It’s never too early to start looking at Week 3! NFL betting lines have been out ever since the schedule dropped back in May. Now, we’re two weeks into the NFL, and it feels like we have the answer key to some teams. For other teams, we now have more questions than answers. From May to NFL Week 3, what are the biggest line changes, what does it tell us, and the most important question: what should we be betting on because of the movement?
Similar to last week, Week 3 lines haven’t shifted a ton across the league. Most teams are within a point or two of where they were back in May. But there have been a few pretty sizable shifts based on what we’ve seen through the first two games of the year. Those will be the games we’ll focus on this week. Of the three teams we highlighted last week, the line only moved in the correct direction in one of the games.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) to (-7)
The Buffalo Bills have looked like a strong team through the first two weeks. In Week 1, they got into an epic shootout in Houston with the Texans. Exchanging blows back and forth. Buffalo got the last laugh in that one, taking the 36-31 win and covering the -1.5 spread. Week 2, they opened the new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Thursday Night Football. The Detroit Lions came to town, and the Bills handed them a whoopin’. The final score was 41-31, but I promise you it wasn’t that close of a game.
The Bills offense has been flawless, and their defense looks to be the same as it’s always been. Buffalo wants to get into shootouts and outscore the other team each week. In Week 3, they take on the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles has not been impressive through two weeks. From preseason Super Bowl aspirations to Jim Harbaugh’s first-ever 0-2 start as a head coach in the NFL or College Football. It’s not just starting 0-2, however. It’s losing to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, 26-14, and never being in the game. Then, following it up with a similar 26-14 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams were projected to be near the bottom of the league in 2026.
With a shift from -2.5 to -7, it’s clear the books are reacting to both of these teams’ trajectories through two weeks. It’s crossed that field goal line and turned into an entire touchdown line. The question now, we already know Buffalo is good. Are the Chargers as bad as they look? Can their offense get into a shootout with Buffalo and not turn the ball over like crazy as they’ve done in Week 1 & 2?
It’s not easy to go against the Bills this week, and this pick is more about taking the Chargers. Like the Chiefs and Colts Sunday night, this game just feels like a shootout between two teams that are closer than we thought they were. I’ll take the bait on the Chargers one more time to cover this. Buffalo went 4-7 in 2025 as favorites of 5.5 or more.
Chargers: +7 (-108)
San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) to (-8.5)
The San Francisco 49ers have looked like absolute world beaters through two weeks. Super team Los Angeles Rams, I’m sorry, who? They flew down to Australia, enjoyed their time there, kicked ass, and came home. No jet lag for Kyle Shanahan’s bunch. They showed up on Sunday and did the same thing all over. They took the Miami Dolphins to task and solidly whooped them 35-13.
Despite two big wins in two weeks, this number has dropped only three points, but across the number 10 makes it a huge drop. Now, the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 looked like they might not be the doormat everyone thought they would be. They had that huge win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. Come Week 2 with Drew Lock and the Seattle Seahawks, and they went right back to looking like a bad team.
It’s honestly a little puzzling that this line has moved so much. As the week goes on, I’d expect it to shift back toward that 11.5 number. San Francisco has proved they are a good team and aren’t messing around. They’ve blown out both opponents they’ve played. Arizona was a surprise in Week 1, but the Chargers proved maybe it’s them a little bit. The 49ers are a hammer here.
49ers: -8.5 (-105)
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) to (-2.5)
The Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers game has the most interesting line movement of the week. Minnesota back in May was the underdog here. A lot has changed since then for the team. Who would be their starting quarterback was still up in the air. Kyler Murray or JJ McCarthy? Turns out, it would be neither who led them through the first two weeks of the season.
After Murray went down early in Week 1, Carson Wentz stepped in and has now led the team to two straight wins and the solo lead of the NFC North. First, it was over the Packers in a comeback victory in Week 1. Then they slugged it out in a very NFC North game against the Bears who they beat 9-6. Kyler Murray likely will be cleared to play in Week 3, so Minnesota will have a decision to make.
On the other side, Tampa Bay left a lot of people in a tough spot in Week 2. They were one of the most selected teams in Survivor and lost outright to Deshaun Watson and the Browns. They looked bad; Baker Mayfield looked bad. But in Week 1, they hung with the Bengals, who looked like a great team in Week 2. Which team shows up this week is the question. The line flipping from Vikings as dogs to Vikings as favorites seems appropriate based on all the things that have happened since May. I’ll ride with the better coaching and team in this game.
Vikings: -2.5 (-105)
