We had a little bounce-back last week and a winning weekend. The FCS action is a little quieter this week, with multiple teams having the week off. However, there’s still plenty of enticing matchups for us to take a look at. As we continue in to the FCS season, and all IVY teams are up and going now, these teams will continue to grind it out. Let’s take a look at the FCS Week 6 picks and best bets!
FCS Week 6 Picks And Best Bets
Harvard (-7.5) at Cornell
Harvard is the better team in this one. They have looked really good and I’ve been impressed. They’re 3-0, one of just five remaining unbeaten teams in the FCS, and they are allowing just 11.3 points per game. They’ve also won six straight meetings with Cornell. If this game were in Cambridge, this would be a give me. However, it’s not.
Cornell is 2-1 and already knocked off Yale 38-25, in the Ivy opener. They then went on to win at Georgetown 35-14. The Big Red are scoring 26.7 points per game, compared to Harvard’s 21.7. Harvard’s offense is efficient, but not explosive. Charlie Smith has 645 passing yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. No matter how many times I looked at this game, and how many different simulation models I used, it was a fieldg goal game.
I still think Harvard will win this, though there is risk for an upset. Ivy games can always go either way. Cornell ais at home, on a two-game win streak, and Harvard hasn’t been asked to score in the 30s to cover yet. Maybe their defense will make it so they don’t have to. However, this Cornell team has shown some spark.
FCS Week 6 Best Bet: Cornell +7.5
Incarnate Word at Lamar (-6.5)
Lamar is 4-1, 2-0 in the Southland, and allowing 20.2 points a game. Incarnate Word is 2-3, allowing 33.2, and just lost 28-26 to Stephen F. Austin after getting drilled 63-10 by Texas State. I don’t understand why Lamar is only laying 6.5 points in this one.
The quarterback split is the cleanest part of this. Incarnate Word’s Emmett Brown has 1,426 passing yards, but a touchdown-to-interception line of seven and seven. Lamar’s Aiden McCown has nine touchdowns and four interceptions. They just put up 49 points on Nicholls and 42 on Northwestern State.
Don’t get me wrong, Incarnate Word can throw the ball. They’re averaging 311 passing yards a game. However, I think that’s why this line looks low when it should be higher. Lamar’s defense is also performing well, especially against the run.
Most simulation models show Lamar winning by 12-to-13 points. A six-point gap between the model and the market, at home, doens’t make a ton of sense. With the way Incarnate Word has turned the ball over, Lamar just needs to play clean ball to win this one.
FCS Week 6 Best Bet: Lamar -6.5
Southern Illinois at South Dakota (-9.5)
Next on my FCS Week 6 picks is the Southern Illinois at South Dakota game. South Dakota is scoring 39 points a game, sixth in the FCS, and Austyn Modrzewski has 18 touchdown passes. The Coyotes are also first nationally in passing touchdowns and receiving touchdowns. Southern Illinois is currently scoring 26.5 points a game, and just lost 28-16 at home to Youngstown State. The Salukis’ defense is decent enough, allowing 25.7 points per game. However, the offense is not built to trade scores with this version of South Dakota inside the DakotaDome.
The yardage gap is just too hard to ignore. South Dakota is averaging 425 yards a game, while Southern Illinois is allowing 344. DJ Williams has thrown four touchdown passes and three interceptions, which doesn’t come close to Modrzewski’s numbers. The Coyotes can run the ball as well. Charles Pierre jr. has 447 rushing yards and six touchdowns. They aren’t a one-dimensional team.
South Dakota is 3-0 when it scores more than what SIU is currently allowing per game. The Salukis are 3-3 for a reason. Don’t overthink this one.
FCS Week 6 Best Bet: South Dakota -9.5
Austin Peay (-2.5) vs. Tarleton State
This is one of the most interesting games on the FCS slate to me this weekend. Tarleton is the better raw offense and sit at 5-0. They’re scoring 39.4 points a game while rushing for 224.6, and throwing for 290.8. Kaden Anderson has 1,346 yards, 12 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
However, a lot of that was against Prairie View, Merrimack, and Chicago State. The two games against betteer teams were much closer. Tarleton was favored by 19 against McNeese and won by three on the road.
Austin Peay’s defense is a lot better than those I just mentioned. The Governors allow 16.2 points per game, 112 rushing yards, and just 201.5 passing yards. Peay can also score, averaging 37 points a game. Chris Parson has 1,396 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception. He currently has a 126.5 passer rating. Marvin Sims has 450 receiving yards and Denver Harper has five touchdowns.
Austin Peay has also been really good at home, beating Morehaed State 63-7, UT Martin 35-12, and New Haven 42-17. They also have a road win against West Florida. Their only loss came against Vanderbilt. Tarleton can move the ball but I don’ tknow if they can separate themselves in this one. Peay at Fortera has been a winning recipe. A three-point home win covers this and I think they get it done.
FCS Week 6 Best Bet: Austin Peay (-2.5)
Eastern Washington (-5.5) vs. Northern Colorado
The last game on the FCS Week 6 picks is the Eastern Washington vs. Northern Colorado. Eastern Washington is just a 5.5-point favorite. However, I think that number is discounted because they’re 1-5. If you look at the games though, they lost on the road to Washington, South Dakota, Northern Arizona, and UC Davis.
Admit it or not, the quarterback position is the most important in football. Eastern Washington has a leg up on Northern Colorado by a lot. Nate Bell has 1,597 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 319 rushing yards, and seven rushing touchdowns. He just threw for 413 yards and three scores agianst UC Davis. Meanwhile, Northern Colorado’s quarterback Kaden Lueth has 729 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Bears’ leading rusher, Ja’Quan Guin, has less yards than Eastern Washington’s quarterback.
Northern Colorado’s wins came over Utah Tech and in OT over Northeastern State. They lost to Weber State, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana. The Bears score 23.2 a game, but were just held to 14 by a top-tier defense. They don’t have a passing game to win a track meet and that’s what it will be like against Eastern Washington. If the Eagles can score over 30 again, this game will be over.
FCS Week 6 Best Bet: Eastern Washington -5.5
