There’s nothing like calling your shot on a team to cover, and they are just crushing things at halftime before they blow it in the second half and you are left holding a losing ticket. That’s where betting on the first half comes into play. Identifying what teams might be good enough to hang around early, or strong enough to dominate their opponent early. Let’s try and crack the opening script with these NFL first-half best bets for Week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Baker Mayfield and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Mayfield’s former team, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland looked like a hot mess in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. On just the third pass of the game, Deshaun Watson threw a terrible interception, and the Jaguars never looked back. At the end of the first quarter, they were up 10, and by halftime, 24.
Tampa got off to a slow start last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, but the team had a few sloppy turnovers that didn’t help. There’s no doubt in my mind Baker will have his boys fired up against his old team for this one. That Florida September humidity that Sean Green is always talking about will be a massive advantage for the Buccaneers as well. Cleveland played in Jacksonville last week, but didn’t stay in Florida and went back to Ohio for the week.
Philadelphia Eagles (Pick)
This might be the play of the day for Sunday’s action. The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road taking on Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans. There was some hope around Tennessee maybe turning the corner this year with a new and experienced coaching staff. After both the preseason, in which Cam Ward looked very bad, and Week 1, where the New York Jets of all teams easily stomped them.
Philadelphia got things rolling in the second quarter last week against their division rivals, the Washington Commanders. In the second quarter, they put up two touchdowns to take a five-point lead into halftime. They did a good job getting up on the Commanders, just had a hard time holding the cover late as Washington walked in the back door. All Philadelphia has to do is be up a simple field goal over one of the worst teams in the league? Sign me up.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
The reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks got off to a slow start last week against the New England Patriots. Sam Darnold went down, and they had to adjust the game plan. This week, they know Darnold will be out, and Drew Lock is their guy. They’ll have a game plan built around the backup, and the Arizona Cardinals defense isn’t quite as good as New England’s.
I’ve been writing all week about how we should not be overreacting to Arizona’s Week 1 victory. Maybe they’ll be better than everyone was expecting, but that doesn’t make them a great team. This Seattle defense alone will cover this first-half spread. This game is also the biggest line mover of the week from the look ahead. Take advantage of the books overreacting and trust this Seattle defense.
Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Chicago and Minnesota should be a fun game to watch at Soldier Field in Chicago. We saw the Bears go on the road to Carolina last week and just pour it on, hanging 59 points on the Panthers. Ben Johnson has been vocal about wanting this team to beat the 2013 Denver Broncos scoring records. If you are trying to beat scoring records, you aren’t coming out and tiptoeing around your opponents. The scripted plays are going to be big hitters trying to get points on the board and turn this into a shootout.
Last week the Bears already had 30 points at halftime and a six-point lead. Minnesota will be a tougher opponent, but with backup quarterback Carson Wentz leading the way, they won’t want this to be a shootout unless it has to be. I expect a much safer game plan from Kevin O’Connell and company trying to slow the game down and keep it within reach. All we need is for Chicago to hit on some of their stuff and get a field goal more than the Vikings early on. Don’t count Minnesota out in the game, but give me Chicago early.
