NFL Week 3 Survivor & Contest Bombs! Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) and Luke the Young Sharp make their NFL Week 3 survivor pick with about 8,000 entries still alive in Circa Survivor. Luke weighs the Chiefs at Miami and Seattle at Washington, then lands on Detroit over the Jets at Ford Field. CJ’s Circa Millions card is Ravens -3 against the Cowboys in Brazil, Buccaneers +1, Steelers +3.5, Jaguars -3 and Rams -2.5 at Denver.
More free NFL picks every week at sportsgamblingpodcast.com/nfl-picks.
Monday Paid, And Thursday Starts With Atlanta
Monday night was a good one. CJ had the Rams and the under. Also, the Blake Corum step ladder cashed around +270 when Corum got to 79 yards. Then the Terrance Ferguson reception ladder hit at six catches for 14-to-1. But Ferguson dropped three balls, and seven catches would have paid 27-to-1. He brings that up more than once. From there, Jaxson Dart getting hurt early sends him off on the league’s real flaw. A whole season hangs on a dozen quarterbacks. So one turf toe and it’s over.
Thursday is Falcons at Packers, with Atlanta getting 4.5 and the total down to 42.5. Michael Penix is back from the torn ACL. Before that, Cooper Rush spent two weeks as about the worst quarterback CJ has seen. Now Atlanta is 0-2 straight up and 0-2 against the spread as a dog. And teams in that spot in Week 3 have covered 71% of the time since 2015. Meanwhile Green Bay played overtime against the Jets and lost Jayden Reed. So the pick is Falcons +4.5, because the numbers say so.
The Kyle Pitts And Jonnu Smith Ladders
Kyle Pitts averaged 41.7 yards a game with Penix at quarterback. His number is 37.5, so CJ takes the over. Then he steps it up: 50 yards at +184 and 60 yards at 3-to-1. Next comes the real ladder. With Reed out, he expects Green Bay to lean on tight ends. So old faithful Jonnu Smith is the target at 8.5 receiving yards. First CJ bombs the over. Then he skips a few rungs to 25 yards at +341 and keeps climbing. It’s 40 yards at +820, 50 at +1260 and 60 at +1940. Also on the board are 70 at 27-to-1 and 80 at 37-to-1. His ruling is that there is no law, so it’s the full ladder.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick: Lions Over The Jets
Luke brings three names. First, the Chiefs are laying 11.5 at Miami. He reads off Dolphins trends that say they cover more than they win. Then Seattle at Washington gets a long look, with the Commanders’ roster falling apart. But his number one is Detroit. Dan Campbell is coming off a home loss with ten days to stew. Also, the Jets played overtime. And Aaron Glenn’s revenge angle cuts both ways, because Detroit knows him best. Luke has a bad feeling about Kansas City in South Beach at 1 p.m. So CJ signs off on the Lions. He likes the game theory too, since half the pool figures to be on the Chiefs. After that, CJ sends Luke off and clicks himself off the stream by accident. Then he stares at a black screen for a couple of minutes. He’d like you to know the show was not over.
Circa Millions Week 3
Last week went 2-3, which puts him 3-7 on the year. Now he wants back to .500. First up is Baltimore -3 over Dallas in Brazil. Derrick Henry got the ball five times with a 10-point lead last week, and the Ravens blew it. Also, the last time Henry played in Dallas he ran for 150 yards and three touchdowns. Second is Tampa Bay +1 against Minnesota. That’s an 0-2 team at home against a 2-0 team. And the Vikings have Kyler Murray at quarterback and a fourth-string running back up next.
Third is Pittsburgh +3.5 against Cincinnati. He calls this rivalry cousins brawling in an alley, and he likes the under at 42.5 as well. Fourth is Jacksonville -3 against New England, one of the few real home games the Jaguars get all year. Then his fifth came down to Washington +7.5 and a handful of big dogs. In the end he took the Rams -2.5 at Denver on Sunday night, trusting Sean McVay over Sean Payton. Meanwhile the Man in the Box covers a Caleb Williams video with 50,000 views and 1,200 comments. It also covers a gate remote nobody will replace. Plus CJ is at the Tacoma Comedy Club with TJ Miller, two shows Friday and two Saturday. Let’s go Lions.
Watch: The moment everyone thought it was over… 😨🏈 #injury #sports #football
Podcast Chapters
0:00 NFL Week 3 Survivor & Contest Bombs Cold Open
1:33 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
3:02 Monday Night Recap: Blake Corum & Terrance Ferguson Ladders
4:06 Jaxson Dart Injury & The Quarterback Problem
7:01 SGPN Colombia Earthquake Relief
7:37 Thursday Night Preview: Falcons Vs. Packers
11:27 Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Ladder
12:53 Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Ladder
18:36 Surviving CJ: Week 3 With Luke The Young Sharp
21:50 Survivor Options: Chiefs, Seahawks & Lions
28:25 Luke’s Surviving CJ Pick: Lions Over The Jets
34:29 Circa Millions Week 3 Picks
36:23 Ravens -3 Vs. Cowboys In Brazil
41:37 Buccaneers +1 Vs. Vikings
46:02 Steelers +3.5 Vs. Bengals
49:16 Jaguars -3 Vs. Patriots
52:17 Scrap Heap & Rams -2.5 At Broncos
57:39 Week 3 Picks Recap
58:01 The Man In The Box: Tacoma Shows & Plugs
59:53 Caleb Williams Video Comment Flood
1:01:41 The Broken Gate Remote Saga
1:03:37 Sign-Off
