NFL Prop Bets Week 10 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) back to the studio for NFL prop bets Week 10, and all three keep landing on Hunter Henry against the Lions. For the degen plays, Ryan Kramer builds a five-leg tight end touchdown parlay while CJ Sullivan wants four quarterbacks to throw two picks apiece.
The Best NFL Prop Bets Week 10 Start In The NFC South
Ryan Kramer opened with a nugget he refused to bet. Trevor Lawrence sits 246 yards shy of 20,000 career passing yards, but the Jaguars keep blowing teams out and sitting him late, so Kramer passed. His real first play went to Carolina: Bryce Young 250-plus passing yards at +108. The Panthers still rank among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation. The spread is only two and a half points, and Kramer thinks NFC South games like this one tend to turn into mini shootouts. Then there’s the Saints defense, which gave up 297 passing yards to Cleveland last week. If New Orleans allowed that, Young can get to 250 with Darren Waller to throw to.
Sean Green stayed in the game and went the other way. He likes Jordyn Tyson over 41.5 receiving yards for the Saints, because the Panthers secondary is soft and sits at or near the bottom of the league in havoc rate. Without much pressure, Sean expects the Saints quarterback to be slinging it. Tyson also played a limited snap count in his first game back, and those restrictions should be gone now. Kramer immediately asked how long before the hamstring goes again. That kicked off a victory lap from CJ Sullivan over the best ball crowd that ignored Tyson’s injury history all summer. CJ loves this game too, but he joked that a parlay of both quarterbacks throwing four touchdowns is only 56 to 1, and he doesn’t get out of bed for less than 80 to 1.
Deshaun Watson’s Revenge Game And Jonathan Taylor’s Carries
CJ’s first prop leans on the Cleveland offensive line getting pushed around in Houston. With Deshaun Watson back for his revenge game against the Texans, CJ expects a lot of pressure and a lot of dump-offs, so he’s on Dylan Sampson over 3.5 receptions at +112. Sampson has 12 catches over the last three games. He caught six two weeks ago with Watson and still caught four last week without him. Watson’s passing game lives at five yards and under, and that is exactly where a running back gets fed when the pocket collapses. Kramer said he flagged Sampson to Sean over the weekend, probably regardless of which quarterback plays.
Sean stayed in that game for Casey Concepcion over 49.5 receiving yards. Concepcion went eight for 129 against the Titans with Watson, and he still put up four for 85 against the Saints without him. James Houston defense has looked a little better lately, but J.J. McCarthy had his way with it, and Sean thinks the Browns even left yards on the table against Tennessee. Another pass catcher in that offense is banged up and hadn’t practiced this week, so Sean figures he either sits or plays limited. Either way, that only pushes more volume toward Concepcion at home in a revenge spot for his quarterback.
Kramer’s second prop is a run-it-back: Jonathan Taylor over 68.5 rushing yards. The Colts held onto him at the deadline, so there’s no reason to handle him like a trade chip anymore, and Indianapolis also just shipped out two receivers. The number has already climbed from 64.5 to 68.5. Kramer was still surprised to see it sitting below Ollie Gordon on the other side, whose props Sean said were in the 70s. CJ is with Kramer on this one, mostly because the Taylor household sounds a lot calmer now that nobody is shopping for a mansion in a new city.
Carson Beck, Fernando Mendoza And A Plus-Money Kicker
Two rookie quarterbacks make their first starts this week, and the last real game either one played was against each other in the national championship. CJ turned that into a theme bet. Carson Beck and Fernando Mendoza both face tough defenses in Seattle and the Rams, and both one-interception props are heavily juiced, with Beck at -185. So CJ parlayed them together, and the Indiana-Miami reunion pays +160. Kramer called it thinking outside the box, because it gets you both plays without laying all that juice on either one by itself.
Sean’s angle on Mendoza is his legs. Rookie quarterbacks in their first game like to throw interceptions, but they also like to run, so he’s on Mendoza over 12.5 rushing yards. Mendoza ran a decent amount at Indiana, where sack yardage drags down college rushing totals, and he was happy to run in big spots in the title game. The Raiders don’t have an amazing offensive line either. CJ added that the plan reportedly includes a lot of bootlegs. Sean thinks the fair number is closer to 20 and called it very ladderable.
Kramer found what he called a big mistake by the books. Chad Ryland over 1.5 field goals is +136, and it has cashed in three of the last four weeks. The last time Ryland played the Rams, he kicked six. Most kickers in this market sit at minus money, with Ka’imi Fairbairn around -200, so a plus price tells you what the market thinks of the offense. But Kramer doesn’t mind Carson Beck getting into range for a kicker with a big leg. He also loves the idea of an opening-drive field goal, and at +136 he isn’t asking for much more than that.
Kirk Cousins Feeds The Tight Ends
Kirk Cousins is starting again in Minnesota, and CJ went straight to the guy Cousins trusts most. In 18 games with Cousins at quarterback, T.J. Hockenson has 113 receptions for 997 yards. Cousins loves a checkdown, and CJ expects plenty of them in a first game where the timing with everyone else should be rusty. The Packers aren’t especially generous to tight ends, but CJ doesn’t think it matters. He thinks the 39.5 yards hits as well, but he took Hockenson over 4.5 receptions because it’s plus money. Before that, the guys spent a while on Cousins memorizing every staffer’s name, which they found either brilliant or deranged depending on who was talking.
Sean went to George Kittle 80-plus receiving yards at +182 against Dallas. Kittle has destroyed the Cowboys in almost every game he’s played them, and Sean expects Brock Purdy to keep feeding Kittle and Christian McCaffrey against a defense that looks lost. Kramer loves Kittle too. Then Kramer talked himself into Josh Downs over 21.5 receiving yards. If Downs plays a snap share like the depth receivers did last week, that’s around 22 snaps and maybe 11 routes. Two targets against a secondary the Bengals just torched should get there, and as Sean pointed out, one catch can do it.
CJ’s other receiver play is in Houston. C.J. Stroud recently called Xavier Hutchinson the backbone of the team, and Hutchinson leads Texans wide receivers in slot alignment at 53% of snaps, ahead of Tank Dell. Kramer added that he leads the room in wide receiver snaps, period. Cleveland allows nine yards per target to the slot, and Hutchinson had 65 yards last week, yet his number is only 27.5. So CJ took the over 27.5 receiving yards. Then he snuck in a ladder anyway, with 67.5 yards paying +425 and 87 yards paying +1050.
Germany, Jamo And Sean’s Bonus Props
Kramer spent a while on Amon-Ra St. Brown ahead of the Germany game, mostly so the guys could do accents. St. Brown is fluent in German, his mother is German, and there’s a giant picture of him on the side of the stadium. Kramer’s warning is that the -110 anytime touchdown price reflects all that hype, and St. Brown is banged up. If you want him, play receptions, since he’s averaging almost 11 targets a game over his last five. Then Kramer went to a different Detroit receiver: Jameson Williams over 24.5 yards on his longest reception at -104. Jamo has cleared that in five straight games, with long catches of 31, 46, 30, 39 and 49.
Sean miscounted when he wrote up his card, so he gave out two extras. The first is Tony Pollard under 55.5 rushing yards. The Jaguars have held all eight lead backs they’ve faced under 59.5, with Derrick Henry topping out at 57 and Woody Marks at 56, and Sean expects Pollard’s team to be playing from behind. Then came Bijan Robinson over 28.5 receiving yards against Kansas City, where five of six RB1s have beaten their total. That led CJ to laugh at the Giants for calling about Bijan at the deadline. Kramer would make that call every time, though two firsts is steep and Abdul Carter is untouchable.
CJ closed his card back in the Germany game with what he called an easy handicap. The Lions are dead last against tight ends by far, and the Patriots have no wide receivers to speak of. So he likes Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions at plus money, and he likes the 35.5 receiving yards too. CJ pointed out that made it plus money on every one of his plays this week. It also set up the rest of the show, because the guys kept coming back to Henry.
Underdog Targets And Hunter Henry Ladders
The Underdog entry stayed with pass catchers: Tyler Warren higher than 8.5 targets, Hunter Henry higher than 3.5 receptions and Casey Concepcion higher than 7.5 targets. Henry had no targets line posted, so receptions it was. Kramer pushed back on settling for a small payout after Henry and Warren alone sat at 4.15x, so Concepcion went in and a $100 entry now returns $857. CJ likes the Concepcion volume because he camps out within five yards and Watson just peppers him.
Then both hosts laddered Henry. Kramer went receptions and started at five, with over 4.5 at +240, six catches at 5 to 1 and seven at +910. He even made the case that an A.J. Brown return could help Henry. Sean went yards instead: 50 at +182, 60 at +287, 70 at +443, 80 at +680 and 90 at 10 to 1, which Sean said Henry could reach on seven catches. CJ summed it up as a double Henry ladder sitting on top of the props and the Underdog card.
CJ’s ladder came from the Colts-Dolphins game, which somebody called a Week 18 game in November. Steichen said that with Downs out, there will be a lot more for Anthony Gould and Deion Burks, and CJ thinks Burks slides right into that role against a Miami secondary he doesn’t trust. His line is only 17.5 yards. The ladder runs 38 yards at +220, 48 at +340, 68 at 9 to 1, 78 at +1550 and 88 at +2200, the highest rung the book would give him. CJ also figures the Colts play looser now that the deadline is over and nobody is getting moved.
Three Degen-Only Longshots
Kramer built a five-leg anytime touchdown parlay out of tight ends: Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson with Cousins back, Darren Waller around the red zone for Carolina, Trey McBride and George Kittle. McBride is roughly 3 to 1, which Kramer called the longest price you’ll ever get on him, because Carson Beck is starting. CJ added that McBride will be the only target monster left in that room this week. The price moved while Kramer was reading it, and a $100 ticket now pays 29,041.
Sean doubled up two of his own props at 92 to 1: Casey Concepcion and Jordyn Tyson both reaching 100 receiving yards. Concepcion just had a 100-yard game, and Sean can see Tyson going off against Carolina. CJ flipped his old two-by-four into a four-by-two, with four quarterbacks throwing two interceptions each. Mendoza is +250, Beck +240, Kyle McCord +320 and Kirk Cousins +280, and together they pay 190 to 1. CJ added that the week after the trade deadline has historically been chaos. Kramer agreed, because the prices on these first-time starters are short and he thinks a sloppy weekend is coming.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Giants Thursday Night Football & Dave Ross
4:59 Bryce Young Over 250 Passing Yards
6:56 Jordyn Tyson Receiving Yards
11:21 Dylan Sampson Receptions
12:12 Casey Concepcion Receiving Yards
16:00 Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards
19:19 Mendoza and Beck Interception Parlay
20:46 Fernando Mendoza Rush Yards
25:13 Chad Ryland Field Goals
32:16 T.J. Hockenson Receptions
33:37 George Kittle Receiving Yards
34:36 Josh Downs Receiving Yards
37:52 Xavier Hutchinson Receiving Yards
39:52 Amon-Ra St. Brown in Germany
45:09 Jamo Longest Reception
46:32 Tony Pollard Under Rush Yards
47:38 Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
49:44 Hunter Henry Receptions
50:20 Underdog Targets Entry
52:55 Hunter Henry Ladders
58:53 Tight End Touchdown & Interception Parlay
1:05:26 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
