The 2025 college football season is fast approaching, and expectations are soaring for several top programs. Win totals give fans and bettors a way to evaluate potential success. With some teams facing tough schedules and roster changes, predicting the right side of these totals takes research. The following analysis covers six major teams and whether they will exceed or fall short of expectations.
College Football Win Totals
Ohio State Buckeyes – Over 10.5 Wins
Ohio State enters 2025 with momentum after winning the national title last season. The Buckeyes are led by coach Ryan Day, who boasts a 70-10 record in his tenure. Although Ohio State lost coordinators and breaks in a new starting quarterback, their depth remains unmatched in the Big Ten. The offense is reloaded, and several blue-chip recruits are ready to contribute. Key games include a massive opening week matchup against Texas and the annual showdown with Michigan late in the year. Ohio State’s average projected win total sits at 10.3 by SP+, with expectations to lead the Big Ten. Many predict another playoff run, and some projections have them seeded in the top two of the College Football Playoff. Given this, look for Ohio State to reach and exceed 11 wins, as their talent edge and schedule set up well for a deep run. Expect the Buckeyes to go over 10.5 wins at +104
Oregon Ducks – Under 10.5 Wins
Oregon’s run of 25-3 over two years positions them among the college football elite. However, 2025 starts with big questions about returning production. Only one offensive starter returns, and just five defenders return from a group of 19 who played meaningful snaps. While coach Dan Lanning’s recruiting—including notable transfers—has been strong, the learning curve for so many new contributors in a Power conference is steep. Oregon faces a tough Big Ten schedule with early tests, and their margin for error shrinks with so many key departures. While Oregon could compete for a playoff berth, projections like SP+ put them at around 10.1 average wins, a shade below the 10.5 mark. The odds of reaching 11 wins against a challenging slate seem slim unless new faces develop quickly. Take the under on Oregon’s 10.5 win total at -144.
College Football Win Totals
Florida Gators – Over 7.5 Wins
Florida’s defense is returning most of their unit that played like a top-25 group late last year. The biggest concern is depth and talent on the interior defensive line, especially in matchups against powerhouses like Texas, Texas A&M, and Georgia. The edge rushers are elite and the linebackers must step up, but there is faith this corps can deliver. Offensively, the Gators made key transfer portal additions, and young playmakers are expected to emerge. I see Florida as a sneaky playoff contender, with nine wins being a very realistic outcome if they avoid injury trouble and steal a key upset. The schedule presents challenges, but the Gators are projected to build off their late 2024 success. That momentum points towards them going over 7.5 wins in 2025 at -106
Georgia Bulldogs – Under 9.5 Wins
Georgia faces a rare season of uncertainty heading into 2025. Former starter Carson Beck is gone, and new quarterback Gunner Stockton has not started at this level. The offensive line lost three first-round picks, and Georgia replaces several starters on the defensive front as well. Last season, the Bulldogs had one of the SEC’s weakest ground games, creating even more pressure on a rebuilt offensive unit. The 2025 schedule is also unforgiving, featuring home games with Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss and road trips to Tennessee and Auburn. While some remain optimistic due to Georgia’s recruiting and coaching pedigree, key voices like David Pollack are projecting a 9-3 record given all the unknowns. The talent level is still high, but I don’t see the Bulldogs winning double-digit games. Take the under for Georgia at 9.5 +134
College Football Win Totals
North Carolina Tar Heels – Under 7.5 Wins
North Carolina begins 2025 in a period of transition. Bill Belichick’s arrival delivers star power and discipline, but early recruiting struggles highlight challenges in building a new culture. The Tar Heels rely on several transfers, most notably quarterback Gio Lopez, who arrives after a strong season at South Alabama. However, offensive weapons and a retooled defense bring uncertainty, and much depends on untested or recently acquired players. With a challenging ACC schedule and a roster in flux, projecting a winning season is risky. Many analysts also place UNC below the eight-win threshold, banking on a rebuilding year. Until the influx of talent proves itself, I think the safer bet is the under 7.5 wins for the Tar Heels at -168.
Navy Midshipmen – Under 8.5 Wins
Navy surprised many by roaring to a 10-3 record and reclaiming the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in 2024. They return foundational pieces on both offense and defense, avoiding much of the roster churn seen elsewhere in the AAC. The 2025 schedule offers early confidence-builders, rivalry clashes, and a prime opportunity to build momentum towards another conference title bid. However, advanced projections such as SP+ pin Navy at 7.9 average wins and fifth or sixth in the AAC pecking order. Much depends on replicating last year’s offensive explosiveness and holding off surging programs like UTSA and Memphis. While the team’s development is admirable, achieving a second straight nine-plus win season against a deeper and more competitive AAC will be difficult. Take the under on Navy’s 8.5 win total at +112
