The College Football Playoff is finally here! The first round kicks off this weekend with the higher seeds hosting home games. SMU heads to University Park, Pennsylvania, where the Nittany Lions and about 100,000 fans will await them in Beaver Stadium. This one will kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET on TNT/MAX. Let’s dive in and take a look at this College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State preview and predictions.
#6 Seed Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions of Penn State led by quarterback Drew Allar went 8-1 in B1G play in 2024 and 11-1 in the regular season. They fell to the Oregon Ducks in the B1G title game by a score of 45-37. Unfortunately for Penn State they suffered a big loss in the transfer portal this week with backup quarterback Beau Pribula their run package specialist will no longer be with the team.
Penn State’s only regular season loss came at the hands of Ohio State who took them down in Happy Valley 20-13. They survived an overtime bid against USC and a late season scare against the Minnesota Gophers to make it to the B1G title game.
#11 Seed SMU Mustangs
The Mustangs of SMU are new to big conference football. The once prestigious program joined the ACC in July of 2024 and their first season was a stellar one. Led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, the team went 8-0 in conference play and 11-1 in the regular season. They lost an absolute thriller in the ACC title game to the Clemson Tigers.
SMU’s lone regular season loss came in a close one at home to BYU. The Cougars took down the Mustangs by a final score of 18-15. The Mustangs stood up to any big tests sent their way in the form of ranked Louisville and Pitt teams. Beating Louisville on the road, and Pitt at home in the comforts of Gerald R. Ford Stadium in Dallas.
The weather forecast is calling for mid to upper 20s for kickoff with winds of around 10-15 mph. Depending where you look, snow could play a factor in this game as well, as Happy Valley has already received their fair share this week.
College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State Preview and Predictions
Penn State -8 (-115)
SMU has been a great story joining a major conference, getting close in the title game and making the inaugural 12 team College Football Playoff. I think their luck ends here, they’ve stood up to almost every test put in front of them, but now they have to face a B1G team. A challenge I’m not sure they are quite ready for.
A Dallas, Texas team traveling to a hostile environment up north in the cold, maybe the snow. Penn State and Drew Allar are going to show up and play the best version of Nittany Lion football. Penn State is 4-1 against the spread as the favorite in their last five games. SMU showed cracks getting down big early to Clemson last week, they valiantly fought back and made it a game, but I expect Penn State to take advantage of that weakness and not let them back into it.
Drew Allar Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
It’s pretty shocking this Drew Allar rushing prop is so low. The 6-5 Junior quarterback for Penn State has shown a rushing prowess this season. Last week in their loss to Oregon Allar rushed for 54 yards on just five carries. He’s gone over the 15 yard mark in three of the last four games and in eight games this season.
SMU gave up more than 15 rushing yards to the quarterback last week against Clemson and the week before to Cal, both of the Cal quarterbacks almost crossed this number. SMU’s rushing defense has been good overall which will make Penn State have to get more creative and make ways for Allar to run. In addition, he’ll have to pick up the running slack left from the transfer of Beau Pribula. If you get a chance to ladder Allar’s rushing yards later in the week, I’d do it.
