I can’t tell you how excited writing this article makes me. This means the NFL is back! All the off-season futures, the NFL Draft, rookie camps, mini camp, preseason picks- it’s all behind us. It’s time to get down to business. Making weekly picks and sweating out each game, there are few feelings like it. In this weekly article, we’ll rank out our picks for each game every week based on confidence. Who wins the game? With that being said, let’s dive in and look at the confidence pool NFL picks Week 1 style.
We’ve got action all week/weekend long. It kicks off with a Seahawks vs Patriots Super Bowl rematch in Seattle with a special Wednesday night game. Thursday night, the NFL heads down under to Melbourne, Australia for an NFC West showdown between the Rams and 49ers. Sunday is a full slate, and it all wraps up on Monday Night Football with the Broncos at Chiefs at Arrowhead. I’ll be honest, the NFL schedule makers weren’t messing around for Week 1 in 2026. We’ve got some tough picks to make; let’s get those confidence pools off to a great start!
Can’t Miss – High Confidence Picks
1. Chargers Over Cardinals
2. Jaguars Over Browns
3. Eagles Over Commanders
4. Ravens Over Colts
5. Lions Over Saints
Chargers over Cardinals is the easiest selection of the week. Los Angeles is an elite Super Bowl contender with a superstar quarterback and great coaching. The Cardinals are, well, the Cardinals. They have some pieces, especially on offense, that might be great for the long term. But asking Mike LeFleur to go against a healthy Chargers team with Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh on the road for his first game is tough.
The Jaguars were my pick in this week’s The Weekly Sweat Survivor Picks Week 1. They do get second billing here because the Chargers are a home run, but strategy-wise I liked the Jaguars more. The Jaguars went 13-4 last year; Liam Cohen looks like a strong coach; Trevor Lawrence had a career year. The Browns are starting Deshaun Watson, who hasn’t played since 2024, and they are a bit of a mess. Even if you believe the Jaguars regress this year, it isn’t Week 1 at home.
Division games can be a bit scary to rank this high, but I feel good about this one. All the news out of Washington has been bad. Offensive line woes; their quarterback seems a bit distracted. The Eagles are 9-1 in Week 1 over the last 10 years and 7-3 against the Commanders in their last seven meetings. Toss in home-field advantage, and I’m sold.
The Ravens do have a new head coach, but that doesn’t concern me a ton in this matchup. A healthy Lamar Jackson facing a recovering Daniel Jones is a huge advantage for Baltimore. The Colts were exposed as frauds as the season went on last year, even before the Jones injury, and this Ravens team is legit.
The New Orleans Saints are going to be a good team this year, and maybe one of the bigger surprises in the league. But, on the road at Detroit in Week 1, in a season when this Lions team is bouncing back from missing the playoffs, it’s going to be a tall task to win. Saints to cover is on the table, but the Lions will take the win.
Feelin’ Good – Confident Picks
6. Bengals Over Buccaneers
7. Bears Over Panthers
8. Steelers Over Falcons
9. Cowboys Over Giants
10. Broncos Over Chiefs
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are always a scary opponent to face. Emeka Egbuka and others are still questionable, and the offense has a new look without Mike Evans. The Cincinnati Bengals are healthy, and despite their traditional slow starts, they’ve changed some things up and got back in the win column last year; expect that again at home this week.
The Chicago Bears want to have an offense that outperforms the 2013 Denver Broncos. We better see it in Week 1, Ben Johnson! All signs point to this Chicago Bears team being a team ready to take that next tier “elite step.” Carolina is coming off a playoff appearance and will be a good team, but I’ll take the better team here.
Steelers-Falcons is a battle of new head coaches for their respective teams. Honestly, I think both teams could be a little better than expected this year. But Aaron Rodgers is still a good enough game manager, and familiar enough with Mike McCarthy’s system that I’ll take that over Tua Tagovailoa’s first game with Kevin Stefanski.
I’m a believer in John Harbaugh and the future of this New York Giants Football team. Malik Nabers is still working his way back; will Cam Skattebo be fully ready for this week? Dallas will come into this one guns-a-blazing. The Cowboys own their division rivals. Dallas has won nine of the last ten matchups and 16 of the last 18 games the teams have played.
It might not be a popular opinion, but I don’t think the Kansas City Chiefs will be all that great this season. They struggled big time before Patrick Mahomes was hurt late last season. It was wondered whether Mahomes would even be ready for this game. He is, and he can always be magical, but there are more questions than answers around this team. Denver was a starting quarterback away from a Super Bowl appearance last season and beat the Chiefs in both games. They’ll do it again Monday night in Arrowhead.
Hold Your Breath – True Toss Ups
11. Titans Over Jets
12. Rams Over 49ers
13. Vikings Over Packers
14. Raiders Over Dolphins
15. Texans Over Bills
16. Patriots Over Seahawks
There’s a handful of close “toss-up” games, but these ones could make all the difference. Titans and Jets. Even this game sounds exciting after seven months of no NFL action. Pick your poison of two bad teams, but the Titans are clearly the less bad team. Their coaching staff is competent, and Robert Saleh will be looking for revenge here.
We’ll head to the Thursday Night Football in Australia. It’s a tough game, but the Rams have built a super team and Sean McVay has beaten Kyle Shanahan in four of their last five matchups.
The Vikings host the Packers in an NFC North showdown. Kyler Murray will be the biggest key to this game. If he fits in right away, which is what I expect, we’ll be golden here. Kevin O’Connell always brings good football teams and has proven he can fix quarterbacks who have skills. He’s also beaten Matt LeFleur in three of their last four matchups.
The Raiders vs Dolphins is a pretty gross matchup between two teams that shouldn’t be very good, but either could surprise this year. For me, Kirk Cousins and his slew of weapons is the deciding factor here.
I’m calling for an upset in this game as the Texans host the Bills. This Texans defense is nasty. Their offense is also underrated. They’ll control this game and keep Josh Allen in check like they did when they won this matchup in 2025.
Finally, the first game of the week. The Super Bowl rematch. I’m also calling for the upset here, but it’s low confidence overall. This Patriots team is good and made massive upgrades this offseason. Seattle lost a lot of key pieces, and the Super Bowl hangover should be in full effect. It’s hard to win in Seattle, but the Patriots will get it done in a tough game.
