Sun Belt Preview: 2026-27 College Basketball Predictions & Best Bets Recap
Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac) and Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) bring in Cannabis Capper (@CannabisCapper) for the 2026-27 Sun Belt college basketball preview, going one through 14 in a league where almost nobody returns a starter. It comes down to James Madison against Arkansas State for the top spot.
The Sun Belt College Basketball Preview Starts In Troy
Troy comes in as the defending champ after sweeping the Sun Belt regular season and tournament titles. But Scott Cross left for Georgia Tech. Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac) rates him one of the more underrated coaches in America, so that exit matters. Then the standings tell the real story. Texas State, Marshall, South Alabama, Ark State, Coastal Carolina and App State all finished 11-7, one game back. So a single game separated seventh place from the league title. That is why he calls this the dumbest conference tournament in America. The byes run nearly all the way into the semis. The schedule doesn’t help either, because 18 league games against 13 opponents leaves only five doubles.
The membership keeps shifting, too. Louisiana Tech joins this year and Texas State heads out, with James Madison bound for the American by ’28. Cannabis Capper (@CannabisCapper) also put the roster churn in one number: by his count, only four of 70 starters from last year return across the whole league. So this is a portal conference, plain and simple. Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) called the breakup a win-win, because the departing schools get bigger opportunities. And nobody on the panel minds the chaos. Cap loves the Sun Belt because it is fun to handicap and fun to bet, even if the conference tournament is a mess.
Three New Coaches And A Steppingstone League
Three new head coaches take over this year. Georgia State hired Cremins, nephew of longtime Georgia Tech and Charleston coach Bobby Cremins. He spent the last couple years on Mark Byington’s staff at Vandy. Ryan Cross returns to Monroe, where he was around for some of the program’s better years. Then Troy hands the keys to Adam Howard, who worked under Will Wade at NC State. Behind them sits a deep group of second- and third-year coaches. Quanice White at Louisiana and Ryan Pannone at Arkansas State are in year two. Justin Gray at Coastal, Preston Spradlin at JMU, Cornelius Jackson at Marshall and Mike Jones at ODU hit year three. Meanwhile Richie Riley is already in year nine at South Alabama.
Troy Chewning called South Alabama’s transfer portal haul kind of crazy, but he wants to see what Riley does with it. He liked JMU’s class more, because Spradlin spread the scoring across a couple of 11 and 12 point per game guys. Cannabis Capper singled out Pannone as a heck of a recruiter whose Arkansas State team finally has an identity. He also called Coastal Carolina a sleeping giant. Troy went further and said Coastal should be the beach James Madison. And the bigger point came back to Cap: this is still a stopover league, where coaches either move up to a bigger job or get fired.
Stock Up, Stock Down: Red Wolves Rising, Trojans Sliding
Cannabis Capper went stock up on Arkansas State and argued it hard. No starters return, but nobody’s do in this league either, and Pannone kept most of his bench. Then he landed Ferguson, who averaged 20 at Augustana. Pannone apparently flew through a South Dakota snowstorm to get him, and Ferguson projects as their best scorer. Royal Blue Smith in the backcourt doesn’t hurt. Troy Chewning took Southern Miss as his sleeper, because Tavares entered the portal and then came back. Meanwhile Ryan McIntyre went with Louisiana. Quanice White is a Kelvin Sampson guy, and the Ragin’ Cajuns bring back the most returning production in the league. They went 7-11 in league play and started picking off teams late in year one.
The stock down calls got spicier. Troy Chewning went Coastal, mostly because he couldn’t place anyone on Justin Gray’s transfer list. Picking his namesake Trojans was never an option. Cannabis Capper faded App State, which tied for second at 11-7 but returns very little. He called the roster a cast of characters built on D2 and NAIA transfers. So he needs to see it on the floor before buying in. Then Ryan McIntyre surprised the room by taking Troy. The roster looks the part, but he sees Adam Howard as a downgrade from Scott Cross. He could see the Trojans falling into a big middle that might sit two games off first place.
Dukes Or Red Wolves At The Top
The regular season title comes down to James Madison or Arkansas State. Ryan McIntyre is on the Dukes, leaning on Spradlin’s history of regular season titles and calling last year a down year. Troy Chewning broke the tie with JMU too. He loves that Lattimore kid from NC Central, who can really score. Cannabis Capper stayed on Arkansas State to win the league and kept fading JMU. So the other two both have Ark State second. Below that the boards split fast. Troy slots his Trojans third and Southern Miss fourth. Mac puts his Ragin’ Cajuns third, with Troy sliding to fifth. Cap goes South Alabama at two, banking on Peyton Law’s return as a fifth-year senior with a shot at Conference Player of the Year.
Marshall lands where it always does, in the middle of the pack, sixth on two boards and fifth on the third. Georgia State is the big riser on Troy Chewning’s board, jumping to seventh. His logic is simple: the older roster should steal a couple of early league games while new teams try to gel. App State and Coastal sit in the seven-to-ten range on every board. South Alabama is the true split, second on one board and ninth on another, because Riley’s transfers are a mystery. And all three have Monroe dead last at 14. Down at the bottom, Troy pointed out, one win or loss either way flips half these spots.
Projected Records And Award Picks
KenPom projects the conference winner at 12-6, and Bart Torvik has it at 13-5. Ryan McIntyre is taking 12-6 again. Troy Chewning doesn’t think anybody gets to 13 wins in a league this tight. Then there’s Monroe, which went 1-17 in league play last year. Troy says four wins this time and Cannabis Capper says three, which would still be a big jump. Troy has won the tournament back-to-back, but nobody picked a repeat. Troy and Mac both take Arkansas State and Pannone to cut down the nets. Cap went Southern Miss instead, because this league never goes chalk in the tournament and he won’t pick his regular season winner twice.
Player of the Year came down to a few names. Ryan McIntyre took Jordan Pike at Arkansas State. Cannabis Capper went with Peyton Law at South Alabama, since he has the Jaguars second and Law has to deliver for that to cash. Troy Chewning floated Tavares at Southern Miss and agreed Law belongs in the race. Coach of the Year also got three different answers. Troy went Spradlin, figuring a regular season title after a nine-win league season makes the case. Mac went with Quanice White, because a climb from the basement to third would be hard to ignore. And Cap took Jay Ladner at Southern Miss, which Mac called a good one for a veteran coach.
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
01:03 Sun Belt Fun Belt Preview
04:36 Results and Tournament Byes
08:39 New Coaches
15:14 Stock Up, Stock Down
22:45 Rank Them One to 14
31:12 Kenpom, Torvik & Basement Wins
33:02 Tournament Winner, Player & Coach of the Year
35:23 Sign-Off & Socials
