After an incredible 2022-2023 NBA regular season, we have an exciting postseason. That means only one thing, great NBA Finals bets.
I will update this page regularly during the playoffs to view my NBA playoff predictions. In addition, after each day of games, the results of my NBA Playoff simulations will change.
That is why you should bookmark this page to track changes in the odds.
NBA Playoff Simulation 2023 | Daily Updated NBA Finals Odds
NBA Playoffs Simulation
I do an NBA Playoff simulation for the NBA Playoffs to calculate the probability of a team winning. I do this by simulating the entire playoffs 25,000 times. This is something that sounds more complicated than it is.
The key is to assign each team a power rating. I then take one team’s power rating and subtract their opponent’s power rating.
For example, Team A has a power rating of 25, and their opponent Team B has a power rating of 22. Based on this, Team A should be a 3-point favorite.
NBA Playoffs Homecourt Advantage
The next step is determining the value of homecourt advantage. During the regular season, homecourt is worth an extra 2.5 points. For the playoffs, it is worth four points based on historical results. When factoring in homecourt advantage, Team A is a 7-point favorite at home and a 1-point underdog on the road.
This is why weaker teams with homecourt advantage are important in the playoffs. If a slightly weaker team becomes a favorite if they have a homecourt advantage.
NBA Power Rankings
For my power rankings, I copy the work of other sports bettors. In addition to this, I put more weight on betting markets’ power ratings.
I could have chosen to make my own power ratings, but I trust the betting markets and sharper sports bettors more.
Once I put together the playoff bracket, I can simulate win probabilities for each game. For example, for my NBA playoff simulation, if Team A is a 7-point home favorite, they should win 74.5% of the time based on historical odds. That means that 74.5% of the time, Team A will show up as the winner of the game in my NBA playoff simulation, and 25.5% of the time, Team B will show up as the winner.
Once I run the simulation 25,000 times, I then have a large enough sample size to come up with a good NBA playoff prediction.
Updated 2023 NBA Playoffs Simulation Results
| Team | Championship Winner | Championship Winner Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 19.50% | 412 |
| Boston Celtics | 17.00% | 489 |
| Phoenix Suns | 14.50% | 588 |
| Golden State Warriors | 10.00% | 900 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 7.00% | 1327 |
| Denver Nuggets | 6.60% | 1410 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 6.40% | 1459 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 4.70% | 2031 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 4.70% | 2039 |
| Sacramento Kings | 3.10% | 3164 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.50% | 3930 |
| New York Knicks | 1.20% | 8093 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 1.00% | 9858 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 0.60% | 17827 |
| Miami Heat | 0.40% | 26694 |
| Toronto Raptors | 0.30% | 34491 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 0.30% | 32687 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.10% | 77129 |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.10% | 179610 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.10% | 184930 |
Interpreting The Results
There are two columns next to each team name, the percent of the time that they win the NBA Championship, and what their odds should be priced at or their breakeven price.
If a team has a breakeven price of +442 and is priced at +400 or +385, then you should avoid betting on that team. However, if another team has a breakeven price of +1300 and you can bet on them at +2000, then that is a good bet.
Odds Shopping
Sportsbooks have wildly different pricing on NBA Playoff Futures, particularly for longshots. On average, sportsbooks have about a 20% edge on outright markets, but you can lessen their edge by only betting at sportsbooks that have the best price on the team you are looking for.
2023 NBA Playoff Prediction
Stay tuned for more articles.
