While this week’s UFC event has big shoes to fill after last week’s gonzo UFC 261, we don’t need crazy fights to win money. In fact, under-the-radar events like this weekend are a good opportunity to take advantage of some lines that haven’t had much action on them yet. So, without further ado, I present to you my UFC Vegas 25 predictions.
All odd courtesy of PointsBet
UFC Vegas 25 Predictions
Jiri Prochazka (-135) vs Dominick Reyes
I’m ALL OVER this line – I’m loving -135 for Jiri Prochazka. While he has only fought once in the UFC (a knockout victory over Volkan Oezdemir), he has extensive experience fighting in Japan against elite talent. He should be able to overpower Dominick Reyes on Saturday, and if you want even better money take him via knockout (24 of his 27 career wins are via KO).
Giga Chikadze (-175) vs Cub Swanson
If the grizzled veteran Cub Swanson can turn this into a grappling battle, he might stand a chance. But if it stays a striking one, the kickboxer turned MMA fighter Giga Chikadze has a decisive advantage. A winner of all five of his UFC fights, he also has a significant size and reach advantage, which should come in handy on the feet.
Ion Cutelaba (-140) vs Dustin Jacoby
This light heavyweight battle is tough to pick, as Ion Cutelaba has been knocked out in his last two fights. However, Dustin Jacoby is taking this fight on only 10 days’ notice, and fighters taking fights on short notice only win 35% of the time. Cutelaba is also a better grappler and a more active striker.
Sean Strickland (-270) vs Krzysztof Jotko
Sean Strickland has sneakily moved his way into the elite of the middleweight class in the UFC. This is all the more impressive when considering he was on the shelf for two years from 2018 to 2020 due to a serious motorcycle accident. I like him making it four-straight wins this Saturday night.
Merab Dvalishvili (-260) vs Cody Stamann
Merab Dvalishvili is a monster on the mat, and after a sputtering start to his UFC career (he dropped his first two fights) he has since reeled off five straight. He should be able to take Cody Stamann down at will and grind himself out another W.
Poliana Botelho (-250) vs Luana Carolina
I’m not a big fan of a number this big for this matchup, but my job is to pick winners and pick winners I will. The last we saw of Luana Carolina was her getting a gnarly knee injury last summer, so that might explain the odds being where they are. Regardless, Poliana Botelho is the pick as she’s the better and more powerful striker.
Luana Pinheiro (-185) vs Randa Markos
I hate to pick against fellow Canadians, but it tends to be profitable when I do. Luana Pinheiro will be making her UFC debut on the strength of six-straight wins, all via finish. A submission wizard, she has flashed power in her last two fights, winning via knockout.
Jonathan Pearce (+165) vs Gabriel Benitez
After being extremely chalky up to this point, let’s roll the dice on some live dogs. Jonathan ‘JSP’ Pearce is bigger, younger, and the superior striker to veteran Gabriel ‘Moggly’ Benitez. He also has better grappling stats through his first few UFC fights.
T.J. Brown (+120) vs Kai Kamaka III
Let’s get really crazy and take back-to-back underdogs. T.J. Brown is bigger and a much better grappler, which I expect him to ride to victory on Saturday’s prelims.
Loma Lookboonme (-375) vs Sam Hughes
After getting TKO’d in her UFC debut by Tecia Torres, Sam Hughes gets another tough assignment this weekend in Muay Thai ace Loma Lookboonme. Lookboonme is going to be too much to handle in the striking realm, and I expect her to get a decision victory.
Luke Sanders (-150) vs Felipe Colares
‘Cool Hand’ Luke Sanders has been quite inconsistent as of late, swapping wins and loses over his last four fights. Considering he lost his last fight, he’s due for a win, right?! He also lands SIX TIMES more strikes per minute than Felipe Colares.
Andreas Michailidis (-260) vs KB Bhullar
KB Bhullar is Canadian, so you know what I have to do here. Plus Andreas Michailidis is a real good-looking prospect, so treason I shall commit once more.
Overall Record: 397-328
Return on Investment: -(13.2)%
UFC Vegas 25 Predictions Related Posts