Week 4 of the NFL is here! Survivor pools have been all over the place this season. If you are reading this, hopefully that means you are still alive somehow. Whether you are alive via great picks, a revival, or a second chance, let’s do our best to keep you alive for another week of The Weekly Sweat. Who are the best choices for your NFL survivor picks in Week 4?
Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs did us right with a no-sweat victory over the Dolphins as the pick of the week. San Francisco took care of Arizona, and the Detroit Lions made us sweat for the Degen play over the New York Jets but ultimately gave last week’s article a clean sweep. Week 4 is a tough one with a lot of close games.
A reminder of our general rules: be different where you can, but remain smart. Look ahead and plan the weeks in front of you, but don’t let it run you off course before you get to that future. Some weeks, the chalk will be the play; some weeks it won’t. If a matchup is making you second-guess, trust your gut! Ideally, the things to try to avoid are road teams, international games, and divisional matchups. But this won’t always be possible. Don’t back yourself into a corner where you can’t take the best play for you any given week off of a rule like that.
The Lock: Minnesota Vikings
Three Weeks into the season, the Minnesota Vikings have solidly placed themselves atop the NFC North standings at 3-0. Carson Wentz or Kyler Murray, they’ve looked good with both quarterbacks at the helm, winning two of those games on the road. For Week 4, they head home to the friendly confines of US Bank Stadium. They’ll welcome in the Miami Dolphins, a team we’ve been picking on lately, but it’s worked out well for us so far.
It’s one of the bigger spreads of the weekend, but I believe Baltimore will be the more popular pick, hopefully setting us apart from the most popular play. The reason I like Minnesota the most this weekend, Brian Flores. The Vikings defensive coordinator, one of the best in the league, is in a revenge spot here against a team that fired him amid some questionable circumstances. Flores will show no mercy on this Dolphins offense who just lost their best player for the season, De’Von Achane.
The Backup: Baltimore Ravens
While I do expect Baltimore to be the most popular pick this week, it’s for good reason. They play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in a lopsided matchup. Tennessee has been terrible through three weeks of play. The Jets throttled them in Week 1 in Nashville. Philadelphia easily beat them in Week 2; Tennessee came in the back door to cover the spread late. Last week was a terrible weather game, but the Titans couldn’t get anything going against the New York Giants.
Lamar Jackson and his new head coach Jesse Minter have started the season off on a bit of a roller coaster, but it’s had more ups than downs through three weeks. They easily handled the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. They were beating New Orleans in Week 2 before losing that game late. Then they won the heart attack game in Brazil last week. The travel and jet lag possibility is the main reason I like Miami more this week.
The Degen Special: Buffalo Bills
Boy, this is a tough one in Week 4. Minnesota and Baltimore were two easy picks to make. Beyond them, it is tough sledding looking across this slate for the next best pick. Buffalo scares me from the point of view of the Patriots being a “Close Your Eyes Special” this week. It’s the perfect spot for a seemingly down Patriots team to battle a divisional rival and change the narrative. At the same time, New England hasn’t looked great this year. Drake Maye appears to be in his head, and the team is beat up. If you want to go off-board and be different, Buffalo is a big favorite in this one for a reason.
Official Week 4 NFL Survivor Play: Vikings
Official Play Teams Used:
Week 1: Jaguars
Week 2: Buccaneers
Week 3: Chiefs
