With the All-Star Game in the rearview, we look ahead to the second half of the NBA season. There are a lot of intriguing storylines as the games wind down for the end of the year. While there are a lot of ways to get down with your predictions, there are none better than Kalshi. With the prediction markets over at Kalshi, not only can you get down with some predictions, but you can trade out of those positions when you like the way the market has turned. With that in mind, we’ve picked out three spots for the NBA second half for you.
NBA Second Half Markets on Kalshi – February 17th
Cleveland Wins this Season?
One of the first spots that I like here is Cleveland to come up short of 50 wins. To start, they are barely on track to do that as is. They come out of the break with a .618 winning percentage. In an 82-game season, that comes out to a 50.6-win projection. That does not give them a large margin for error on a buy that is going to cost you $0.86 per share.
On the other side of things, I also think confidence for their current state is skewed. After acquiring James Harden, the team won their last three games prior to the break. They headed into the break feeling and looking like juggernauts. However, it is worth mentioning that those three games came against each of the two worst records in the league and a Nuggets team featuring Jokic with a banged up ankle.
With Harden’s track record when switching teams, I think that this is a mirage that’s bound to end.
Which team will win the Draft Lottery?
There is tanking and then there is whatever the Bulls are doing. Despite being poised for at least a play-in spot, they blew things up in an epic way at the trade deadline. Their actions seemed like they may have entered a Kalshi market about which team would acquire the most second round picks – and they won by a mile.
All jokes aside, the reset button has been hit in Chicago. They are clearly not interested in winning and are even resting starters late into games. Guys like Yuki Kawamura are getting tons of burn and they even just added dunk-king Mac McClung to the fold. As a result, you’re going to see a team that has a .436 win percentage take a nose dive. That’s going to continue to raise their chances at the top lottery pick.
Even if you don’t hold on to the position through the end of the year, you have to imagine this is a spot you’ll be able to trade out of for a nice profit.
Eastern Conference Champion?
As early as the turn of the year, Cleveland was at just $0.13 a share to win the Eastern Conference. As I shared above, I think this is a sell-high spot of the Cavaliers for a number of factors. If that were true, you have to image that some of that share price will sprinkle down into the Celtics pockets. Currently listed at $0.22, I think you can extract a lot of value, and that’s even if you don’t believe in the squad.
In addition, there are two things that give me the confidence in this team. The first is that Nikola Vucevic is still figuring out the rhythm of playing with this team. As a does, he is going to create a lot more openings for Boston on offense. Additionally, there is still the Jayson Tatum of it all. If you are planning on selling out of a spot, wait until Tatum notes that he’ll be back. The number is going to fly up, at least for a moment – making this a profitable play regardless.
If you’d like even more picks and predictions that you can use to play on Kalshi’s Prediction Market, be sure to check out the Sports Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping plenty of episodes to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
