Week 11 of the NFL is here, and it’s time to set our NFL confidence pool picks once again. Only two weeks are on bye this week, giving us a plethora of games to choose from. We’ll need all the options as nine games this week have betting spreads of 3.5 points or less. On top of that, after Thursday Night’s lopsided matchup, only two games have spreads of 7.0 or more in Week 11.
Last week was a challenge; we got nine of the 12 picks correct, but unfortunately, two of the high-confidence picks got us, with the Bills losing to Miami. I never should have trusted the Panthers last week, but against the Saints, I did, and unfortunately, that bit us. We’re back to get revenge this week, and I love the feel going into the weekend. The Saints can’t hurt us this week, as they are on bye along with the Indianapolis Colts.
Sunday kicks off with the final international game of the year, this time in Spain. The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins will square off in that one. Sunday’s 1:00 window is headlined by the Buccaneers at the Bills. The afternoon features the Seahawks at the Rams and the Chiefs at the Broncos. Sunday Night Football might be the game of the week with Detroit at Philadelphia. Then just take all the overs on Monday night with Dallas at Las Vegas.
Week 11 NFL Confidence Pool Picks
High Confidence Picks
1.Texans Over Titans
2.Cowboys Over Raiders
3.49ers Over Cardinals
4.Dolphins Over Commanders
It’s easy to kick this off with the Texans over the Titans. The Titans are a horrible football team, and that’s really all you need. Even with Davis Mills starting again, expect the Texans’ defense to easily handle the Titans.
If the Monday game is included in your pool, this is a good one to add near the top. The Cowboys and Raiders is a matchup of two bad teams, but weirdly enough, Dallas is the better bad team with Geno Smith limping into this game, literally. The Raiders are going to struggle to keep up with Dak and company.
The San Francisco 49ers take on an Arizona Cardinals team that may be even more beat up than they are. Marvin Harrison is out after his appendectomy, and Brock Purdy is finally set to return for the 49ers. San Francisco should take care of business pretty easily in this one.
The Miami Dolphins are an early game over in Spain, but coming off a big win over Buffalo, I love their momentum. Everything is falling apart in Washington, and they are missing Jayden Daniels. Miami is a decent team and the better of these two right now.
Confident Picks
5.Ravens Over Browns
6.Chiefs Over Broncos
7.Steelers Over Bengals
8.Falcons Over Panthers
9.Packers Over Giants
AFC North matchups are always a little scary, but it’s go time for the Ravens as they look to make a playoff push. Cleveland can make this a game, but give me Lamar to ball out and take care of business in a cold, windy game.
The Kansas City Chiefs are firing on all cylinders after a slow start. This is going to be a slugfest and probably a close game, which is where I always want Patrick Mahomes.
The Bengals upset the Steelers a few weeks ago in their first matchup. Time for Steelers revenge. I just don’t see a way this team loses to Cincinnati twice. Joe Flacco is still banged up, even coming off the bye week, and Rodgers and company shine.
The Falcons lost to the Panthers 30-0 earlier in the season. That’s not happening a second time. This Falcons team I wouldn’t call good, but they are serviceable, and the Panthers have largely been bad on the road.
I hesitated to put the Packers in this group because the Giants are live on the moneyline this week with both the fired coach bump and the ultimate leader bump as Jameis Winston comes into the game. But the Packers are simply the much better team, and Winston’s reckless nature will likely work out for Green Bay.
Toss-Ups
10.Bears Over Vikings
11.Eagles Over Lions
12.Rams Over Seahawks
13.Chargers Over Jaguars
14.Bills Over Buccaneers
The Bears get a chance at Revenge for their early-season loss. They dominated the Vikings until JJ McCarthy came in and led the comeback. The Bears have found their groove lately and they’ll get the win this time.
The Eagles and Lions is going to have an amazing game. I’ve said it all season, and I’ll say it again today. The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in football. They are the home team, so I’ll take them in this exciting matchup.
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks is a heavyweight matchup that could go either way. Sean McVay might be able to dust off a ghost or two to make Darnold see and squeak out a win.
I’m reluctantly taking the Chargers in this one because I am a well-known Jaguars lover for 2025. I think this is a great bounce-back spot for the Jaguars, and the betting line (+2.5) shows that just might be the case. Overall, I think the Chargers are the better team, though, so pick your poison.
The truest toss-up game this week is the Buccaneers at the Bills. Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen is a Dawg matchup at quarterback. I’m taking the Buccaneers to keep it close and cover the spread, but I do think Buffalo sneaks out the win.
