Five and a half is the number that frames this one, with Buffalo laying it at home against Detroit on Thursday, September 17 at 8:15 PM ET in Buffalo, NY, and a total of 54.5 stacked on top. Sean Green and Ryan Kramer went through the game on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode, and neither of them needed much convincing.
Lions vs Bills Odds
Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 54.5. Ryan called that an insanely high number on air, historically high, and said he was more or less okay with it given what both offenses have shown. Sean noted the number matters more than it used to, since teams have gotten aggressive going for two and the extra point moved back, so five is a bigger hurdle than it once was.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): BUF -5.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): BUF -5.5
Ryan brought a new marker to the picks sheet for this game, a knife emoji he is using to flag the bet splits and account types that point at a sharp side. Buffalo got it. He watched the number get pushed out to 5.5 during the week and read that move as money that knows something.
Sean’s argument was about the spot more than the rosters. Detroit is coming off an overtime win in which they played what amounted to a full extra quarter, then dumped the Gatorade in the postgame and went nuts about simply getting the win. Now they travel to Buffalo on a short week for a stadium opening. He cited teams off an overtime game on a short week at 6-25 ATS, and 3-16 when that Thursday game is on the road, and said this was almost as hard a spot as a third straight road game.
The offensive line is the other half of it. Sean went down Detroit’s projected starting five and counted three of them unavailable, the left guard, the player who was supposed to open the year at center, and a tackle. A banged-up front outdoors in primetime is not where Jared Goff has historically been at his best, and Ryan tagged this as one of those games where the pressure gets to him. Ryan also wondered whether Dan Campbell really wants to grind his bell-cow back into the ground in week 2 if the game gets away early.
They did give Detroit its due. Per the show, Dan Campbell has thrived as a dog, and teams that failed to cover in week 1 and are week 2 underdogs have gone 26-11-2. Buffalo’s defense was not impressive against Houston, where the quarterback moved the ball until a late turnover cost his team the game, and the Bills have a new defensive coordinator switching from a four-man front to a three-man front, which takes time. Ryan went the other way on one micro matchup, though, comparing Buffalo’s explosive-play rate on offense to what Detroit gave up to the Saints once the adjustments were in. Both of them laid the points.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
