Another exhibition between two high profile golfers and NFL quarterbacks tees Tuesday, July 6th. The team of Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady take on Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers on the golf course. Here are the best bets for Match 4 from The Reserve at Moonlight Basin.
The Match Betting: Four Best Bets for Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady
Bryson DeChambeau Hits 1st Fairway – Yes -215
It’s a lot of juice, but this prop is a layup. The first hole at The Reserve is a sweeping downhill 463-yard Par 4. The golf course plays at over 7,000 feet, which means the ball will fly farther for everyone. At that elevation, Bryson can’t hit the driver on this hole because the ball will fly far too far. Instead, Bryson will likely opt for a mid-iron to hit the ball 300 yards into the middle of the fairway. The landing zone is 70 yards wide and sets Bryson up with a pitching wedge to the green. Don’t be afraid to lay the juice on this one. Bryson is hitting the fairway on 1.
Tom Brady Hits 1st Fairway – Yes +100
Tom Brady epically struggled with the driver off the tee at the Match II. However, once Phil Mickelson instructed Tom Brady to hit iron off the tee it worked out much better for him. This format once again is a modified alternate shot, and it’s very advantageous to get a good drive from the amateur so the professional can hit the wedge shot into the green. And at 7,000 feet of elevation, Tom Brady won’t lose much distance off the tee. The two will likely use a similar strategy of making Tom club down to ensure he puts his ball in the middle of the 70-yard wide fairway to set up an approach from Phil. Pick Tom Brady to hit the fairway on one.
Considering the first two bets to make are both Bryson DeChambeau and Tom Brady hitting the fairway, why not go all the way and bet that all four players hit the fairway at +500!
Leader after Hole 1 – Tie -125
Given the nature of the format and the starting hole, a tie is a very likely outcome at reasonable juice. The format is a modified alternate shot. That means everyone will tee off, each team picks the best drive. It’s an alternate shot to the green after that.
The first hole is not a tough hole, so bogey is likely out of the equation. But Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady will have to hit a clutch golf shot or putt in order to make birdie. One scenario is they’ll hit a bad tee shot and have to hit the approach into the green. Another scenario is Bryson or Phil will set them up with a decent look at birdie but have to hit a clutch putt right out of the gate. Unless Bryson or Phil stuff one inside 5 feet, both teams will likely be walking off the hole with a par. They’ll be all square heading into the 2nd.
Winner of The Match 4 – Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady +135
Betting the underdog in The Match is 2-1. Phil Mickelson was an underdog to Tiger Woods at Match I and won outright. Tiger and Peyton Manning were the favorites at Match II and held on to beat a hard-charging Phil and Brady duo on 18. And underdog Phil Mickelson and Charles Barkley wiped the floor with Steph Curry and Peyton Manning at Match III.
At the end of the day, this is an exhibition match. It’s a silly, loosey-goosey format without any real stakes to the winner besides pride. And it involves two amateurs who have very unpredictable games. Tom Brady doesn’t have a round of golf recorded on the GHIN since April 2020. And based on his showing last May at Medalist, he’s a very shaky 8 handicap. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers currently boasts a golf handicap of 4.6. But his last four rounds have been awful. Rodgers has played four rounds in June 2021. All were in the 80s with an average differential of 8.3.
The golf course should be a very easy one for both Phil and Bryson, which puts them on a level playing field. And both NFL Quarterbacks enter this Match with very questionable form. As such, the best bet is the pick the underdog at plus money to win Match 4.