It’s time to crown the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. For the first time since Kyle Busch won his final championship in 2019, NASCAR returns to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the season finale. It’s time to dive into the final race of the year for the NASCAR Cup Series picks, odds, and best bets for the Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Kyle Larson is in the Cat-Bird’s seat for his third championship. Jeff Burton this week mentioned that more people have walked on the moon than have won three NASCAR Cup Series titles. Larson is set to cement himself as one of the series’ best ever. Larson’s clinching scenarios if either Bell or Hamlin has a perfect day are as follows. A third-place finish in stage 1. Eight total points between the two stages. Or, finishing 28th or better with no stage points. If he does any of those things, nobody can catch him. Bell (-67) and Hamlin (-70) are both mathematically still alive, but they’ll need almost perfect days AND Larson to have major issues.
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On another note, Carson Hocevar was suspended by Spire Motorsports for this weekend’s race. Hocevar will be at the track this weekend and remains with the team in 2027. They decided to sit the driver of the #77 after his actions at Martinsville. Former Spire driver Justin Haley will field the car this weekend.
Odds to Win NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Kyle Larson +420
Tyler Reddick +600
Christopher Bell +600
Ryan Blaney +600
Denny Hamlin +650
Chase Briscoe +750
William Byron +1200
Bubba Wallace +1800
Ty Gibbs +1800
Chase Elliott +2000
Austin Cindric +2500
Joey Logano +2700
Corey Heim +3500
Alex Bowman +5000
Josh Berry +5500
Ryan Preece +6000
Ross Chastain +8000
Chris Buescher +8000
Brad Keselowski +10000
Shane Van Gisbergen +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
AJ Allmendinger +12500
Justin Haley +15000
Austin Dillon +20000
Connor Zilisch +20000
Erik Jones +25000
Michael McDowell +30000
Todd Gilliland +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +40000
Riley Herbst +40000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +40000
Zane Smith +40000
Cody Ware +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Austin Hill +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Chad Finchum +50000
Casey Mears +50000
JJ Yeley +50000
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Best Bets
William Byron Top 5 Finish (+200)
Let’s kick things off with last week’s winner William Byron. It’s too little, too late for a championship, but what a great way for the Hendrick #24 team to finish the season. Byron is coming off the win at Martinsville and a second-place finish at Talladega. Over the last eight races, Byron has six top-10 runs. He had a rough day at Charlotte, but at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Chicagoland, the last three 1.5-mile tracks on the schedule, Byron finished top seven in all three, including a fourth-place finish at Chicagoland.
Here at Homestead-Miami, Byron has been one of the better drivers in the field. In the last two races here that were run at the later fall date, Byron finished sixth and fourth. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th at the track over his last six starts. I’ll ride the momentum of the #24 car for one final race in 2026.
AJ Allmendinger Top 10 Finish (+550)
This may be the best bang for your buck bet on the board this entire weekend. Bet365 has the best number I’ve seen for this out there. Overall, it’s been a tough season for AJ Allmendinger, as Kaulig Racing has been in a lame duck season before they go to Dodge full-time with their return to the Cup Series in 2027. Allmendinger will return with the team, as was announced this weekend. However, AJ loves Homestead-Miami Speedway maybe more than anywhere else. He has the best average finish (5.75) in the four NextGen races of all drivers. It’s been four straight top-10 finishes. In 14 starts here, dating back to 2008, Allmendinger has finished 11 or better in eight of them. He’s worth a pick as the top-finishing Chevrolet at 50/1 odds as well.
Chase Briscoe to Win (+750)
This is an interesting week to look for outright bets. I keep finding myself coming back to Chase Briscoe in this market. He’s been a force to be reckoned with at 1.5-mile tracks down the stretch. He won at Charlotte most recently, the week before he won at Las Vegas. He was leading late at Kansas and wasn’t able to hold on with older tires. The 1.5-mile track before that? Another Briscoe win in the return to Chicagoland. We haven’t had a chance to see Briscoe here at Homestead since he’s been settled into this Joe Gibbs Racing ride. The track lines up perfectly for his driving style.
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