half. Jaxson Dart, a talented but below-average SEC QB, threw for 389 yards against LSU! RB Quinshon Judkins rushed for 177 yards! In total, five receivers have gone over 100 yards vs. LSU’s secondary. Ole Miss’ Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, Florida State’s Keon Coleman, and Johnny Wilson, and Grambling State’s Chance Williams. It’s a combination of the Bayou Bengals’ soft coverage and lack of a pass rush.
In Week 6, LSU is going to meet Missouri’s WR Luther Burden III. Burden is averaging 10.8 targets per game, 11.9 yards per target, and 15 yards per reception, with 5 touchdowns. Burden’s player props and alt lines should be auto-overs because QB Brady Cook has been efficient this season. Cook is completing 74.5% of his passes with an 11/0 TD/INT ratio and 1,468 yards in five games.
Missouri pulled off the upset the last time LSU visited Columbia. If Mizzou’s defense can get a handful of defensive stops, I think the fans will storm the field for the second time this season.
Luther Burden leads the nation in receiving yards at 644 🐯 pic.twitter.com/jxEWYuF1et
— Sidelines Mizzou (@SSN_Mizzou) October 1, 2023
Dog #2: Washington State Moneyline +154
Washington State at (-3.5) UCLA (O/U 59)
First off, both teams are coming off a Week 5 bye. Second, UCLA is the “too cute” side of the week. A lot of people trying to outsmart the number will say, “Washington State is ranked, and they’re a road dog to UCLA.” Third, breaking news to those people that UCLA is missing yester-year’s stars QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, RB Zach Charbonnet, and WR Jake Bobo. Head coach Chip Kelly is operating his fast-paced offense with multiple new and unproven pieces and a freshman QB, Dante Moore.
UCLA’s defensive numbers look amazing right now. The Bruins are allowing just 3.9 yards per play, which ranks second in the nation right now. I don’t remember a Chip Kelly team that leaned on its defense to win games until this year. Let’s take a look under the hood at UCLA’s schedule. Coastal Carolina ranks 89th in points per game with 22. San Diego State is 120th (16 PPG), FCS NC Central, and Utah is 119th (16.3 PPG).
UCLA hasn’t faced an offense the caliber of Washington State, which is 8th in the nation in points per game with 39.7. Wazzu has already beaten two Power 5 teams in Wisconsin 31-22 and Oregon State 38-35. Plus, in the Cougars’ one road game, they dropped a 50 burger on a Colorado State team that has allowed 26 PPG since. That’s good for 60th in the country, aka not terrible. QB Cameron Ward already has three 300-yard receivers through four games. Ward also has not thrown an interception yet while tossing 13 touchdowns and rushing for 3.
Washington State is UCLA’s 2023 wake-up call.
Cameron Ward on 10+ yard throws vs Oregon State:
🎯 9/11
🎯 259 Yards
🎯 4 TDs
🎯 0 INTs
🎯 158.3 Passer Rating pic.twitter.com/6zHe8nSV7j— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 25, 2023
Dundee’s Dog: Wyoming Moneyline +180
(-5.5) Fresno State at Wyoming (O/U 45.5)
Each week, I will write up Pick Dundee, aka Colby Dant’s favorite college football upset prediction. Dundee also loves a good college football parlay and is well known for his success betting moneyline dogs. Dant’s favorite Week 6 College Football upset is Wyoming to upend Fresno State. If you remember, during Week 1, Colby gave out the Cowboys at +455 to knock off Texas Tech, and it came through. Once again, as a home dog, Colby is going back to the well.
Texas Tech attempts 37.5 passes a game, which puts them 27th in the country. Fresno State has attempted the country’s 9th most passes per game at 40.5. Laramie, Wyoming, is expecting game-time weather in the mid-thirties with winds stronger than 10 mph. Add in that Head Coach Craig Bohl‘s defense is 19th against the pass, allowing just 6 yards per pass. It’ll be a difficult environment for the Bulldogs’ finesse offense in a negative weather forecast in front of a rowdy road crowd.
In the last five seasons, when Bohl’s Cowboys have been home underdogs, they are 6-4 straight up. Wyoming was tied AT Texas 10-10 going into the 4th quarter. QB Andrew Peasley was injured and did not play that game, which is the team’s only loss this season. Peasley has played on and off throughout the year based on his health.
RB Harrison Waylee missed Weeks 1 and 2 due to injury but has picked up the slack since. Waylee had 18 rushes for 110 yards against Texas in week 3. 17 for 156 vs. Appalachian State in Week 4, and 18 for 191 in Week against New Mexico.
It’ll be a battle of strengths on strengths Saturday night. Wyoming’s Top 15 rush offense meets Fresno State’s Top 10 rush defense will be important. However, with the weather on our side, we like our advantage in the other matchup, Fresno State’s Top 10 Pass Offense vs. Wyoming’s Top 20 Pass Defense.
College Football’s Fastest Five of the Week:
2. Wyoming RB Harrison Waylee (@hwaylee02) 21.8 mph #ReelSpeed 💨
🔗 https://t.co/orrD059ykP pic.twitter.com/npcAnq0xrZ
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 25, 2023
The College Football Experience
For more analysis and entertainment on these games, make sure you turn into The College Football Experience. Colby Dant, PattyC, and NC Nick talk about each FBS game and mix in some FCS games, giving out moneyline and ATS college football picks every Wednesday!
