Another winning week in this space at UFC Vegas 32 means I’m on a bit of a heater. But do you know what’s not hot? This week’s UFC offering. It’s a weak, weak, weak card. But, as I’ve said time and time again – the quality of the card does not have any effect on the quality of our gambling earnings. So, let’s get this party started with my UFC Vegas 33 predictions.
UFC Vegas 33 Predictions
All odds courtesy of PointsBet
Sean Strickland (-225) vs Uriah Hall
My MMA Gambling Podcast cohost and I disagree on the main event, but I’m riding with the chalk in Sean Strickland over Uriah Hall. While Hall is a scary knockout artist, Strickland has only been KO’d once in his 26-fight career. Plus he’s the superior grappler in this matchup, which I think he can ride to victory if he chooses.
Kyung Ho Kang (-140) vs Rani Yahya
Another one we disagree on, but I promise I’m not just picking Kyung Ho Kang because he is nicknamed ‘Mr. Perfect’ like Curt Hennig was. Rani Yahya is a grappling wizard, but Kang is a strong grappler himself and has only lost one fight via submission. Kang’s size and superior striking will carry the day here (I hope).
Gloria de Paula (+142) vs Cheyanne Buys
Ok, let’s get some plus money now, shall we? We’ve got two women’s strawweights matched up here, both looking for their first UFC win. I’m betting (literally) that Gloria de Paula will be the one with her hand raised, as her power striking (three knockouts out of five wins) could cause Cheyanne Buys issues.
Niklas Stolze (-178 – not on PB yet) vs Jared Gooden
Jared Gooden is taking this match on less than a week’s notice, which normally is bad news (short notice fighters only win 40% of the time over the past year and a half). Plus he doesn’t seem to be on Niklas Stolze’s level, so Stolze is the pick, at a decent price.
Ryan Benoit (-140) vs Zarrukh Adashev
Two flyweights who struggle to make it down to the 125-pound weight limit match up here in Ryan Benoit and Zarrukh Adashev. These are also two flyweights in desperate need of a win. Adashev is a former pro kickboxer who surprisingly has lost to strikers in both his UFC career fights, but Benoit also has the grappling chops to ride that route to victory.
Bryan Barberena (-270) vs Jason Witt
Bryan ‘Bam Bam’ Barberena had a recent scary health issue where ruptured arteries were pouring blood into his stomach, but he’s back and ready to go. All seven of Jason Witt’s career losses have come via finish (five knockouts and two submissions), so I think Bam Bam is going to knock him out here.
Nicco Montano (-250) vs Wu Yanan
Bet you didn’t know a former UFC champion is on this weak card? That would be the UFC’s first Women’s Flyweight Champion, Nicco Montano, who has had a snakebitten career since being crowned, with injuries and weight cutting issues causing her to only fight twice in the octagon since she debuted four years ago. Assuming she is still at a similar level she was last time in the cage (two years ago), she should take care of Yanan.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (-145) vs Collin Anglin
We have two debuting UFC fighters in this featherweight prelim fight. While Melsik Baghdasaryan is only 5-1 in MMA, he has extensive pro kickboxing (and some pro boxing) experience. There’s a good chance he lights up Collin Anglin on the feet in this one.
Rafa Garcia (-300) vs Chris Gruetzemacher
Rafa Garcia has won seven of his 11 pro fights via submission, while Chris Gruetzemacher has lost three times (out of four) via submission. So, it looks like we have a nice chance for a Garcia via submission prop bet here.
Danny Chavez (-105) vs Kai Kamaka III
This pick ’em fight could be a slugfest, between ‘The Colombian Warrior” and ‘The Fighting Hawaiian’. I’m backing the Colombian, Danny Chavez to win this war.
Jinh Yu Frey (+115) vs Ashley Yoder
Time for some more plus money, in former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion Jinh Yu Frey, fresh off her first UFC win in three tries. She should be able to dictate where this fight takes place against Ashley Yoder as she’s the better grappler.
Ronnie Lawrence (-155) vs Trevin Jones
Trevin Jones is taking this fight on short notice, so we’ve got to fade him here. Additionally, Ronnie Lawrence is no slouch, with a 7-1 pro record with four knockouts.
Orion Cosce (-165) vs Philip Rowe
In the curtain jerker, Orion Cosce is my pick. While he’ll be at a significant size disadvantage here, here’s the better all-around fighter and should be able to overcome it.
Overall Record: 468-382
Return on Investment: -(10.4)%
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