The college football season has been an absolute rollercoaster. We’ve had live dogs, fantastic rivalries, letdown spots, and foxhole spots. This season has already seen just about everything, and we still have five more weeks after Week 9 to get through. We’ve made it through our share of twists and turns, but there are still a few more drops before this ride comes to a stop. Let’s dig into the teams to follow and fade in our college football betting analysis for Week 9.
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How should I bet on college football this weekend? Week 9 Analytics & Trends
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern hosts Appalachian State in Week 9. Appalachian State is off a field-storming win against James Madison. Fading the field-storming is a system play, but the advanced metrics like this match up for Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern allows successful plays on just 38.1% of defensive snaps. The Eagles have also done a solid job of limiting explosive plays on defense. Georgia Southern should keep the Appalachian State offense off schedule and limit the explosive plays that the Mountaineers are capable of generating through the air.
Georgia Southern has faced a more challenging schedule this year and is a bit more battle-tested than Appalachian State. The Eagles hung tough against Clemson and Houston. They also took a lead into the fourth quarter on the road at Jacksonville State. Appalachian State has played a much softer schedule. A 41-31 loss to NC State is their lone game against a Power Four school this year.
Given the spot on the schedule, the defensive advantage, and the tougher level of competition, Georgia Southern is the side you’ll want to lock up in this Sun Belt showdown.
Best Bet: Georgia Southern Eagles -5.5
Iowa Hawkeyes
Speaking of spots on the schedule, the Iowa Hawkeyes got stormed on by Minnesota in the Floyd of Rosedale game last week. Wisconsin is also off a big win at home over USC. The spot says fade Wisconsin off the win and ride with Iowa off the loss, but there’s more to the story in the advanced metrics.
Advanced metrics love both defenses. Wisconsin and Iowa both rank among the most efficient defenses in the nation. Iowa is better at keeping offenses off schedule and has a higher overall success rate, but Wisconsin is one of the toughest teams in the league to generate an explosive play against. However, the true strength of the Wisconsin defense is in its defensive backfield. Iowa doesn’t throw unless it has to.
While the Iowa offense will struggle to move the ball, the Wisconsin offense may not move the ball at all. The strength of the Iowa defense is how they limit yards on the ground, and Wisconsin’s passing attack is among the least efficient in the nation. There’s a non-zero chance that Iowa wins this game 3-0.
Keep in mind that Iowa consistently has one of the best kicking games in the nation. Field position will matter in what could be a war of attrition. Also, Iowa needs the bounce back, while Wisconsin is due for a letdown.
Best Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs travel from Dallas all the way to upper New York for a game against Syracuse. SMU has won four in a row since dropping a game at Louisville back in September. Syracuse is off an overtime win against North Carolina. The Orange just played Louisville a few weeks ago and only lost by eight in the JMA Wireless Dome. Syracuse lost to SMU in Dallas by 13 last season.
SMU is much more explosive on the offensive end than Syracuse is. However, the Syracuse defense has done well to limit explosive plays. The Orange have allowed an explosiveness figure of 1.24. That’s actually a better mark than SMU’s 1.30. Also, the Orange can limit SMU’s ground attack. Syracuse’ defensive stuff rate is 23.9% this year. That measures how often they stop running plays at or behind the line of scrimmage.
While SMU is known for an efficient passing game, Syracuse has been one of the sneakier good offenses this year. The Orange average about 450 yards per game and have scored 31.6 points per game. Their offense will need to show up in this matchup if the Orange are going to stay within the number.
Given the travel, the location, and the Syracuse offense, this looks like a solid spot to fade SMU. Syracuse is also catching double digits at home. Let’s lock up the Orange to keep this one within two scores.
Best Bet: Syracuse Orange +10.5
Missouri Tigers
Missouri travels to Fayetteville for a game against Arkansas this weekend. The Tigers are off a road loss to Ole Miss, but they also have a look-ahead spot to Texas in Columbia, MO next week. Arkansas is off a bye week, and they picked up their first SEC victory with a win at Vanderbilt the week before. This looks like a sleepy spot for Missouri, but what do the advanced metrics have to say?
Missouri has a disruptive defense that generates negative plays. However, the Razorbacks have been surprisingly efficient on offense this year. Arkansas has a 42.3% offensive success rate and has done a good job at sustaining drives. Arkansas lacks explosive plays on offense, but they can stay on schedule and stay out of third downs. The Razorbacks have an 83.2% success rate on power runs this year, and their stuff rate on offense is only 18.2%. Arkansas may not rack up chunk plays, but they can keep the chains moving and can generate a push with their offensive line.
The Missouri offense has struggled in the red zone this year. When inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, the Tigers only produce points on 75% of their trips close to the goal line. That’s 123rd in the nation. If Missouri continues to sputter in the red zone, this could matter on the scoreboard and matter when it comes to the cover.
Arkansas has a rest advantage and a home field advantage in this matchup. They’ll need to run the ball successfully on offense and avoid the Missouri pass rush as often as possible. The Razorbacks will also need Missouri to continue to struggle to score in the red zone. However, given what Missouri has on deck, they may get caught looking ahead. Let’s pencil the Razorbacks and the +10.5 points into our card for this week.
Best Bet: Arkansas Razorbacks +10.5
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