It’s the third week of my NFL Stats Cheat Sheet. Check out Week 4 and Week 5 for the previous two. Now, it’s time for NFL Week 6 Stats and best bets for three premiere matchups this weekend: Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans, and Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Download the full NFL Week 6 Stats Cheat Sheet PDF for all of my matchup statistical research.
Checkout the downloadable PDF for the NFL Week 6 Stats Preview
NFL Week 6 Stats and Best Bets
Bears vs Panthers
Panthers improvement on defense from week to week, especially their pass defense, is surprising. In Week 1 and Week 2, they gave up 34 and 31 points respectively. However, over the past three weeks, their defense has allowed only 17.6 points per game.
So far the Panthers defense has only allowed 6.1 yards per completion, which ranks #4 in the league. Carolina is one of the worst ranked rush defenses, allowing 5.4 yards per rush ranking #31. If the Bears get the run game established, the clock will move quickly.
Bears are ranked #9 in yards per play allowed (5.2), #3 in yards per completion allowed (6.1), and #15 in yards per rush allowed (4.4). They’re also only allowing 20 points per game.
In each quarter, their defense is allowing less than six points per quarter. Chicago also ranks #4 in second half points allowed (9.0). With these teams improving each week and both ranking top 5 in yards per completion allowed, I expect this game to be a defensive grind with a heavy run game on both sides.
Best Bet: Under 44.5
Texans vs Titans
The Texans’ net rating in yards-per-play and yards-per-play allowed is +.8. That is tied for third best in the league. After the firing of Bill O’Brien, Houston scored 30 points against the Jags. Sure, Jacksonville is a very bad secondary, but it’s a start. The most-glaring Texans offensive stat is their rank of #1 in yards-per-completion at 12.6.
Houston’s offense is also ranked #4 in yards-per -play (6.4). However, these stats haven’t translated into touchdowns. Hopefully, with Bill O’Brien gone, I expect to see this offense loosen up. Deshaun Watson is averaging 275 passing yards per game, and he is building that chemistry with Bradin Cooks.
Titans’ defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in both yards-per-completion-allowed (#18) and are dead last in yards-per-rush-attempt-allowed (5.5). The Texans’ offense should flourish against a suspect Titans defense this week.
Best Bet: Texans Team Total Over 26
Browns vs Steelers
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns are off to a hot start this season at 4-1. However, their competition has not been stiff. Their opponents have a combined record of 7-12-1. Cleveland only ranks #13 in offensive-yards-per-play (5.8) and are an average defense sitting at #15 allowing 5.7 yards-per-play.
The more impressive team so far is the Steelers. Their defense quietly ranks top 10 in yards-per-play-allowed (#4), yards-per-completion-allowed (#8), and yards-per-rush-attempt-allowed (#2). They are also allowing only 21.8 points-per-game. Pittsburgh should be able to shut down the Browns’ rushing attack, especially without their lead back Nick Chubb.
Also, the Browns have lost 16 straight games in Pittsburgh with their last win coming in 2003-2004 season.