NFL Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Picks For DraftKings, FanDuel (Sunday, Nov 10)

Here in Week 10, we’ve fallen victim to the Wrath of the Byes!

Missing six teams from the entire week of action from Thursday through Monday (Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, Texans, Redskins, Jaguars), and six other teams due to primetime game scheduling on the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night ventures (Chargers, Raiders, Vikings, Cowboys, Seahawks, Niners), this makes for some rather interesting scopes of players at each position. This is especially evident at quarterback, where we find Brian Hoyer priced above other starters of the week (such as Baker Mayfield).

I’ll attempt to shed some light through this minefield of mediocrity, as well as perhaps some unturned stones of value waiting in the wings…

WEEKEND UPDATE (SAT, NOV. 9):

Oh boy…we’ve got some major potential chalk let-downs on this Bye Week-riddled Week 10 Main slate! And thankfully for my contrarian ass, Kalen Ballage is not among them. Potential let-down? No question…he’s on the Dolphins. But if we’re going to play that game, go ahead and run me back the 2019 season of rostering Keenan Allen at $7,500+ and get back to me on that argument of only playing high-salaried position players.

So on that note, how Ronald Jones has managed to whittle his way into the public masses’ good graces is a bit beyond me, considering Arizona doesn’t have the worst rush defense by any means (alas, they’re not the greatest either) and his productivity has tended to come on vulturing red-zone drives that come up a few yards short for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (see: first drive last weekend in Seattle, where Mike Evans and penalties set-up Jones to punch it in). Don’t get me wrong, I will be getting my shares of Jones at $4,300 on DraftKings, but my inclination is to be under the field in lieu of Ballage exposure and that is the stand of Week 10 I will be dying on hills for across the GPP landscape. (And, why do I get the feeling like it’s going to be Peyton Barber we’re cursing at around 4:15 pm on Sunday?)

One dart-throw I find to be intriguing is in the return of Tre’Quan Smith, who returned to Saints practice this week. He’s by no means a top target-getter, but his connection with Drew Brees is promising. In 2018, Smith was the fourth-highest targeted player on the New Orleans offense following behind Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Ben Watson (now in New England). Smith was also the third-most targeted member of the Saints offense in the red zone, just at about 10 percent. Priced $3,200 on DraftKings and with essentially next-to-zero ownership, I’m going to be about 15X the field on Tre’Quan Smith at that rate. It will take very little to pay off that tag against a God-forsakenly awful Atlanta Falcons secondary.

Finally, it appears that Mike Gesicki is the tight end chalk (and not Rhett Ellison, to that extent anyhow) from everything I am gathering from the public, and while it’s by no means a terrible play given his price and recent productivity, it may behoove you to pivot to spend-up option Jonnu Smith on a Tennessee Titans team who’s going to be without Corey Davis (which makes me really love A.J. Brown this week as well at $4,300 on DK). Jonnu will be coming in somewhere in the vicinity of half the ownership as Gesicki, and at only a $400 difference on DK. I’m not suggesting to fade Gesicki, but if you’re a mass multi-entry player like myself, you know every bit as much that being far too overweight on one value player can accidentally happen much easier than one would imagine. Something to be cognizant of when approaching your roster builds and sculpting your player pools for Sunday.

Best of luck this weekend and I encourage you to get at me on Twitter (@TopherSquints) for additional updates, one-on-one roster talk, and/or to find a way to work an “Epstein Didn’t Kill Himself” joke into yet another conversation of yours (if that happens to be your shtick).

Quarterback

Drew Brees, NO ($6,700 DK/$8,300 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

I’m not sure if you’ve seen this Atlanta Falcons secondary, but they’re pretty damn bad. Like, Buccaneer bad. And while there are plenty of lousy to mediocre defensive secondaries in the league (I know that’s a moderately wide spectrum suggested there), few are consistently as putrid as that of the Falcons, whose happens to rank 31st overall per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, only besting that of the Season Tank Job Master Miami Dolphins.

Also of note is that the Saints have the 7th overall passing offense in the league per the same ranking system…and this was accumulated with Teddy Bridgewater. Featured in a divisional home game just following a bye week, Brees should knock this one out of the park. I would look to pair him with a minimum of one of his Saints pass-catchers in all formats.

Other Cash QBs:

Lamar Jackson, BAL ($7,300 DK/$8,600 FD)
Jameis Winston, TB ($6,800 DK/$7,900 FD)
Kyler Murray, ARI ($6,500 DK/$7,700 FD)
Jared Goff, LAR ($6,200 DK/$8,100 FD)

Other GPP QBs:

Aaron Rodgers, GB ($6,600 DK/$8,000)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA ($5,200 DK/$7,100 FD)
Daniel Jones, NYG ($5,700 DK/$7,400 FD)
Sam Darnold, NYJ ($5,800 DK/$7,200 FD)

Dart-Throw QB:

Kyle Allen, CAR ($5,100 DK/$7,000 FD)

Running Back

Kalen Ballage, MIA ($3,800 DK/$4,600 FD)

Consideration: GPP (Large Entry Field Sizes)

I know, and can hear it chanting in my head already: “There’s a difference in being contrarian and just being stupid”, and among other matter-of-factly counter-opinions (likely from the same crowd falling over their own toes to pound the Chalk cymbals that bust half the time anyway…at higher prices than $3,800).

How my mind works is I’m seeing an Indianapolis run defense that ranks 27th overall DVOA, a Dolphins offense featuring a depleted backfield (along with other things in general), and a price tag under $4,000 for a guy getting a [supposed] bulk of the carries and likely trying to prove himself after vying for the starting position over the past year now. The Dolphins offense, despite being in tank mode, is at least scoring with Ryan Fitzpatrick now (rather than Josh Rosen).

I highly doubt he’ll kill you at this salary cost and stands a good chance of paying it off against this lacking Colts rush defense. I’m going to make Kalen Ballage my Week 10 Jaylen Samuels (Samuels was like 725% owned last weekend), and I’ll let you make the decision for yourselves to roster him at all. Totally cool with me.

Other Cash RBs:

Christian McCaffrey, CAR ($10,500 DK/$10,500 FD)
Mark Ingram, BAL ($7,100 DK/$8,000 FD)
Marlon Mack, IND ($7,000 DK/$7,400 FD)
Jaylen Samuels, PIT ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD)

Other GPP RBs:

Aaron Jones, GB ($7,400 DK/$7,600 FD)
Nick Chubb, CLE ($7,000 DK/$7,900 FD)
Jamaal Williams, GB ($5,200 DK/$5,600 FD)
Devin Singletary, BUF ($5,000 DK/$6,700 FD)

Dart-Throw RB:

Kareem Hunt, CLE ($3,000 DK/$4,500 FD)

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder, NYJ ($5,000 DK/$6,500 FD)

Consideration: Cash Games, GPP (All Entry Field Sizes)

Both sides of the game in this melee at the Meadowlands looks appealing from a GPP perspective, but specifically Jamison Crowder due to his price point combined with his potent ceiling given his sheer number of raw targets he gets, especially when Darnold gets a rhythm going with him (Week 1 Crowder had a massive 17 targets for 14 receptions).

He tied Le’Veon Bell for most Jets team targets last week against the Dolphins (nine), producing eight receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 22.3 DraftKings Fantasy Points. Against a New York Giants defense who’s surrendered the fifth-most passing yards on the year and ranking 27th in DVOA against the Pass (per Football Outsiders), I’m looking to get to much of Crowder at his frugal price point.

Other Cash WRs:

Michael Thomas, NO ($8,300 DK/$8,700 FD)
Chris Godwin, TB ($7,400 DK/$8,200 FD)
Cooper Kupp, LAR ($7,300 DK/$8,100 FD)
Tyreek Hill, KC ($7,700 DK/$8,000 FD)
Zach Pascal, IND ($5,300 DK/$6,400 FD)

Other GPP WRs:

Mike Evans, TB ($7,600 DK/$8,600 FD)
Davante Adams, GB ($6,900 DK/$7,800 FD)
Christian Kirk, ARI ($5,200 DK/$5,700 FD)
Josh Reynolds, LAR ($3,800 DK/$5,200 FD)
D.J. Moore, CAR ($5,200 DK/$5,800 FD)

Dart-Throw WR:

Cody Latimer, NYG ($3,000 DK/$5,000 FD)

Tight End

Rhett Ellison, NYG ($2,500 DK/$5,000 FD)

Consideration: GPP (Large Entry Field Sizes)

It seems like a reach, but it’s the looming status of Evan Engram that has me pondering the possibilities roster-wise considering how much Daniel Jones loves to target his tight ends, regardless of Engram’s health (although it helps Ellison massively with him off the field).

Ellison is facing a New York Jets defense that’s below league average against the tight end position (17th overall), and Ellison’s targets have only been increasing since the weeks have progressed. His first three weeks were his worst outings on the year, which lower his overall target average (go figure: the Eli weeks). But if you look past Week 3, his targets were as follows: 4, 1, 7, 2, 2, 5.
While Ellison has only been targeted in the red zone just over 6% of the time this season, Evan Engram has been the highest red zone target by percentage and volume (14 targets, 2 TDs, 28.57 target %), and I believe that’s in part an element stitched to Jones’ love for targeting his TE1 in general. If Engram sits out this game, Ellison becomes a must-play in my opinion. Otherwise, a fine large-field GPP play regardless.

Other Cash TEs:

Mark Andrews, BAL ($5,200 DK/$6,800 FD)
Austin Hooper, ATL ($5,500 DK/$6,600 FD)
Mike Gesicki, MIA, ($3,100 DK/$5,300 FD)
Jonnu Smith, TEN ($3,500 DK/$5,100 FD)

Other GPP TEs:

Travis Kelce, KC ($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD)
Greg Olsen, CAR ($3,600 DK/$5,100 FD)
Eric Ebron, IND ($3,900 DK/$4,900 FD)
Jack Doyle, IND ($3,600 DK/$5,200 FD)