NFL Week 7 Contest & World Series Bombs! Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) is back with his NFL Week 7 contest picks for the Circa Millions, and this week he’s taking the points and trusting the refs to keep games close. He also bets Bears-Patriots on Thursday night and backs the Brewers to win the World Series.
The Refs Want Close Games, So Take The Points
Monday night stung. The show cashed a George Kittle anytime touchdown, but the 49ers minus seven and a half never covered. San Francisco led 23 to 3 before Washington back-doored the number. And that was a Circa Millions entry, so it hurt twice. CJ Sullivan doesn’t think the referees are fixing games for one side. The theory is they balance the calls late so everything ends close. That is also why Collinsworth’s “somehow, some way” line got mocked on air. So the plan changes this week. No more betting matchups and angles. Embrace the corruption, then take the points.
The other story out of that game was Dan Quinn, who opened his presser insisting he knew it was fourth down. That came after Daniels threw the ball away on fourth down. Lip readers online then claimed Quinn mouthed “Oh, it’s fourth down” on the sideline. But CJ Sullivan has a bigger problem with lip reading itself. Even top experts say they are right maybe 20 to 30 percent of the time. So the internet treating every sideline clip like a transcript is mostly guessing. Somebody in the chat also said trust the deaf. That is the point, because the deaf say it isn’t a real thing. Quinn, meanwhile, doesn’t look long for that job.
The Prop Douglas Ladder And Bears Minus Three
Thursday Night Football is a real game for once, with New England at Chicago. The line is 3 and the total is 50 and a half. Drake Maye against Caleb Williams is also the same draft class, the number three pick against the number one pick. The over tempted CJ Sullivan, but 50 and a half is too much for a Thursday. These players are three days removed from a four-hour car crash, so weird things happen. That is why the lean goes to the home team on a quick turnaround. There is also a lot more trust in Ben Johnson than Mike Vrabel, scheme-wise. So the side is Bears minus three. Bomb it.
The ladder of the night is Demario Douglas receiving yards, and the case is simple. Douglas caught four of five targets for 65 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. Then came seven catches, 86 yards and a score on eight targets against the Jets. Maye likes Douglas, and Douglas blocks well, which matters with a coach as picky as Vrabel. So the ladder starts at 40 yards, a low bar for that kind of run. From there it climbs to 60 yards at +208, 70 at +303 and 80 at +438. Then 90 yards pays +630 and the top rung, 100 yards, pays +870. The chat also pointed out the Bears can’t cover guys out of the slot.
Maye over one and a half passing touchdowns is the other Patriots play, priced around even money to -115. Maye has thrown three touchdowns in each of the last three games, against the Bills, Raiders and Jets. The offensive line injuries are real, but now the Bears defense is on a short week. On the Chicago side, Luther Burden over 56 and a half receiving yards looks too low. Burden went eight for 95 last week as soon as Caleb came back. Then there are touchdown sprinkles on both quarterbacks. Williams is +370 anytime and 20 to 1 to score first, because running is too big a weapon to shelve. Maye is +350 anytime and 22 to 1 to score first.
Our NFL Week 7 Contest Picks Start With Big Dogs
Survivor is over after the Rams knocked the show out, and CJ Sullivan is following the same advice handed out on Monday. You don’t replay hypothetical picks in your head, because that is just an exercise in pain. Losing the stress of the pick is also something you win. So all the focus goes to the Circa Millions, where last week’s 2-3 hurt because of that Niners game. The card now sits at 12-16-2 on the year. But a 5-0 week here puts it above .500 by a game. And for the first time all season, the picks are built on refs keeping games close instead of matchups and DVOA.
The biggest line on the board is the Giants at Houston, and the pick is New York plus 10. Houston just saved its season beating Jacksonville in London. Now the Texans fly home with no rest and a bye week waiting. That is as sleepy a spot as it gets. CJ Sullivan still believes in the Texans and calls 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl not a bad play. The Giants are frauds, sure, and J.J. McCarthy was 29th out of 29 in catchable passes. But McCarthy has arm talent, plus Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely to throw to. Houston also still can’t run the ball, while this Houston defense can be run on. So the refs balance it out and the Giants cover. Bomb it.
Then comes another number that makes no sense. Indianapolis is plus six and a half at Minnesota, and the question is why this isn’t 30. The Colts just lost at home to Tennessee and are firing their general manager. Everyone in that building is on edge, and that desperation is exactly why they cover. It is also a Daniel Jones return game, since Jones won his only playoff game in that stadium as a Giant. Flores blitzing Jones is a problem, and Tyler Warren doesn’t look like he’s playing. But Kyler Murray covering six and a half for a team that beat Miami by five at home? No thanks. Colts plus six and a half.
Denver And Seattle Are The Two That Make Sense
Denver minus four and a half at Arizona is one of the favorite plays on the card. The Broncos come in off 10 days of rest. Ryan Fitzpatrick basically called Bo Nix a coward, but look at the defenses Nix has faced. Seattle, San Francisco, the Rams, Jacksonville and Kansas City are five really good units. Now Nix gets Arizona, 30th in opponent dropback EPA and 25th in dropback success rate. The Cardinals have also allowed 16 passing touchdowns, so Nix over one and a half touchdown passes works too. And yes, Arizona beat the Rams last week, but without scoring a touchdown. Denver should also own the line of scrimmage, and pressuring Brissett is how Detroit shut Arizona down.
Sunday night brings Kansas City to Seattle with the Seahawks laying two and a half. Seattle is also coming off 10 days of rest after Sam Darnold threw two interceptions to blow that Thursday game. Seattle has lost back-to-back games, while Kansas City is undefeated and a bit overrated. The Chiefs blew out the Broncos opening night, then beat the Colts in overtime at home. They won unimpressively at Miami, beat the Chargers at home and won a shootout with the Raiders in Vegas. Kansas City also has no deep threats at receiver, which is why it leans on Kenneth Walker so much. Walker gets a revenge game, but Seattle is still the number one defense. So as long as Darnold doesn’t Darnold, Seattle minus two and a half is the bomb.
Fly Eagles Fly As A Prime Time Home Dog
The ultimate no-sense pick closes the card. Circa has Dallas at Philadelphia at three and a half, and the market is already at four and a half. So the pick is the Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a half. Yes, this team looks like it has quit. Offensive linemen are retiring or getting traded, and Andy Dalton didn’t want to come back. With Jalen Hurts sidelined after the blood clot scare, it’s Tanner McKee against Dak. But the Philly defense is still playing good ball, and Dallas’ defense is not. Saquon Barkley is supposedly returning and DeVonta Smith is back.
The real reason is hate. Eagles fans have slid from angry to disinterested, and that’s never good. But nothing gets them back like the Dallas Cowboys, because that hatred runs deep and generational in Philadelphia. Think babies in anti-Dallas onesies. A home dog in prime time with that crowd behind it is worth three and a half points. So the full Circa card reads Giants plus 10, Colts plus six and a half, Broncos minus four and a half, Seahawks minus two and a half and Eagles plus three and a half. Three make no sense and two do. The running joke is that the sensible ones will probably lose.
Brewers To Win It All, Rays To Steal Game One
Isaiah World Series finally starts Friday with the Brewers and Rays. With a lockout coming, it could be the last baseball for a while. Milwaukee is -165 with home field and Tampa Bay is +145. The Brewers were the best team in baseball in a tough NL, so they are the series pick. But a nine-day layoff since sweeping the Dodgers is a real concern. That is why the best ticket is Rays in Game 1 and Brewers in the series at +450. Misiorowski also hasn’t looked like his complete self, while Rasmussen has. Milwaukee minus a game and a half at +125 is there too.
For World Series MVP, Brice Turang at +900 is the play. Turang has been heating up all through an amazing NLCS. Tampa Bay throws nothing but righties, and Turang’s splits against righties are significantly better. Turang is also 9 to 1 to lead the series in hits, which isn’t a bad look. Then come two Rays sprinkles. Rasmussen is 20 to 1, and Freddy Peralta is 40 to 1 with a narrative attached. Peralta pitched for the Brewers last year before the Mets signed and traded Peralta to Tampa Bay. So only the Mets could be the middleman for a pitcher facing an old team in the World Series.
Jordan Elliott Had A Gun
The Man in the Box closes on Cleveland at Tennessee, and the story isn’t the quarterbacks. The Titans released defensive tackle Jordan Elliott after a practice fight with offensive tackle JC Latham. Elliott then went to a car to get a gun to resolve the fight. Elliott had signed a two-year, $8 million deal before the season and was a starter. So the release makes sense. Then Robert Saleh got up and defended Elliott’s character, calling it a cry for help more than a criminal act. Everyone is applauding the speech, and CJ Sullivan isn’t feeling it.
The rebuttal writes itself. Saleh said Elliott never committed a crime, but Tennessee law says that was one. And if this was a cry for help, what about JC Latham’s cry, which was probably a lot louder? Saleh also says the locker room sees it differently, but that’s the locker room Elliott is banned from. Saleh even told the other 31 teams to call about a run-stopping D tackle. So the Bottom Line Bombs suggestion is the Browns sign Elliott and line Elliott up across from Latham on Sunday. That is a revenge game nobody is ready for.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:21 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
8:42 Patriots vs. Bears Picks
19:49 Out of Survivor & Circa Millions
24:41 Giants vs. Texans Picks
30:00 Colts vs. Vikings Picks
35:29 Denver vs. Arizona Picks
40:35 Kansas City vs. Seattle Picks
45:02 Cowboys vs. Eagles Picks
49:31 Circa Million Contest Recap
52:25 World Series Predictions
57:03 Jordan Elliott Had a Gun
1:06:32 Sign-Off
