NFL Week 4 Survivor & Contest Bombs! Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) breaks down his NFL Week 4 survivor and Circa Millions picks, starting with the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. Then Luke the Young Sharp (@lukedontcar3) joins to back the Vikings over the Dolphins as this week’s survivor play.
Laying The Points With Pittsburgh On Thursday Night
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) opens with a victory lap, and he earned it. The Kalif Raymond ladder on Monday night climbed all the way to the top at 90 yards, which paid 27 to 1. The Bears under cashed too, and so did the Padres series play after San Diego swept the Cubs. Then there is the Braves series bomb, still pending heading into game three. He is wearing a Phillies hat and rooting for the Phils. But the money stays on Atlanta, because Aaron Nola starts for Philadelphia and Zach Wheeler would be working on short rest for the first time in his career.
So the Thursday Night Football side is Pittsburgh minus 2.5, with the total at 38.5. Everyone likes the Browns as a home dog on a Thursday, and they have played well in that spot. The issue is Deshaun Watson winning three games in a row, which nobody here is buying. Watson is moving better with his legs. But his average throw still travels about four and a half yards down the field. And the Cleveland offensive line is beat up. Aaron Rodgers looked good last week, and the Steelers defense is simply the better unit. At a number under a field goal, laying the 2.5 is the bomb.
The first ladder goes right at that short passing game. Casey Concepcion is an explosive rookie, but Cleveland keeps him parked near the line of scrimmage on bubble throws. He has 12 catches for 80 yards through three games. Last week he drew about seven targets and caught only two. So the volume is there, and Watson under pressure means more quick throws his way. The ladder starts at five catches (over 4.5) at +126. Then it goes six at +250, seven at +502 and eight at +950. Nine catches pays +1720, and ten tops out at 26 to 1. He is a nickel-and-dimer, and that is exactly the profile for a ten-catch, 41-yard night.
On the Pittsburgh side, the ladder belongs to Roman Wilson. Michael Pittman is out, so Wilson is the number two behind DK Metcalf, and Denzel Ward will be on Metcalf. The real risk is Rodgers himself. Once he stops liking a receiver, that guy stops getting the ball. Wilson lost him for a while after a pass bounced off his face for an interception. The numbers are reasonable anyway. The receiving yards ladder runs 25 yards at +123, 40 at +305, 50 at +518 and 60 at +830. Then it climbs to 70 yards at 13 to 1 and 80 at 20 to 1. Also, pairing the 80-yard rung with eight Concepcion catches was quoted at 100 to 1.
The NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks Ride The Vikings
Luke the Young Sharp (@lukedontcar3) survived another sweat in Week 3. The Lions held on after Geno Smith fumbled late, and the guys also dodged Seattle, which lost to Washington. That upset knocked out a big chunk of the second contest, which is now down to just 25% of the remaining field. So Week 4 starts with two 10-point favorites. Baltimore is about an 11-point favorite at home against Tennessee. Minnesota is laying 10 to 10.5 at home against Miami. Luke has the Ravens second, because Lamar Jackson has a possible back injury and the offensive line is a problem. Baltimore is also coming back from Brazil. Their cleanest path is Cam Ward being bad.
So the pick is Minnesota over Miami, and the case is about future value as much as this week. Luke sees maybe one other usable Vikings spot, Carolina at home, and that comes very late in the season. Brian Flores also gets a revenge game against the Dolphins. His defense now faces Malik Willis, who carries a negative EPA per play under pressure. And Miami sits last in total DVOA by a huge gap. The Vikings are 3-0 without outgaining an opponent, and Kyler Murray doesn’t inspire much. But both guys apply the sleep-at-night rule here. Losing with Minnesota at home to the Dolphins is a loss they can live with.
Ownership won’t scare anyone off either. Only about 100 people have played the Vikings so far, so plenty of the field lands here this week. In a contest that size, there is no reason to get contrarian. Jefferson is questionable, but he tried to get back into last week’s game against Tampa. Luke figures Minnesota is saving him for Miami. He also chimed in from the chat afterward with one more angle. The Vikings traded J.J. McCarthy this week, and Luke thinks the locker room vibes should be better for it. Blow the horn, Minnesota.
Washington And Houston Open The Circa Millions Card
The Circa Millions card went 2-2-1 last week, which puts the year at 5-9-1 after a 1-4 start. This is the final week of the first quarter, so the quarterly prize is gone. But the overall record still matters. The first play is the early London game between Washington and Indianapolis. Marcus Mariota against Daniel Jones is a tough sell for England, but Washington plus 3.5 is a nice number with the dog. Jayden Daniels is practicing and making the trip, though he isn’t expected to play. Mariota is good enough to hurt this Colts defense. And without Alec Pierce stretching the field, Shane Steichen’s offense is stuck working over the middle.
Then it’s Houston minus 3 at home against Dallas, a game the 0-3 Texans have to win. Teams that are 0-3 against an opponent with at least one win are 47-25-1 against the spread since 2005. Since 2015 that record is 24-9-1. And since 2020 it is 13-3. The system isn’t getting bet blindly across all five qualifying teams, but it lines up here. Nico Collins is back, and the offense is completely different with him. Will Anderson is also having a Defensive Player of the Year type of season. Meanwhile the Cowboys are coming back from Brazil after a disastrous loss. There is no coming back from 0-4, so bomb the Texans.
Three Favorites To Close The Contest Five
The San Francisco line at minus 2.5 against Denver feels short, and the best part is that it sits under three. Denver just beat the Rams at home on Sunday night, which sets up a letdown spot. The Broncos’ only road game so far was a blowout loss in Kansas City. Brock Purdy, meanwhile, hasn’t been sacked all year. He also sits first in the advanced quarterback numbers with his receivers banged up. The Niners are first in total DVOA at 68.7 by a wide margin, and Denver is 16th. So give me the 49ers minus 2.5. Bo Nix has to be good for longer than a quarter and a half to beat it.
Kansas City minus 4.5 at Las Vegas is a fade of the hot start. Both teams are 3-0, but the Raiders are also 3-0 against the spread. Teams in that spot are 22-34 ATS in Week 4. Brock Bowers is back and looked great, though the defense has been playing over its head. Also, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have more wins in Las Vegas than any Raiders coach and quarterback combo. The Chiefs head into a bye next week, so there is nothing to look ahead to. And the line was 5.5 before the season, which leaves a point of value. The Raider party was fun, but it ends Sunday.
The last spot goes to Seattle minus 7 against the Chargers, even though Los Angeles fits that 0-3 trend. Last week was supposed to be their rally game. The Chargers got five turnovers against Buffalo, scored only 16 points and still didn’t cover. Now they visit an angry Seattle team that hadn’t lost in a year and a half before last week. Marcus Mariota hung 33 on them, so the defense should be in a bad mood. Darnold looked fine in his return. Meanwhile the Chargers keep running motion that never goes anywhere. Herbert could play Superman for a backdoor cover, but the call is to lay the seven.
Car Horns And Cameras In The Man In The Box
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) closes in the box with a week of screaming matches against LA drivers on his morning walks. Every single day this week, somebody treated a crosswalk like a level in Grand Theft Auto. One guy floored it, stopped right in front of him and laid on the horn. Then came a trip to the Glendale DMV to renew his license. That is where he saw First Amendment auditors in the wild for the first time, filming workers who were already having a rough day. A security guard even said his boss sent him outside so he wouldn’t engage. And the final prediction is grim, because everything that sucks wins tonight, Braves and Browns included.
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Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:17 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
8:35 Steelers vs. Browns Picks
18:56 Survivor With Luke The Young Sharp: Vikings Over Dolphins
33:57 Circa Millions
35:41 Washington vs. Indianapolis Picks
41:03 Dallas vs. Houston Picks
45:18 Denver vs. San Francisco Picks
49:23 Kansas City vs. Las Vegas Picks
55:05 Chargers vs. Seattle Picks
58:32 Man In The Box
1:09:18 Sign-Off
