Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 5

Let's Talk About Teasers - NFL Week 5
Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 5

Since taking over the “Let’s Talk About Teasers” weekly Reddit post, I have done a deep dive into the statistics and historical data surrounding this type of bet and the value that the Wong teasers can bring to bettors.

This is a brief overview of the work I have done to revamp and standardize the tracking of the lines that fall into this criteria so we can continue to find the value in this type of bet. For a more in-depth look at Wong teasers visit the Wong Teasers Week 5 Reddit Post.

Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 5

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It’s not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

– Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Historical Teaser Records

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 54-15 78.3%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-6 80.6%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 16-0 100.0%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are teasers specifically for my book so yours may differ in NFL Week 5.

Here are the 2021 results so far:

Teaser Spread Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 17-4 80.95%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 6-1 85.71%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 7-0 100%

This Week

As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Record 10pt Record
Seahawks +3 54.5 8-0
Jets +3 46 9-1
Football Team +2 44 10-3-1 11-3
Browns +1.5 47 6-0 6-0
Bills +3 56.5 9-2
Vikings -9 49.5 3-0
Patriots -9 52 5-3

My Plays This Week

2u 10 Point Teaser – Seahawks +13, Bills +13, Buccaneers PK -130

You will notice this pick doesn’t fit the Wong teaser criteria for the Sweetheart Teaser but I have had success in the past taking lines that are juiced to -120 for the underdog that has a good chance of moving to +2.5 while there is still value at +3.

In my head, it also made sense to tease the -10 to -10.5 line of the Buccaneers to a Pick em. There are stats to back this up as well. Since 2017, lines from -10.5 to -11.5 teased down 10 points have hit at an 85% rate which meets the value criteria for the implied odds for a -130 play.

1u 10 Point Teaser – Seahawks +12.5, WFTs +12, Browns +11.5 -130

The Wong Criteria Sweetheart Teasers have been perfect so far this season and we have 3 this week on my book. Going to ride them till the wheels fall off. Last season there were only 5 losses all season long.

1u 6 Point Teaser – Bills +9, Vikings -3, Patriots -3 +125

I love the Bills this week. The Chiefs’ defense is really not good this year and Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have been on an absolute tear over the past couple of weeks, but the way it looks right now is this might actually be a square play. Also taking both of the favorites we are getting this week. I like the Patriots coming off that loss to the Bucs on Sunday, Mac Jones really came into form and gained a ton of confidence. The Vikings are also a teaser machine lately and it looks like they are also good as a favorite according to the historical stats. This is one of my favorite teasers heading into NFL Week 5.

I will have more most likely and you can follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move.

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