The Mediocre Monday slate is in the rear-view mirror, and we’ve got a Super Tuesday slate with over 30 games on December 16th. Big East conference play tips off, and we get a lot of Power Five programs in action. We’ve found a trio of college basketball picks that you’ll want to lock up for tonight’s action. Let’s dig into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for December 16
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 76-51-2
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 9-34
Louisville at Tennessee
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Louisville comes into this game with a 9-1 overall record and 0-1 record on the road. The Cardinals are 7-3 against the spread overall and 0-1 ATS in road games.
Tennessee enters this matchup with a 7-3 overall record and a 5-0 record at home. The Volunteers are 3-7 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.
The handicap for this game is really simple. Tennessee is at home and on a three-game losing streak. The Vols have dropped neutral site games to Kansas and Illinois and lost a road game at Syracuse.
Louisville has played one true road game this year. They lost at Arkansas by nine. They’re on a two-game win streak with home wins over Indiana and Memphis.
Tennessee lost to Kansas after the big win against Houston. Neutral site MTEs are weird and have weird results. The Vols lost at Syracuse as a favorite. Unexpected and a little embarrassing for a proud program. Next was a loss at a ‘neutral site’ in Nashville to Illinois. The Vols losing in Tennessee? If that doesn’t wake up the Volunteers, they’re in for a rough ride in conference play.
This version of Tennessee still has the nasty defense, but they’re better on the offensive end than in previous seasons. That’s good because the Vols will need to score to stay in front of the high-powered Louisville offense. However, they should come out motivated, have the home floor, and need this game to get their season back on track. Let’s lock up the Vols to win by at least two points.
Best Bet: Tennessee -1.5
Florida State at Dayton
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Florida State enters this game with a 5-5 overall record and an 0-1 record on the road. The Seminoles are 5-5 ATS and 1-0 ATS on the road.
Dayton comes into this matchup with an 8-3 overall record and a 6-0 mark at home. The Flyers are 5-6 ATS overall and 2-4 ATS at home.
Florida State is on a four-game losing streak. The Seminoles dropped neutral site games to Texas A&M, Houston, and UMass. They also dropped a home game to Georgia. The Seminoles have to be a bit desperate after struggling through their non-conference schedule. They have Mississippi Valley State and Jacksonville up next, so they don’t have a look-ahead until they start ACC play. Florida State has traveled once already and covered on the road.
Dayton’s three losses are to Virginia, Cincinnati, and BYU. They do have Power Five wins against Georgetown and Marquette.
Florida State comes in with a really potent offense and a defense that should be able to hang with Dayton. The Flyers have an efficient offense and play solid defense, especially at home. Florida State is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation. That’s an advantage that they have over Dayton. This should be a one-possession game, and we’re getting two with the points. Florida State probably won’t win this outright, but they should be motivated to stay within the number. Their offense will need to hit shots, but let’s lock up the Seminoles plus the 6.5 points.
Best Bet: Florida State +6.5
Chicago State at Bowling Green
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Chicago State comes into this game with a 2-9 overall record and a 1-8 record on the road. The Cougars are 4-6 ATS and 3-6 ATS on the road.
Bowling Green enters this matchup with a 7-3 overall record and a 4-2 mark at home. The Falcons are 5-3 overall ATS and 2-2 ATS at home.
This is one of the easiest handicaps on the board. Chicago State just won outright against Loyola-Chicago on the road, and now they travel to Bowling Green? The Cougars might lose by 25. Chicago State lost to Illinois State by 42, Youngstown State by 23, and Purdue-Fort Wayne by 23 in their three previous true road games. Bowling Green is far from a wagon, but they should cruise over Chicago State off a road win. Let’s lock up Bowling Green and lay the 20.5 points.
Best Bet: Bowling Green -20.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
