Quarterback Prop Bets: One Prop Bet For Each Quarterback

Quarterback Prop Bets: One Prop Bet For Each Team
Quarterback Prop Bets: One Prop Bet For Each Team

July is here!  This means we’re only one month away from our first preseason games!  Today we’re all digesting the news that Baker Mayfield has been traded to the Carolina Panthers, and it has us thinking about Quarterbacks.  Specifically, quarterback prop bets.  Coincidentally, these were recently released on sportsbooks, and now we’re trying to find the best NFL futures bets we can.  As we look at over-under passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing yards we are giving you one best quarterback prop bet for each starting Quarterback. If you’re looking for more action check out the latest in NFL betting.

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Quarterback Prop Bets: One Prop Bet For Each Team

Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards:  4100.5
Over (120)/Under (+100) Passing Touchdowns:  31.5

After the drama of last year’s preseason and not knowing if Aaron Rodgers would even play, he came out and threw for 4,115 yards and 37 touchdowns.  This year there are no doubts about whether he will play, but there are some surrounding his receivers.  The Wide Receivers heading into the beginning of the year are Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and rookie Christian Watson.  The fact that Rodgers’ NFL futures prop bet numbers are close to his output from last year doesn’t make sense to me.  Rodgers lost Davante Adams, who accounted for 32% of his target share, 1553 yards, and 11 touchdowns.  I think the other receivers will struggle to match Adams receiving output.

Best Bet:  Rodgers Under 4100.5 passing yards (-110).

Baker Mayfield – Carolina Panthers

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards:  3800.5
Over (120)/Under (+100) Passing Touchdowns:  22.5

Just when we thought all the quarterbacks had arrived at new teams, a new face shows up in Carolina.  The Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, most likely indicating the end for Sam Darnold.  Mayfield only played 14 games last year but was on pace for 4,093 yards. If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy and contributes in the passing game like a few years ago, I actually prefer the Panthers’ passing offense more than the Browns.

Best Bet:  Mayfield Over 3,800.5 passing yards (-110)

Carson Wentz – Washington Commanders

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3700.50
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 23.5

Carson Wentz finds himself on yet another team as he tries to regain the form he had with Philadelphia.  Last year after being labeled as injury-prone, Wentz managed to play all 17 games.  He finished the year with 3,563 passing yards and 27 passing touchdowns.  Wentz leaves one of the best Running Backs in Jonathan Taylor as well.  Taylor took pressure off the passing game and allowed for excellent play-action opportunities.  While Terry McLaurin seems like an upgrade at receiver, he actually had 29 fewer yards, and one less touchdown than Michael Pittman.  Wentz staying healthy is unlikely, and this feels like a downgrade in terms of Quarterback play.  This should result in a downgrade in fantasy ouput for the offense as a whole.

Best Bet:  Wentz Under 3700.5 passing yards (-110)

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys

Over (+100)/Under (-120) Passing Yards:  4350.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 31.5

The biggest question you have to ask yourself when looking at the NFL futures for Dak Prescott is whether losing Amari Cooper hurts him.  Last year with Cooper accounting for 865 yards, Prescott finished with 4,449 passing yards and 37 touchdowns.  Additionally,  the Cowboys have one of the easier schedules against defenses according to rankings provided by Fantasy Tool, FantasyPros, and RotoWire.  I don’t think losing Cooper hurts enough to lower his passing yards with an easier schedule.

Best Bet:  Prescott over 4350.5 passing yards (+100)

Daniel Jones – New York Giants

Over (-120)/Under (+100) Passing Yards: 3650.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 20.5

Last year Daniel Jones only played 11 games.  However, he was on pace for 4,352 yards and 17 touchdowns.  His offensive line should be improved, and Saquon Barkley will hope to stay healthy to alleviate pressure off the passing game.   Returning most of the same receivers and the upgrades on the offensive line should only help Jones.

Best Bet:  Jones over 3,650.5 passing yards (-120)

Davis Mills – Houston Texans

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3700.50
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 21.5

It was a surprise to some that the Texans decided to begin the year with Davis Mills as their starter again.  His Quarterback prop bets are hard to peg because this team is still in such a rebuild, and it’s hard to see on paper if they’ve improved any.  For a team that looks to focus on the run game, it’ll be interesting to see if Lovie Smith’s defense can hold opponents to low enough scores.  Last year Mills was on pace to throw for 3,483 yards and 20 touchdowns.  I don’t see that they’ve done enough to raise the passing yards by over 200 yards, especially considering the poor offense.

Best Bet:  Mills under 3700.5 passing yards (-110)

Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4550.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 29.5

Nobody’s NFL futures looked to gain more value than Derek Carr when the team traded for Davante Adams.  Carr and Adams used to be teammates at Fresno State, and their reunion in the NFL could be electric.  Last year Carr threw for 4,804 yards and 23 touchdowns.  Now they replace Bryan Edwards with Adams. Therefore his over/under prop bet for passing yards doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  Yes, throwing for 4,551 yards isn’t an easy accomplishment. However, we’re talking about a Quarterback who has exceeded 4,000 yards four years in a row.  The addition of Adams could lead to his best year yet.  Sprinkle a little on the Quarterback prop bets for most passing yards as well.

Best Bet:  Carr over 4,550.5 passing yards (-110)
Bonus Bet: Most Passing Yards (+1000)

Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3650.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 22.5
Rushing Yards Over (+100)/Under (-120):  725.5 and Rushing Touchdowns:  8.5 (-115)

While the addition of A.J. Brown should help Jalen Hurts and the passing game, I’m not even focusing on that aspect of the game for this electric runner.  Last year, Hurts finished with 3,144 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 784 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns.  He was on pace to run for 888 yards and 11 touchdowns.  The fact that his over/under NFL futures is under what he did in 15 games last year is confusing to say the least.  Looking at all the Quarterback prop bets, I like taking a chance on most rushing touchdowns as well.  He tied for sixth last year.

Best Bet:  Hurts Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-115)
Bonus Bet:  Most Rushing Touchdowns (+2000)

Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints

Over (-120)/Under (-+100) Passing Yards: 3750.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 26.5

The Saints will again try their luck at having Jameis Winston at Quarterback.  It was a small sample size, however, Winston was on pace for 3,125 yards and 37 touchdowns last year.  Wide receiver Michael Thomas should be back after missing last year due to injury, and they added speedy rookie Chris Olave.  It’s easy to assume Winston will beat last year’s pace of 3,125 yards passing, but the touchdowns prop bet seems safer.

Best Bet:  Winson Over 26.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

Jared Goff – Detroit Lions

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3850.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 23.5

The Detroit Lions couldn’t win enough with Matt Stafford as their quarterback so it doesn’t seem like Jared Goff will do the trick either.  It’s really hard to gauge his quarterback prop bets.  Last year he was on pace for 3,940 yards and 23 touchdowns.  While this would hit the over set for this year, I just can’t help myself fading Goff.

Best Bet:  Goff Under 3,940 passing yards (-110)

Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

Over (+100)/Under (-120) Passing Yards: 4,450.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 34.5

Last year, Joe Burrow had 4,611 passing yards in 16 games.  They didn’t lose any of their main receivers and replacing C.J. Uzomah with Hayden Hurst doesn’t seem like it’s a step-down.  Don’t overthink this one. Even if defenses do cover Ja’Marr Chase better, Higgins and Boyd are very reliable.

Best Bet:  Burrow over 4,450.5 (+100)

Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

Over (+100)/Under (-125) Passing Yards: 4,400.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 35.5
Rushing Yards Over (+100)/Under (-120):  575.5 and Rushing Touchdowns:  6.5 (-115)

Much like Hurts, Josh Allen is another player I’m not even focusing on the passing part of his NFL futures prop bet.  Although, it should be noted he exceeded both last year with 4,761 yards and 38 touchdowns.  Instead, I’m focused on the rushing aspect of his Quarterback prop bets.  Last year Allen ran for 763 yards and six touchdowns.  While this was the most he’s rushed for since his rookie campaign, I don’t see it regressing.  Allen running will be a big part of this offense.

Best Bet:  Allen over 575.5 rushing yards (+100)

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3,350.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 18.5
Rushing Yards Over (-110)/Under (-110):  500.5

I know Justin Fields has a lot of doubters, and I get it.  However, one thing you shouldn’t doubt is the fact that he will most likely be running for his life. Which he does extremely well.  Last year in 12 games, Fields ran for 420 yards.  That’s on pace for 642 rushing yards, and I actually think he’ll run the ball more this year.  This feels too easy, but I’m taking it anyways.

Best Bet:  Fields over 500.5 rushing yards

Justin Herbert – Las Angeles Chargers

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4700.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 36.5

Last year Justin Herbert finished with 5,014 yards and 38 touchdown passes.  This year Herbert returns with the same supporting cast, except for the addition of Gerald Everett.  Cook is a good Tight End, but at this time in their careers, Everett is more athletic.  So why do the NFL Futures have his Quarterback prop bets 300 yards less than last year?  Your guess is as good as mine, as I think Herbert finishes in the top two passing yards for the second year in a row.

Best Bet:  Herbert over 4700.5 passing yards

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4200.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 31.5

Maybe one of the most misjudged players because of his lack of ability to show up in primetime, Kirk Cousins puts up outstanding statistics though.  Last year he finished with 4,221 yards and 33 touchdowns in 16 games.  Wide receiver Adam Thielen also missed four games to injury.  He was on pace for an additional 223 receiving yards and three more touchdowns.  Additionally, KJ Osborn should continue to develop, and the Running Backs could continue to get over 60 receptions.  I get it, he’s Kirk Cousins. However, he’s exceeded 4200.5 yards four times in the last six years.

Best Bet:  Cousins over 4200.5 passing yards (-110)

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Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4050.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 25.5
Rushing Yards Over (-115)/Under (-115):  525.5 and Rushing Touchdowns Over(+110)/Under (-140): 7.5

Most think due to his speed and athleticism that Kyler Murray runs for a lot of yards.  However, last year in 14 games he finished with 423 rushing yards and five touchdowns.  He added 3,787 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns as well.  This year DeAndre Hopkins starts on the suspended list, and Christian Kirk is on the Jaguars.  A.J. Green and newcomer Marquise Brown will be the starting receivers.  One is past his prime unfortunately, and the other will likely need to take time to build chemistry.

Best Bet:  Murray under 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)

Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3600.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 24.5
Rushing Yards Over (+100)/Under (-130):  900.5 and Rushing Touchdowns Over(-115)/Under (-115): 6.5

After a down year last year with some injuries, Lamar Jackson has some lower Quarterback prop bets.  In 12 games Jackson “only” ran for 767 yards and two touchdowns.  He exceeded 1,000 yards in the previous two years, missing one game each year.  He was also on track last year for 4,082 passing yards, so there is some value on the over 3,600.5 passing yards.  However, I can’t stray from his rushing abilities.

Best Bet:  Jackson Over 900.5 rushing yards.
Bonus Bet:  Most Rushing Touchdowns (+3000)

Mac Jones – New England Patriots

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3950.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 23.5

I realize the prop bet market expects numbers to go up after Quarterbacks gain experience, but I still don’t see enough supporting cast in the passing game for Mac Jones.  I also think they continue to focus on running the football.  The NFL Futures are probably right on the money for both passing yards and touchdowns, so I am going to bank on a game or two missed.  Last year Jones had 3,801 passing yards and 22 touchdowns.

Best Bet:  Jones under 3950 passing yards (-110)

Matt Ryan – Indianapolis Colts

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3950.5
Over (+100)/Under (-120) Passing Touchdowns: 25.5

It’s going to be weird seeing Matt Ryan on a team that isn’t the Atlanta Falcons.  However, he has one of the best Running Backs in the league to help take pressure off of the passing game.  Last year Ryan had a down year in touchdown passes, only throwing for 20 in total.  Also last season, Carson Wentz threw 27 passing touchdowns in this offense.  Even past his prime, I’ll take Ryan over Wentz.

Best Bet:  Ryan over 25.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

Matt Stafford – LA Rams

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4500.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 34.5

What a year Matthew Stafford had in his first season on the Rams.  The Super Bowl-winning quarterback threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns.  A year later, Robert Woods is gone but has been replaced by Allen Robinson.  The Quarterback prop bets released by sportsbooks make it seem like they’re valuing Robinson to finish with 300 yards and 7 touchdowns, fewer than Woods put up in half a year.  I can’t make that make sense.

Best Bet:  Stafford over 4500.5 passing yards (-110) and over 34.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4650.5
Over (-120)/Under (+100) Passing Touchdowns: 34.5

Last year Patrick Mahomes finished with 4,839 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns.  However, he now loses Hill.  Hill accounted for 24% of the target share, which equated to 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns.  I don’t feel comfortable saying JuJu Smith-Schuster can replace that.  I don’t even feel comfortable saying Smith-Schuster can exceed 1,000 yards.  I like Mahomes, but I think this is a tougher team to exceed with than it was a year ago.

Best Bet:  Mahomes under 4650.5 passing yards (-110)

Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4100.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 31.5

For the first time in his professional career, Russell Wilson is on a new team.  Last year with the Seahawks, Wilson played 14 games, throwing for 3,113 yards and 25 touchdowns.  That was on pace for 3,780 yards and 30 touchdowns had he played all 17 games.  Now, after being traded to Denver, he has a receiving group that is good, but maybe not as good as having D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.  He also joins an offense that is a run-first offense.  I just don’t see him exceeding last year’s pace by over 300 yards.

Best Bet:  Wilson under 4100.5 passing yards (-110)

Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3700.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 21.5

Last year Ryan Tannehill threw for 3,734 yards and 21 touchdowns.  He loses A.J. Brown, who before his injury was on pace for 26% of the target share, 1,136 yards, and six touchdowns.  Do I think a veteran recovering from an injury like Robert Woods will fully replace Brown?  No.  Do I think Treylon Burks could have a decent year?  Yes.  But this is a team that’s primed to run the ball down your throat over and over with Derrick Henry. As a result, I don’t see Tannehill’s numbers getting better.  I like the under for yards better than the touchdowns in case Mike Vrabel gets sneaky around the goal line to fool defenses.

Best Bet:  Tannehill under 3700.5 passing yards (-110)

Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over (+100)/Under (-120) Passing Yards: 4,650.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 35.5

I don’t know if Rob Gronkowski will stay retired or not, but I’m also not sure it will affect Tom Brady‘s quarterback prop bets.  I have been on the wrong side of fading Brady, thinking he wouldn’t do as well outside of New England, and it didn’t work out for me.  Not to mention I think Brady returns angry from the playoff loss.  He led the league last year with 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns.

Best Bet:  Brady over 4650.5 passing yards (-110)

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4000.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 22.5

Last year didn’t go as planned for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.  He finished with 3,641 passing yards and 12 touchdowns.  Now, under a new coach, the NFL futures bettors must ask themselves one question.  Did the Jaguars do enough to increase his passing total by 359 yards?  My answer is no.

Best Bet:  Lawrence under 4000.5 passing yards (-110)

Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers

Over (+100)/Under (-120) Passing Yards: 3600.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 21.5
Rushing Yards Over (-140)/Under (+100):  500.5 and Rushing Touchdowns Over(-120)/Under (+100): 5.5

This may be the hardest prop bet to pick because the 49ers haven’t officially named Trey Lance their starter.  Coach Kyle Shanahan has said he’s ready, but he has yet to make a decision.  I don’t feel good about any of these, so I’ll take the passing yards under on a run-heavy team.

Best Bet:  Lance Under 3600.5 passing yards

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 4000.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 22.5

Last year Tua Tagovailoa was on pace for 3,469 yards and 20 touchdowns.  Does Tyreek Hill add 600 yards of receiving value?  Probably.  Do I trust Tua to be successful and play the full season though?  My answer is my best bet.

Best Bet:  Tagovailoa under 4000.5 passing yards (-110)

Zach Wilson – New York Jets

Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Yards: 3800.5
Over (-110)/Under (-110) Passing Touchdowns: 22.5

Last year Zach Wilson started 13 games in his rookie season.  He finished with 2,334 yards and nine touchdowns.  Those numbers had him on pace for 3,052 yards and 11 touchdowns had he played all 17 games.  He’s expected to take a step forward, and they drafted Garrett Wilson to help him develop.  However, will he take an 800-yard and 11-touchdown step forward?

Best Bet:  Wilson under 3800.5 passing yards (-110)

Lines Not Available

We currently don’t have lines on the Seattle Seahawks.  My guess is sportsbooks are afraid to commit to having Drew Lock or Geno Smith as a starter as much as Pete Carroll is.  There also aren’t any lines available for the Steelers, though as soon as they are, my recommendation is to take the over on Mitch Trubisky’s numbers.  I think he surprises everybody this year.  Last, the other quarterback prop bets that aren’t available are for the Browns.  DeShaun Watson’s situation is muddier than an Iowa river in spring, and who knows which way it will go.  These three NFL futures will have to wait to get their prop bet analysis.


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