College Football rolls into Week 5 and we have a lot more data points to inform betting strategy. We’re at the stage of the season in which teams have revealed who they are and we have a good idea of who to follow and who to fade. Let’s dig into the college football analysis and trends that you need to know about for Week 5.
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How should I bet on college football this weekend? Week 5 Analytics & Trends
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan’s hopes for the College Football Playoff were dashed last week with a loss at home to Boise State. However, the Broncos can still win defend their conference championship and conference play starts this week in the MAC.
The Broncos head to Buffalo to battle the Bulls. Both teams have a 2-2 record, but couldn’t be headed in more different directions. Western Michigan had a game at Michigan counted as a loss and got steamrolled by Boise State. Buffalo got absolutely wrecked by Penn State, lost at FIU, and has struggled to get past Albany and Robert Morris. Good luck this week, Buffalo.
Buffalo has averaged over 400 yards allowed to opponents through four games this year. They’ve also allowed opponents to average over 30 points per game. Western Michigan has an offense that can function against a solid Power Four defense. What’s most troubling for Buffalo is that they’ve allowed opponents to average over five yards per carry on the ground. Western Michigan has one of the better rushing attacks in the MAC and should have no problem cutting through the Bulls’ front seven.
Western Michigan also has a +3 turnover differential despite their tougher schedule. Buffalo has a -7 turnover differential. The Broncos can take care of the ball. but the Bulls have gotten turned over by much softer opponents than Western Michigan.
It’s hard to find a spot on the field that Western Michigan doesn’t have an advantage.
Best Bet: Western Michigan -14
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee came up a little short at home against Texas last weekend, but they get an awesome opportunity to bounce back in Week Five. Auburn comes to Knoxville this weekend. The Volunteers and Tigers also have identical 3-1 records, but also appear to be headed in different directions. Tennessee has looked solid against Georgia Tech. They also wrecked Kennesaw State and Furman. Auburn slipped past Baylor on a neutral site, beat Vanderbilt in Auburn, and destroyed Southern Miss. The Tigers only loss was at home against Florida.
The Tennessee rush defense is the strongest unit on the Volunteers this year. Auburn offensive identity is based on using the run game to open up the passing game. Auburn has allowed a 9.8% sack rate on offense, while Tennessee has a 13.5% sack rate generated. That’s a massive disadvantage for the Auburn offense, and could mean a long day for Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown.
On offense, the Tennessee ground game has a clear advantage over Auburn’s run defense. Tennessee’s EPA per rush play stands at +0.33. That’s the 10th best mark in the nation. Auburn’s run defense has a EPA per rush play of -0.02, that’s 45th in the nation.
Tennessee should be able to ground and pound its way to points on offense, and keep Auburn backed up on offense. Keep in mind, this game is in Knoxville, and the Vols are off a home loss. The Volunteers should win this by double digits.
Best Bet: Tennessee -6.5
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
South Florida Bulls
South Florida comes into Week Five at 4-0, but they haven’t looked dominant against any of their FBS opponents. The Bulls only beat Army by four, FIU by 10, and Bowling Green Bay eight. They managed to rack up 59 points against Delaware State in a buy game, so there is a level of football this team is capable of dominating against.
South Florida doesn’t have a great passing attack and Temple is off a game against Army. The Owls lost and allowed 279 yards on the ground to the Black Knights, but they needed 55 carries to get there. The USF offensive line didn’t look great against Bowling Green, and Temple has a bit more beef in their front seven than the Falcons do.
Temple’s offense is actually one of the more efficient in the country. The Owls are ranked eighth nationally in EPA/play. Temple employs a ground-and-pound style that only looks to throw the ball about 20 times per game. Temple can wear down the South Florida defense with lengthy drives and continuous body blows through the ground attack.
South Florida looks ripe for an upset, and Temple is the kind of dirty, grimy team that can and will drag them into the mud. It’s hard to see the Bulls starting out 5-0 in Brian Hartline’s first season as head coach, and this looks like a matchup that can trip up South Florida.
Best Bet: Temple +6.5
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State looked rough and that was before the recent mumps outbreak. As of writing, the Aztecs have 14 confirmed cases and will be missing a lot of players for their match up against Texas State this weekend.
San Diego State is 105th in scoring offense, 119th in passing offense, and 80th in rushing offense. These Aztecs couldn’t move the ball when they were fully healthy.
Texas State comes to San Diego to open up conference play in Week Five. The Bobcats have an offense that’s capable of moving the ball. The Aztecs are already at a disadvantage.
Texas State has the sixth best rushing attack in the nation. San Diego State has the 113th ranked rush defense in the nation. That’s a bad match up. The Bobcats also have a solid passing game, and the Aztecs don’t really have many answers on offense. San Diego State is a proud program, but they’re going through a really rough time and shouldn’t be on anyone’s card until further notice.
Best Bet: Texas State -7.5
The College Football Experience
For more analysis of every college football game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to The College Football Experience. Colby Dant and Moneyline Mac talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks every week!
