MVC Preview: Best Bets 2026-27 Recap
Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac) and Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) break down the 2026-27 Missouri Valley basketball preview, with Drake as a stock up and Belmont as a stock down. Both have UIC winning the regular season, then they split a unit on Drake and Bradley for Arch Madness.
Missouri Valley Basketball Preview: Rewinding Last Year’s Chaos
Ryan McIntyre calls the Valley a throwback league, and it’s hard to argue. It’s a bus league with real home courts, and every town is a college basketball town. It also keeps changing shape, so there are 11 teams in it now. Last season was pure Valley chaos because the sixth seed won the conference tournament. Northern Iowa cut down the nets in Ben Jacobson’s final year, beating UIC 84-74 in the final. Then the Panthers drew St. John’s in the dance. Meanwhile, Belmont won the regular season and got blown out in the quarterfinals, which broke the bracket open. Casey Alexander won 26 games at Belmont on the way out and is now at Kansas State.
Bradley did what Bradley does under Brian Wardle, going 13-7 for another 20-win season. UIC had its breakthrough and got all the way to the title game. Illinois State also broke through with 23 wins and a 12-8 league mark. Murray State matched that 12-8 in Ryan Miller’s first year. Valpo and Southern Illinois hovered around .500. Drake slid in a new era but still reached the tournament semifinals. So Indiana State and Evansville were left in the basement. Troy Chewning points to the international bookends, because Murray State and Evansville both went overseas with very different results. He also loves that juco guys develop here and coaches actually stick around.
New Faces At UNI And Belmont, Bumps At Drake And Murray
Two programs have new coaches, and Mac loves the Northern Iowa hire. Kyle Green knows UNI as well as anybody because he worked under Jacobson there and his son played there. Then he spent a decade at Iowa State, including Otzelberger’s first five years in Ames. So the defensive pedigree and the continuity should carry over. Belmont went a different direction with one of its own. The new coach played at Belmont, worked with Scheyer at Duke and also spent time in the NBA. That brings a new way of thinking, and Troy likes that the new coach is keeping people around. Keeping a roster together avoids the shock of a dozen-plus new guys competing for everything.
The bigger story is a pile of second-year coaches. Eric Henderson won at South Dakota State and has been on the show. So Mac thinks Drake bounces back. Henderson took over a bare cupboard after the dominant McCollum and DeVries runs. Ryan Miller, a former Creighton assistant, also did good work in year one at Murray. Troy calls Henderson and Miller the real second-year bump candidates, though one has more resources. Then there’s Rob Ehsan, whose UIC team broke through in year two. Meanwhile, Nagy enters year three at Southern Illinois and Matthew Graves faces a big third year at Indiana State. Brian Wardle is the lone veteran now, with more than 10 years at Bradley. His teams win with toughness on the glass and by dragging you into the mud, especially at home in Peoria.
Stock Up On Drake And UIC, Stock Down On Belmont
Mac’s stock up is Drake, and the case is simple. Drake went 6-14 in the league last year but brings back a ton, with returning guards and returning size. They also played better down the stretch and made a run in the tournament. He trusts Henderson’s culture, so he has Drake in the top half without picking them to win the league. Troy likes Drake too, but he goes with UIC for a different take. Henderson, Johnson, Washington Jr., Lowry and Nathaniel are all back, and Scroggins arrives as a transfer. The Flames’ stock went up last year, and Troy thinks it’s still heading to the moon. Mac had UIC as his second choice and admits they could win the league.
Stock down is Belmont, and both guys land there. The program won the regular season and was dominant, but the new coach has never been a head coach. Mac admits Belmont’s floor is always high, so nobody expects a free fall. Troy’s issue is the roster, because the transfers come from big-name schools where they weren’t real contributors. He prefers guys who actually played minutes. Northern Iowa got a look too. The Panthers won the conference tournament and have a new coach. But Troy only sees the Yeoman transfer from North Dakota standing out. In the end they settle on Belmont, which Troy admits is kind of sacrilegious to say in the Valley.
UIC On Top, Then A Fight For Second
Both guys pick UIC to win the regular season. Troy is riding the returners, and Mac likes the chip on their shoulder after losing the title game. Rob Ehsan’s Flames finished sixth in his first year and third last year, so the trend is obvious. Then they split on second. Troy goes Murray State because Roman Doman shows flashes of an elite NBA player. But he has also shown the floor of a seventh man who barely plays. Mac goes Illinois State instead. The Redbirds are coming off a 23-win season and an NIT Final Four, and they bring back an experienced group. They finally made shots last year, and they’ve gotten better every year in this coaching era.
Troy slots the Redbirds third, pointing to Kenzinger and Walker coming back plus Dan Garang. If Malik Moore gets ruled eligible, he thinks Illinois State could pass Murray. Mac has Murray third because Miller’s teams are talented and fast, with a mix of Euros and power five transfers. Next, Troy goes Valpo fourth, the spiciest call on either board. He says getting Pettigrew, Chaney and McNair back is bigger than anyone is giving them credit for. Mac has Drake fourth because Larson, Shetler and Aaliyah are back, and that’s their top three. Then they flip it, so Troy has Drake fifth and Mac has Valpo fifth. Valpo went 11-9 in the league last year, and Mac thinks Powell gets them another winning record.
The middle is the proud program tier. Troy goes Belmont sixth, UNI seventh and Bradley eighth, because Bradley is counting on juco guys Williams and Thornbrugh. Mac flips that and puts Bradley sixth. He expects Wardle’s young group to take lumps in the non-con, then be a tough out at Arch Madness. Then he has Belmont seventh and UNI eighth, since Belmont brings back more. At the bottom, Troy has Indiana State ninth and Southern Illinois 10th, both ahead of Evansville. Mac is higher on Evansville because he likes Ragland. So he drops Indiana State to the basement, since it’s a brand new team and Graves has to prove it. Mac also thinks these teams beat up on each other, and the winner might only go 13-7.
Coach Of The Year, Doman And The Arch Madness Split
The awards come down to who wins the league. Both guys take Rob Ehsan for Coach of the Year because they have UIC finishing first. Mac adds that the Illinois State coach takes it if the Redbirds get there instead. Troy also floats Henderson if Drake finishes fifth or ties for fourth. Player of the Year is Roman Doman, and it isn’t close for either of them. He averaged 15 points a game, per Mac, and the chat reported Murray State paid him a million bucks. Troy points out that UIC is too balanced for one guy to light up the box score. So Doman’s highlights should also earn him the writer votes.
Arch Madness is where the guys go hunting. It never goes chalk in this league, and Troy reminds everyone it’s never the one seed. So he grabs Drake, because the seeds don’t hold in the Valley but Drake does. Mac likes Bradley, a team that has come up short in a bunch of semifinals and title games. He wants Bradley to get better all season and sneak up on everybody. In the end they split the unit on Drake and Bradley. Both are long enough shots that the two tickets together should pay a solid number. That’s the bet, and it beats trusting the top seed in a tournament that keeps burning one seeds.
2026-27 College Basketball Conference Previews
| MEAC | AMERICA EAST | NEC |
| MAAC | BIG EAST | SOCON |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE | OVC | ASUN |
| UAC | BIG SOUTH | SWAC |
| SOUTHLAND | SUMMIT LEAGUE | SUN BELT |
| BIG SKY | HORIZON LEAGUE | IVY LEAGUE |
| CUSA | BIG WEST | CAA |
| PAC 12 | BIG TEN | ACC |
| MAC | BIG 12 | SEC |
| MVC | WCC |
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
01:11 Rally in the Valley
03:00 Last Year’s Season in the Valley
06:23 Coaches: Kyle Green at UNI and Brad’s at Belmont
12:19 Stock Up, Stock Down: Drake, UIC and Belmont
15:56 Regular Season Order: UIC, Murray State, Illinois State
26:13 Coach of the Year, Player of the Year & Arch Madness
29:59 Sign-Off & Socials
