The 2026 NASCAR Chase field is set! NASCAR did away with the playoffs format this year and went back to the old “Chase for the Cup” style of postseason, with some new twists. 16 drivers made the Chase, similar to the playoffs. However, win and you are in was no longer a thing. Playoff points are gone; cut lines and eliminations are gone as well. They’ve reset everyone based on their “seeding.” From here on, it’s 10 races, most points wins. Stage points, fastest lap points, and a 15-point bonus for wins will all be huge factors in determining the champion. Let’s look at the 2026 Chase picks, championship odds, and best bets.
When the reset occurs, the #1 seed will have 2100 points. The #2 seed will have 2075, with #3 at 2065. Seed #4 will start at 2060, and then each position down will start with five fewer points. The final driver in, the #16 seed, will begin the Chase with 2000 points. This gives the #1 driver a full 100-point advantage over 16th place. According to Racing Insights, 85% of the champions came from the top six seeds after 25,000 simulations were run on how the 2026 Chase could unfold.
While 85% might be true, that means 15% of the time the winner comes from outside of the top six seeds. We’ve seen multiple times this season where drivers go on crazy runs of being hot and do crazy things in the points standings. First, it was Tyler Reddick pulling out to a massive lead by amassing wins like crazy. Then, when it seemed out of hand, Denny Hamlin reeled him in, blew past him, and clinched the regular season title in a breeze.
Joey Logano looked like he might not make the Chase. Then, he ended up climbing all the way to ninth at the reset. Tony Stewart is the most famous case of an underdog winning it all. In 2011, he said, “We don’t belong in the Chase.” Then went on to win five of 10 races and clinch the title. Wins now are worth more points than ever before. Stage points are a new factor in the Chase we didn’t have before as well. They did not exist the last time we had the Chase format.
Chase Standings After the Reset:
Denny Hamlin 2100 Leader
Ryan Blaney 2075 -25
Tyler Reddick 2065 -35
Ty Gibbs 2060 -40
Chase Briscoe 2055 -45
Christopher Bell 2050 -50
Kyle Larson 2045 -55
Chase Elliott 2040 -60
Joey Logano 2035 -65
Chris Buescher 2030 -70
Daniel Suárez 2025 -75
Carson Hocevar 2020 -80
William Byron 2015 -85
Bubba Wallace 2010 -90
Austin Cindric 2005 -95
Ryan Preece 2000 -100
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase
Denny Hamlin +150
Christopher Bell +600
Ryan Blaney +750
Ty Gibbs +1200
Chase Briscoe +1600
Kyle Larson +1800
Joey Logano +1900
William Byron +2500
Chase Elliott +2500
Carson Hocevar +5000
Bubba Wallace +8000
Chris Buescher +10000
Daniel Suarez +17500
Ryan Preece +17500
Austin Cindric +17500
2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase Picks and Best Bets
Ty Gibbs (+1200)
Denny Hamlin is the major favorite for good reason. It’s the storybook ending to a tragic year, and he’s had a great season. At shorter than 2/1 odds, betting-wise? No thank you. I will, however, turn my attention to a couple of Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. It starts with the young Ty Gibbs. Hopefully, back in November, when I gave out Ty Gibbs to win it all at 40/1. If you didn’t, there’s still time to get in at a decent number on FanDuel on the young gun.
Ty Gibbs has the most stage points in the series. And he’s the first to get to 200.
Certain folks are running out of excuses…
— Zach (@Team54Zach) August 24, 2026
Gibbs has turned out to be everything I saw in the potential that led to that 40/1 bet, and maybe even more. He’s very nicely positioned himself in fourth place entering the Chase, just 40 points behind Denny Hamlin. Gibbs led the series in stage points scored in the regular season (181). Edging out Denny Hamlin (179) by two points. Over 26 races, he proved he could outscore him in that manner. Ty Gibbs leads all drivers with the most top 10’s at Chase tracks we’ve already visited this season. It will take a valiant effort, but from what we’ve seen in 2026, this kid has all the makings of a Cup Series Champion.
Ty Gibbs earned a Top 10 at every Chase track except Talladega this season. He leads the Chase field with 7 Top 10s scored at Chase tracks so far. pic.twitter.com/0o2qKZTjSt
— Daniel Céspedes (@_DanielCespedes) September 4, 2026
Chase Briscoe (+1600)
Briscoe is as low as 8/1 in some places, so I urge you to shop around. If you are lucky enough to have Hard Rock Sportsbook, that’s the place to get down on Briscoe at this amazing 16/1 number. Briscoe started the season out a little slowly, but once he picked up steam, he hasn’t looked back. He fought and clawed his way into the top five, putting him in that 85% chance-to-win group. Briscoe had a strong run to start the Playoffs last season, dominating at Darlington, finishing top 10 in the first five races, seven of the first eight, and picking up two wins. That is the makings of a championship run if I’ve seen one. Briscoe is on a similar run down the stretch of the regular season, finishing with six top-six finishes in the last nine races.
The Chase sets up nicely for Chase, who has really run well everywhere. He should kick it off with a great run at Darlington, and I gave out Monday’s newspaper headline on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast this week as I called my shot. It’ll read something to the effect of Briscoe the new favorite to win the Chase? Chase wins the return to the Chase? The headlines right themselves! With all the speed and ability of this team, this car, Toyota, and this driver. It’s way too good to pass up Chase to win the Chase at this number. I’d take it as low as 8/1 even if that’s the only option you have!
Kyle Larson (+1800)
Last but not least, we’ll head over to The Score Sportsbook where we can find the reigning and defending champion Kyle Larson at 18/1. I get it: 50-race winless streak; we’ve been calling him Captain Shook on the show. But the number has dipped too far. It was a different format, but Larson still won it all last season despite not winning in the Playoffs.
Plain and simple, Larson is too talented a race car driver, on too good of a team to not bet at this number. It’s been a struggle at times, but if anyone can turn it on. Larson is that guy. I won’t be sad if this bet loses, but I’ll be really sad if it hits and I don’t have it.
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