Big 12 Preview: Best Bets 2026-27 Recap
Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac), Noah Bieniek (@NoahB77_) and Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) break down the Big 12 basketball preview for 2026-27 and go through all 16 teams. All three have Houston winning the league, and Ryan McIntyre has his Mountaineers cracking the top five.
Last Year Set A High Bar In The Big 12
Arizona owned the Big 12 last season. The Wildcats swept the regular season and tournament titles, beating Houston in the Kansas City final. That made four different tournament champions in four years. Then Tommy Lloyd’s group reached the Final Four before Michigan ran them out of Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the league’s depth showed all through the NCAA tournament. Eight Big 12 teams went dancing, and the conference went 6-2 in the first round. Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all reached the Sweet 16. Home teams also won 64% of their games, the fifth best mark in the country. Noah Bieniek credits that to the home crowds in this league. So when the guys call this league 12 or 13 deep for 2026-27, the track record backs them up.
Ryan McIntyre still has scar tissue from last season. The Mountaineers went .500 in league play, landing in a four-way tie with Cincinnati and BYU. But a home loss to a two-win Utah team kept them out of the tournament. West Virginia answered by winning the Crown in Vegas. BYU was the bigger letdown, because the AJ Dybantsa hype never turned into enough wins. Baylor missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018. Meanwhile, Kansas State fired Jerome Tang midseason and Kansas lost to St. John’s at the buzzer. Utah also struggled through year one under Alex Jensen.
Three New Coaches And A Freshman Everyone Wants
The biggest storyline is a freshman. Troy Chewning said nobody has carried this much first overall hype into a season since Cade Cunningham. That freshman is Tyran Stokes, the 6-foot-8 Kansas newcomer ranked number one in his class. So the chatter about a freshman winning player of the year in a league this good defensively surprises Troy. The league also just sent the top two picks to the draft. Then there are the three new coaches. Randy Bennett left St. Mary’s for Arizona State, and the guys loved it. Troy, an Oklahoma State fan, called it a home run hire and admitted to a little jealousy.
Casey Alexander takes over at Kansas State after winning at Lipscomb and Belmont. That job looks like a slower rebuild, because the big Tang buyout cut into roster money. Then comes the hire Mac likes most. Jerrod Calhoun returns home to Ohio at Cincinnati after building winners at Youngstown State and Utah State. Mac argued Youngstown was the harder job, and that everybody in Cincinnati is now pulling in the right direction. On the veteran side, Bill Self enters his 29th season at Kansas. Kelvin Sampson is in year 13 at Houston, after the guys caught a typo listing 18. So there is more continuity across this league than Mac expected.
Stock Up On Baylor, Stock Down On Kansas
Noah’s stock up team is Baylor, and the case holds up. Six Big 12 wins last year were the fewest for Scott Drew since 2009. Jerome Tang’s return as associate head coach matters, because the defense slipped badly without Tang. Baylor averaged a 71st KenPom defensive finish in those five years, compared to 28th in Tang’s last five. Then add the Mingo brothers. Kaden averaged 13.5 points as a freshman at Penn State, and Dylan is a five-star, top 10 recruit. So Noah has the Bears finishing fifth. Troy, meanwhile, went with BYU and called it addition by subtraction. Without AJ Dybantsa’s isolation sets, the ball should move more for Rob Wright, Collin Chandler and Bruce Branch.
Mac stayed home with West Virginia. Ross Hodge squeezed nine league wins out of an offensively challenged group in year one, and Hodge teams always guard. Now the freshman point guard has veterans around the ball, so Mac sees a top five team. Mac also gave Cincinnati a homer nod. Then for stock down, Noah took the big swing on Kansas. The Jayhawks lost both televised home scrimmages, and Trey White, Melvin Council and Trey Kaufman-Renn all face eligibility questions. Troy faded UCF because the roster looks thin beyond Dior Johnson. Mac picked Colorado, one of the league’s youngest teams, to slide back into the basement.
Houston Is The Pick In Our Big 12 Basketball Preview
All three hosts picked Houston to win the regular season. Troy called it a classic Kelvin Sampson roster that loses top-end talent but plays deep and defends. Mac pointed to the schedule, because Houston avoids road trips to Lawrence, Ames and Provo. Last year was supposed to be the regression year, and the Cougars still went 30-7. Noah also brought the numbers. Houston has four straight top five defenses nationally and eight straight top 25 offenses on KenPom. The Cougars do lose four starters from a Sweet 16 team. But Noah likes the LSU transfer point guard who averaged 15.5 points and 6.5 assists in the SEC. So the guys are trusting Sampson to figure it out again.
Arizona and Iowa State round out a top three that all three hosts agreed on. Troy and Noah have Arizona second, with Caleb Holt arriving and Mo Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov back up front. Tommy Lloyd is 76-21 in five seasons of Big 12 play, so the floor is high. Mac flipped the order and put Iowa State second. Houston and Iowa State have the two best defensive cultures in the league, so Mac expects a fist fight every night. A lot rides on Tamin Lipsey getting five-and-five eligibility, because Lipsey changes everything at the point. T.J. Otzelberger’s defenses have also finished top three in the Big 12 four straight years.
Kansas, Texas Tech And The Five-And-Five Fight
Fourth place split the room. Troy and Mac both landed on Kansas, and Mac flatly refused to put Bill Self outside the top four. Noah pushed back hard. The Jayhawks finished fifth in 2024 and tied for sixth in 2025, so Noah sees a downward trajectory and has them eighth. Then there is Trey Kaufman-Renn, who played in the NBA Summer League. Noah doubts Kaufman-Renn ever plays, while Mac bets Kansas finds a way. Noah took Texas Tech fourth instead, because Grant McCasland has never finished lower than fourth in the Big 12. McCasland also said JT Toppin will come back around February. That still leaves 10 to 12 conference games with one of the best players in college basketball.
From there, the ballots scatter. Troy has Texas Tech fifth and BYU sixth. Mac has West Virginia fifth and Texas Tech sixth, and Noah has Baylor fifth and TCU sixth. Jamie Dixon has four straight top 45 defenses, and TCU returns three starters. Baylor went seventh for Troy and Mac. But Noah took Cincinnati there, because Calhoun went 30-10 across two Mountain West seasons. Noah also loves a backcourt of Tylon Riley, Miles Colvin and Tyler Tejada. West Virginia sits ninth for both Troy and Noah. Then Arizona State lands 10th on two ballots, because Bennett finished 26th or better on KenPom in five straight seasons at St. Mary’s.
The Basement, A Win Total Angle And A Bubble Full Of Bids
Oklahoma State was a unanimous 12th. The Cowboys’ defense finished 15th in the league last year, and Noah does not see many stout defenders on this roster. Troy also found a betting angle. Anytime you can bet shot attempts on this team as an underdog, take it. Utah was a unanimous 16th, and Noah feels for Alex Jensen bringing a knife to a gunfight on resources. The spots in between split three ways. Troy has UCF 13th, Kansas State 14th and Colorado 15th. Mac went UCF, Colorado, then Kansas State. Noah went Colorado, Kansas State, then UCF. Colorado ranks fifth in returning production, and Noah is a big fan of Barrington Hargress.
The guys also liked a win total angle from Randy in the chat. Randy floated the overs on UCF and West Virginia, tied to how eligibility rulings shake out across the league. Troy called it a pretty good angle for West Virginia. Noah’s bigger point is about the bubble. Three or four teams could win five or fewer league games and feed wins to everyone else. So Noah expects 10 to 11 teams above .500 and 12 or 13 NCAA tournament bids. Then watch the 10-8 Big 12 teams, because Noah sees them landing as nine seeds.
Kansas City, Player Of The Year And Coach Of The Year
Noah and Mac both picked Iowa State to win the Big 12 tournament, because the Cyclones should have their question marks sorted by then. Mac also calls the event Hilton South. Ames fans make the three-hour drive and take over Power & Light that week. But Troy went with Kansas, betting on one last run for Bill Self. Player of the year split the room too. Mac went with Stokes, and Troy agreed before floating Arizona guard Caleb Holt as a live option. Noah took Ivan Kharchenkov, expecting Arizona to run its offense through the front court again. Krivas got a vote from an Arizona fan in the chat as well.
Coach of the year produced three different answers. Noah took Calhoun, reasoning that voters will reward a new coach who finishes in the top half. Troy went with Sampson, because a Houston team without a star would make the timing perfect. Mac stuck with the Mountaineers. If West Virginia cracks the top five, Mac says Ross Hodge wins it, and Troy agreed that would be hard to debate. Mac also pointed out that the Big 12 coaches respect each other like a fraternity. Noah sees more national title contenders here than in the Big Ten. So Mac is calling for the Big 12 to end the drought this year, whichever team does it.
2026-27 College Basketball Conference Previews
| MEAC | AMERICA EAST | NEC |
| MAAC | BIG EAST | SOCON |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE | OVC | ASUN |
| UAC | BIG SOUTH | SWAC |
| SOUTHLAND | SUMMIT LEAGUE | SUN BELT |
| BIG SKY | HORIZON LEAGUE | IVY LEAGUE |
| CUSA | BIG WEST | CAA |
| PAC 12 | BIG TEN | ACC |
| MAC | BIG 12 | SEC |
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
00:58 Welcome to the College Basketball Experience: Big 12
03:33 Last Year in the Big 12
07:54 Storylines: Freshman Hype & Casey Alexander
10:17 Three New Coaches & the Veteran Coaches
17:38 Stock Up, Stock Down
30:11 Who Wins the Regular Season: Houston
35:42 Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech
44:14 Preseason Rankings and Baylor
45:57 BYU, TCU and Texas Tech at Six
48:39 Baylor and Cincinnati at Seven
52:26 Kansas at Eight and TKR
55:28 West Virginia and TCU at Nine
57:19 Arizona State and BYU at 10
1:02:46 Bottom of the Big 12: Oklahoma State, UCF, Colorado & Utah
1:13:34 Who Wins in Kansas City, Player & Coach of the Year
1:20:07 Big 12 Deserves Its Respect
1:21:02 Sign-Off & Socials
