College Football Picks Week 8 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby from The College Football Experience for their Week 8 college football picks, from Indiana at Michigan to Ole Miss at Texas. It ends with Auburn and UCF in a two-leg money line parlay.
Ball Sack Rivalries And A Florida Money Line Meet And Greet
Before a single line gets read, Colby Dant (@thecolbyd) unveils hand-drawn slide art for the first annual Sacramento State vs. Ball State ball sack rivalry. The chat gives Friday’s UConn vs. UMass game a nickname we’ll leave on the stream. Then the touting starts, because the guys earned it. Last week’s moneyline round robin cashed two of three legs, with Florida and UNC getting home before Penn State blew it late. Sean Green went 3-1 on his locks and is up to 63% on the season. Colby matched the 3-1, and Sean says everyone is over 35 units up on parlays.
Ryan Kramer had the better story. Parked in a roped-off sportsbook recliner, he got approached by fan after fan asking who he liked, and every one heard the same answer. Florida money line. One listener from roughly the 2016 days, shout out Mozzy, walked off in the wrong direction, then came back and made the bet at the window. Florida got home. Sean, meanwhile, got stopped in line by an older guy whose son wanted a Texas and Notre Dame money line parlay. He told the dad to have his son reconsider. Good call, since BYU knocked off Notre Dame and Steve Young stormed the field after going 10-0 on his GameDay picks.
ACC Officials, Hail Marys And The Case For Home Playoff Games
Kramer wants one more thing on the record before the card, and it’s ACC officiating around Miami. Colby walks back through the Virginia Tech vs. Miami Hail Mary from a couple years ago. It was ruled a touchdown on the field, then overturned without any visual proof he could see. This weekend’s Miami vs. Florida State finish brought another Hail Mary, and his bigger gripe is the review audio. Six different voices, and nobody asks whether the tie goes to the receiver. The Virginia Tech vs. Pitt call from a couple weeks ago might be even worse. So Sean’s shout to Jay Sternberger lands perfectly: Miami has never lost a booth review.
That rolls straight into playoff expansion, and nobody here has patience for the anti-expansion crowd. Colby’s favorite part is losing conference championship games, which he calls corporate and soulless. With 17 or 18 teams in a league, he says, you don’t even get the two best teams. There’s a reason Big Ten title game tickets went for $2 last year. Kramer notes that someone at ESPN called home playoff games the best thing they’ll have to sell. So the fix gets simple. Play the championship at the Rose Bowl every year and stop pretending the rest of the bowls matter.
Week 8 College Football Picks Start In Boone
The week opens Thursday with James Madison laying 10.5 at App State. JMU is -420 on the money line, App is +320 and the total sits at 55.5. JMU won last November’s meeting 58-10, so this is a revenge game in a series full of ruined seasons. Colby will be there for a TCE meetup, and he can’t believe a 7-0 team is laying that many points on the road. The defenses rank 65th and 66th in total yards, and App has Henry Hasselbeck, son of Matt, behind a questionable Malachi Singleton. Sean thinks App will try to backdoor it even if they fall behind big. Kramer also takes the weekday dog, so it’s App State across the board.
Friday brings the first split. Duke is +102 at Virginia with a 47.5 total, and Kramer says the line opened 1.5 and Circa is at 2. Colby lays it with the Wahoos, because Duke beat Virginia in overtime in last year’s ACC title game and kept them out of the playoff. He also calls Duke’s wins over Illinois and Stanford phony. Sean joins him, since Duke has lost six straight in Charlottesville and keeps blowing leads. Kramer says there’s a 0% chance he takes UVA. When in doubt, take the dog.
Army at Tulsa has Tulsa -1.5 at -120, Army +100 and a 54.5 total. Sean likes Army as a small dog. Tulsa is 121st in rush yards allowed at 191.6 per game and converts just 31.3% of third downs, which hands Army the clock. Colby lays the 1.5 with Tulsa. Head coach Tre Lamb ran the triple option at Gardner-Webb, and this is Tulsa’s third option team in three weeks after Navy and Rice. Kramer buys the opposite angle, because three straight weeks of cut blocks leaves a defense banged up. He also loves this country, so he’s taking the United States Army.
Air Force at Wyoming lets Sean say I told you so. He was on the high-elevation home dogs last week, and both Air Force and BYU got home. This week the home dog is Wyoming, +5.5 at +168 with a 44.5 total. Air Force has lost five straight in Laramie, and Colby thinks Calhoun has only won there twice as a head coach. These are usually field goal games, so the table agrees 5.5 is too big. Sean calls it a 24-21 type game. Kramer would happily take an Air Force win without the cover, since the guys hold a future on Air Force to win the conference.
Indiana, Auburn And The Saturday Morning Card
Saturday starts with Indiana at Michigan, Indiana -7.5 at -265 against Michigan +215 with a 41.5 total. Bryce Underwood lost the job, and Tommy Carr gets the start after sparking Michigan off the bench against Penn State. Sean admits Michigan is a little intriguing as a home dog. Colby calls Indiana a lock. He thought the Hoosiers were the better team against Ohio State despite the loss, and he doesn’t trust a young quarterback against that defensive front. Cignetti also comes off a loss with time to prepare for Carr. So Sean lays it, and Kramer, who thinks Michigan is in a bad matchup most weeks, lays it too.
Texas Tech at Cincinnati carries some bad blood between the fan bases over the quarterback betting saga. Tech lays 10.5 at -410, Cincinnati is +315 and the total is 56.5. Colby and Sean take the Bearcats. Colby thinks 10.5 is too much, and Sean points out that Cincinnati can run the ball and quarterback JC French hasn’t thrown an interception through 1,338 yards. Kramer goes the other way. He thought he’d be on Cincinnati, then decided to handicap the handicapper and took Texas Tech.
LSU at Auburn is unanimous. LSU lays 7.5 at -310 with a 50.5 total, and Auburn sits at +245 off its win over Georgia. Sean worries about the letdown spot, but he trusts LSU even less on the road. Sam Leavitt has eight interceptions, and a hostile SEC environment is no place to lay a big number with him. Colby says LSU hasn’t beaten anybody with a punch and already has two losses, so all the pressure sits on the visitors. Kramer takes Auburn too, and the Tigers end up anchoring the parlay later.
Mississippi State is +4.5 at home against Oklahoma, +168 with a 44.5 total. Kamario Taylor is questionable with a toe injury, but Colby reads the short line as a sign he plays. He’s on Hail State either way, because Oklahoma scored 14 points at home against New Mexico. Sean doesn’t want Oklahoma as an SEC road favorite, and Kramer concurs. Iowa at Minnesota is the next split, with Iowa -6.5 at -260 and a 40.5 total. Sean and Kramer lay it. Sean cites Iowa at 5-0 ATS on its last trips to Minneapolis and 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight road games. Colby takes the Gophers and predicts Iowa wins 20-14 without covering.
UCF, South Carolina And Fading The Hangover
BYU at UCF is the trap spot of the week. BYU just beat Notre Dame outright and now flies to Orlando, where UCF is +210 on the money line with a 43 total. Sean was on BYU last week and still takes UCF +6.5, calling it the situation spot of all situation spots. Colby adds that UCF had a bye and two weeks to prepare. Kramer is on UCF too. A BYU loss might also cool off Holy War ticket prices before the guys make that trip in three weeks. What follows is a soaking tangent that is best heard, not summarized.
Tennessee at South Carolina runs on the same logic. South Carolina lays 2.5 at -126, Tennessee is +105 and the total is 50.5. McIntyre gets the start for the Vols, who are coming off the Alabama game and a wild home crowd. All three guys fade the hangover and take the Gamecocks, and Colby notes Beamer is very good at beating Tennessee. Then comes Texas A&M at Alabama, with Bama -14.5 at -670, A&M +470 and a 50.5 total. A&M has looked awful, but they shut out The Citadel last week and the pass defense ranks 10th in the country. Alabama isn’t a juggernaut on the ground either, so the guys take A&M and the points.
The Underdog Fantasy entry starts with the Thursday game. Colby fades App State’s rush defense, which Coastal Carolina just lit up, and takes the higher on 97.5 rushing yards for JMU’s George Pettway. Then he fades his own ECU Pirates, taking the higher on 227.5 passing yards for Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes at the Liberty Bowl. Stokes was a walking turnover last week. But Colby says ECU gives up too many big plays with a roster full of new faces. A $100 entry returns $350.
Texas, USC And The Late Saturday Splits
Virginia Tech at Clemson has Clemson laying 2.5, the Hokies at +125 and a 49.5 total. Colby can’t believe Virginia Tech hasn’t played at Clemson in over 14 years while sharing a conference. He still lays it with Clemson off two weeks of prep, and Sean likes Death Valley at night enough to lay it too. Kramer says they’re both on the wrong side. The bigger fight is Ole Miss at Texas, with Texas -3.5 at -156, Ole Miss +130 and a 53.5 total. Colby goes Horns up. He calls it a true foxhole spot, because Sark could get fired if Ole Miss walks in and dominates.
Sean takes Ole Miss +3.5 and won’t lay points with Arch Manning, who he says just isn’t right. Ole Miss has scored on 100% of its red zone trips, and Texas is without Colin Simmons, its leading pass rusher with 10.5 sacks. USC at Wisconsin splits the table too, with the Badgers +126 at home and a 49.5 total. Colby and Kramer take USC because Wisconsin can’t throw. Colton Joseph threw for 66 yards last week, and the Badgers went 3 of 11 on third and fourth down with 214 total yards. Sean still takes Wisconsin as a home dog at night, though his time zone argument takes some heat.
UTSA at Tulane is unanimous, with UTSA -2.5 at -146, Tulane +122 and a 51.5 total. Colby says anyone who watched Tulane beat Memphis knows they aren’t good, and Sean expects UTSA to roll. Kramer fades Tulane again and hopes it works out better this time. North Dakota State gets 4.5 at New Mexico with a 41.5 total, and the guys take the Bison. Colby thinks NDSU should be undefeated, and Sean sees a 21-17 game even with the climb to Albuquerque’s 5,312 feet. Houston +6.5 at Utah, with a 56.5 total, is the last unanimous dog. Houston moves the ball at 485 yards per game, and Colby says the Cougars have the sixth-best rush defense in the country.
Locks, Dogs, Teasers And The Contest Card
Colby’s locks lean on favorites: Texas -3.5, USC, Indiana and UTSA. His dog is UCF +210. His teaser moves Minnesota to +12.5 and Wyoming to +11.5 and drops Indiana to -1.5. Sean opens with Wyoming +5.5, Iowa -6.5 and UCF +6.5, then goes head-to-head with Colby by taking Ole Miss +3.5. His money line dog is Auburn +245. His teaser pairs North Dakota State +10.5 and Wisconsin +8.5 with Indiana -1.5, and Kramer immediately points out that’s an NFL teaser, not how you tease in college.
Kramer locks Indiana -7.5, Iowa -6.5, Auburn +7.5 and South Carolina, then joins Colby on UCF +210 as his dog. His teaser runs Ole Miss to +9.5, Virginia Tech to +8.5 and Army to +7.5. He calls it a triple option tease, since the Army leg is basically getting nine points. The parlay stays simple with two home dogs, Auburn and UCF on the money line. Colby briefly pitched UCF and Houston before agreeing, and the two-leg ticket gets named the Malzahn parlay.
For the contest, the consensus plays are Indiana -7.5, UTSA -2.5, UCF +6.5 and Auburn +7.5. Colby gets the first individual pick since he was right last week, and he grabs USC -2.5 because Wisconsin can’t move the ball. Kramer takes Iowa -6.5, then realizes he should have left it for Sean. So Sean breaks his own no-weekday rule, calls the whole thing a ruse aimed at Mac In The Box and slams Wyoming +5.5 in Laramie while Colby pulls on a giant cowboy hat. Go Pokes.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Ball Sack Rivalry & The Cum Bowl
7:45 Locks, Parlays & Florida Money Line
14:51 ACC Officials, Hail Mary & Playoff Expansion
29:25 Monday Night Football Watch-Along & Strong Arms
32:50 James Madison vs. App State Picks
37:49 Duke vs. UVA Picks
42:09 Army vs. Tulsa Picks
48:00 Air Force vs. Wyoming Picks
55:27 Indiana vs. Michigan Picks
1:05:47 Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati Picks
1:11:43 LSU vs. Auburn Picks
1:15:49 Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Picks
1:20:16 Iowa vs. Minnesota Picks
1:23:14 BYU vs. UCF Picks
1:28:53 Tennessee vs. South Carolina Picks
1:33:57 Texas A&M vs. Alabama Picks
1:39:08 Underdog Entry: Pettway and Stokes
1:41:35 Virginia Tech vs. Clemson Picks
1:48:52 Ole Miss vs. Texas Picks
1:52:24 USC vs. Wisconsin Picks
1:57:00 UTSA vs. Tulane Picks
2:00:19 North Dakota State vs. New Mexico Picks
2:04:24 Houston vs. Utah Picks
2:09:10 Locks, Dog, and Tease
2:16:53 Contest Plays
2:20:37 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
