The NFL schedule for the 2023-24 season is out! This is one of the few NFL-related events we’ll see until guys start reporting for training camp in June, so let’s take advantage. From the hope and dream that is Week 1 to sweating out a playoff berth in Week 18, we now know every matchup that we’ll have to look forward to and, more importantly, bet on.
Let’s dig into what those matchups may mean to certain teams. How do teams play on short rest? Long rest? Advantages in rest? Disadvantages in rest? Let’s take a look at key trends to consider ahead of the NFL schedule release and make a few recommendations as to how you can play these during the regular season.
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2023 NFL Betting Trends: How the Schedule Can Impact ATS Results?
Best & Worst NFL Teams With Rest Advantage ATS Since 2020
Since 2020, the best team in the league with a rest advantage ATS is the Detroit Lions. The Lions have been on the upswing since hiring Motor City Dan Campbell. They’re 7-1 ATS during his tenure with the rest advantage. MCDC and his staff can clearly prepare Detriot during bye weeks. This is a trend worth following into 2023 as long as it holds.
The Lions get their bye week in Week 9 and draw the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. The Chargers play on Monday night in New York against the Jets in Week 9. So we’ve got the Lions with a full two weeks to prepare and the Chargers on a short week. Look to bang the Lions on Week 10, even if they are going on the road to the West Coast.
The second-best team? The Tennessee Titans under Mike Vrabel are 6-2 ATS with the rest advantage. With their ground’ n’ pound approach on offense, it makes sense that they should find success with an opponent on a short week. Look to bang the Titans with an advantage on rest, even with their concerns under center.
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📺: 2023 Schedule Release on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/31LsUUDn3O
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) May 12, 2023
The Titans get their bye week in Week 7 and get Atlanta in Week 8. While this might be the fastest game of the year with the run-heavy Falcons and Derrick Henry‘s Titans, this is a spot that you’ll want to be in Tennessee.
Having a rest advantage has been a detriment to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are 1-8 (!) ATS with a rest advantage since 2021. If you’re sideways on the Browns coming off a bye or with a long week, it might make sense to fade until they show otherwise.
The Browns get their bye week in Week 5 and play the San Francisco 49ers at home in Week 6. Given how rough the Browns are with a rest advantage, it looks like an obvious spot to be on the 49ers.
The Baltimore Ravens are 2-6 over the past three seasons with a rest advantage. This is an odd one, as the Ravens have maintained continuity on the coaching staff and with their core group of players for several seasons. However, the Ravens are 27-24-2 overall ATS since 2020, so they’re capable of covering. This one looks like ‘fade at your own risk’ because there isn’t an obvious reason for Baltimore to struggle with a rest advantage.
Best & Worst NFL Teams With a Rest Disadvantage ATS Since 2020
Say what you want about Matt LaFleur and how he handled his MVP quarterback, but he gets his team ready to play on short rest. Since 2020, the Green Bay Packers have been 9-3 with a rest disadvantage. Given the changes in Green Bay this off-season, you may want to take a wait-and-see approach. However, the Packers are one of the toughest teams in the league ATS on short rest in the past three years.
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— Green Bay Packers (@packers) May 12, 2023
Green Bay has to play on Monday night against the New York Giants in Week 15 and then gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16. So look to be on the Packers at home on the short week.
However, the Packers aren’t the best team in the league ATS with a rest disadvantage. The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-1 ATS since 2020 with short rest. They’ve had the same coach, quarterback, and offensive system since then. Many teams with records above .500 have enjoyed similar levels of continuity over the past few seasons.
The Bengals play on Monday night in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams and then draw the Tennessee Titans in Week 4. So if you want to play the short rest trend with the Bengals, you’ll want to take them on the road in Tennessee.
Regarding teams that struggle ATS on short rest, the Chicago Bears are at the bottom of the list. The Bears are 1-8 over the last three years on short rest. This really speaks more to the level of turnover the Bears have gone through in the past few seasons.
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— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) May 12, 2023
Oddly enough, the Minnesota Vikings are the next worst team on the list on short rest. Since 2020, the Vikings are only 1-6 ATS with a disadvantage in rest. The Vikings have seen turnover on the sidelines, but they’ve had a lot of the same pieces on their roster for a while. They were 0-2 last year, so this could be a trend to keep an eye on, given how their roster has stayed together.
Best & Worst NFL Teams on Even Rest Since 2020
The best team in the league ATS since 2020 is the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have covered 65% of their games ATS on even rest in that time period. What’s odd is the Chargers are also among the best in the league in non-conference games since 2020, with a 64% cover percentage against the NFC.
They drew the NFC West plus the Atlanta Falcons last year. In 2021, the Chargers drew the NFC East plus Minnesota. So the even rest record appears to have been influenced by a few soft non-conference schedules.
The Chargers play at home against the Chicago Bears in week 8. A non-conference home game on equal rest? The Chargers are where you’ll want to be.
Regarding the worst team in the league, ATS on even rest, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the poorest record in the league. The Bucs have been only 12-24 ATS on equal rest since 2020. This is influenced heavily by their 3-11 record ATS with equal rest last year.
The Bucs may be one of the most fadeable teams in the league for the upcoming season because they would have been 0-14 without Tom Brady last year. However, they have a similar coaching staff and roster with Baker Mayfield at the helm. Good luck, Bucs. The Baker Bucs get the Chicago Bears at home in Week 2. If you’re looking to fade the equal rest trend, you’ll want to be on Chicago.
Best & Worst NFL Teams After a Bye Since 2020
Since 2020, four NFL teams have been 0-3 when coming off a bye week. The Cleveland Browns are no surprise on this list. They’ve been a mess for the last few seasons, and it shows in how they perform coming off a bye week.
Baltimore is among the 0-3 ATS teams, which is a surprise. The Ravens have a solid coaching staff and have run the same systems on both sides of the ball for years. Even more unusual is that Lamar Jackson was healthy for all three matchups. They did win each of the last two games outright but failed to cover. This is worth keeping an eye on for 2023.
The Ravens’ bye week is Week 13, and they get the Los Angeles Rams in Baltimore. There’s a non-zero chance that the Rams will be heavy dogs heading into Week 14. Look to fade the Ravens if that’s the case.
Seattle and New Orleans are the other two teams. Both 0-3 ATS coming off a bye week since 2020. Both teams have been a bit of a revolving door. Seattle had to turn over most of its roster, and New Orleans has seen its franchise QB ride off into the sunset and its coach move on.
The more interesting trend is the possibility of fading teams that are in transition and haven’t established continuity at key leadership positions. The Ravens appear to be one of the outliers, but this is a trend worth looking into. There are a lot of teams in transition right now.
Steelers, Titans, Colts
Regarding the best teams after bye weeks, both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are 3-0 ATS after by weeks over the past three seasons. The Titans are the only 3-1 team. They had an extra bye week for the playoffs.
The Steelers and the Titans make sense as bankable teams coming out of bye weeks because they’re both organizations that have maintained continuity for a while. Vrabel has been on the sidelines for the Titans since 2018, and Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers’ head coach since 2007. The Colts have turned over their coaching staff and roster this off-season and may be among the teams worth fading after their bye week, depending on the line and matchup they’ll draw.
Pittsburgh’s bye week comes in Week 6, and they go on the road to LA to face the Rams. Look to be on the Steelers after the early rest. The Colts’ bye week is in Week 11, and they get the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12. This is one to watch, but if Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew are playing well, look to be on Indianapolis coming off the bye week.
Where can I find additional NFL gambling coverage ahead of the 2023 season?
Do you still want more NFL coverage as we ramp up to the regular season? The Sports Gambling Podcast Network has you covered. The Sports Gambling Podcast covers all things NFL with Best Ball fantasy drafts, team previews, and more. The NFL Gambling Podcast is also starting to ramp up with best bets for season totals and awards. So listen to our experts, follow their advice, and LET IT RIDE.