NASCAR will crown the first-ever “O’Reilly Series” Champion Saturday evening at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The first time this series has ever had “The Chase” couldn’t have worked out much better. A staggering five drivers enter Homestead week with a shot to be crowned the champion of the series. Let’s dive in and take a look at the NASCAR O’Reilly Series picks, odds, and best bets for the Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
2024 champion Justin Allgaier leads the points entering the race. 22 points behind him is reigning champion Jesse Love. Young gun Corey Day is just 23 points back, while Carson Kvapil is 31 points out. Sheldon Creed will need a near-perfect day and probably a little help; he enters 42 points behind Justin Allgaier. If Allgaier can score 54 points on the day, he clinches the title no matter what anyone else does. The green flag for this one is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on CW on Saturday.
Odds to Win NASCAR O’Reilly Series Championship Race
Justin Allgaier +350
Carson Kvapil +450
Corey Day +500
Jesse Love +500
Sheldon Creed +750
Sam Mayer +1000
Brent Crews +1200
Austin Hill +1400
Taylor Gray +1600
Brandon Jones +2000
Sammy Smith +2500
William Sawalich +2500
Rajah Caruth +4000
Parker Retzlaff +5000
Ryan Sieg +5000
Nicholas Sanchez +6500
Anthony Alfredo +8000
Harrison Burton +8000
Andrew Patterson +15000
Jeremy Clements +15000
Dean Thompson +20000
Jeb Burton +25000
Patrick Staropoli +50000
Blaine Perkins +75000
Kyle Sieg +75000
Brad Perez +100000
Brennan Poole +100000
Dawson Cram +100000
Garrett Smithley +100000
Joey Gase +100000
Josh Bilicki +100000
Josh Williams +100000
Lavar Scott +100000
Mason Maggio +100000
Patrick Emerling +100000
Preston Pardus +100000
Ryan Ellis +100000
Will Rodgers +100000
Odds to Win 2026 O’Reilly Series Championship
Justin Allgaier -200
Jesse Love +240
Corey Day +260
Carson Kvapil +800
Sheldon Creed +1400
NASCAR O’Reilly Series Championship Race Best Bets
Corey Day Over Justin Allgaier (+110)
Corey Day was built for this racetrack. He’s yet to race here in the O’Reilly Series, but I’m looking forward to watching it. This young, budding superstar racing for Rick Hendrick with Kyle Larson’s full blessing and praise has a championship hanging in the air right in front of him. This track races the way dirt drivers love. Hard to handle, rip the fence, search around for the best line. Day will thrive here. I’ll give Allgaier his flowers for the win the last time the series was here last March. Prior to that, Allgaier has not been good at this track. Five of his last eight starts were 15th or worse.
The other reason I’m fading Allgaier this week ,he tends to choke in big moments. Year after year of being the favorite, he couldn’t get it done. Justin finally did in 2024, but he tried to choke it away before he did. He wrecked his primary car in practice and had to go to a backup. He had a flat tire, a restart violation, and a pit road speeding penalty. Allgaier did everything he could to give it away. One slips up at all and Day beats him. I don’t think he’ll even take that.
Austin Hill Top 5 (+190)
Austin Hill has struggled down the stretch in his final full-time season in the O’Reilly Series before he officially goes full time in the Cup Series in 2027. But he’s got one more good run in him this weekend at Homestead. If you look at his record here, it’s outstanding. He finished ninth in his first career start. Since then, a fourth-place and a third-place finish that surround a win in 2024. He led 84 laps in that victory.
This season, Richard Childress Racing has been great at intermediate tracks. Hill scored a seventh-place finish at Charlotte and a ninth at Las Vegas. At Darlington and Chicagoland, Hill scored a fifth-place finish. It was a third-place run at the summer Charlotte race, and seventh at Texas in the spring. For old times’ sake, let’s run back an Austin Hill top five one more time.
Corey Day to Win (race) (+500)
Building off the above points on Corey Day, he should have the green light to go balls to the wall, and as long as he can’t keep them off the wall, expect that Hendrickcars.com #17 to be a rocket ship. Day won the last two 1.5-mile track races on the schedule at Charlotte and Las Vegas. He also finished second at the close-quarters track of Darlington. As someone with a 30/1 championship ticket in my pocket, I’ll be pulling hard for the 20-year-old Californian.
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