How To Win Circa Survivor
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are live from the Circa sportsbook in Las Vegas. They break down how to win Circa Survivor. It is the pro football pool where you pick one team each week. And you can never reuse a team. First, the guys map out all 20 picks in one sitting. They start with an easy Week 1 spot. They save the Rams for Thanksgiving. Then they cover when it makes sense to chop or sell. Sign up before the deadline and follow along @GamblingPodcast.
What Is Circa Survivor
Circa Survivor is the pro football pool that takes over Las Vegas every fall. You pick one team each week to win, and you can never use that team again. One loss and you are out, so survival is the whole game. Survive to the end and you split the pot with whoever is left standing. At taping there were already about 13,000 entries in play. Sean and Kramer said the pool should clear 25 million dollars, and Circa takes no rake, so the entire prize goes back to the players. Circa is also guaranteeing 30 million dollars across all of its contests this year, which is why the whole industry watches this one.
The SGPN Survivor Strategy
The core rule is simple. Don’t get cute. Sean and Kramer lean on fading bad teams all season, and they end up fading the Cardinals four times and the Titans four times. First, they save their best teams for the thin holiday slates. They banked the Rams for Thanksgiving and flagged how tight the Christmas spreads get, with almost every game landing inside a field goal. Then they watch the red flags: early division games, non-conference road spots, and teams coming off international trips. And they count a team’s true home games before burning one, since the Jaguars only have six real home dates. Sign up early so you and your proxy are not scrambling on the first Saturday of the season.
Playing Circa Survivor By Proxy
You do not have to be in Nevada to play. Sean and Kramer walk through footballcontest.com, where the promo code SGPN takes 50 dollars off your proxy fees. You can sign up in person in Las Vegas or Reno, or you can play by proxy from anywhere in the country. The entry window runs all the way up to the Saturday of Week 1. But the guys still push getting in early, so nothing goes wrong at the buzzer when that first pick locks.
The Full SGPN Survivor Path
Week 1: Chargers over Cardinals
Week 2: Buccaneers over Browns
Week 3: 49ers over Cardinals
Week 4: Bears over Jets
Week 5: Patriots over Raiders
Week 6: Eagles over Panthers
Week 7: Texans over Giants
Week 8: Bengals over Titans
Week 9: Seahawks over Cardinals
Week 10: Colts over Dolphins
Week 11: Chiefs over Cardinals
Thanksgiving: Rams over Packers
Week 12: Jaguars over Titans
Week 13: Broncos over Dolphins
Week 14: Lions over Titans
Week 15: Packers over Dolphins
Christmas: Bills over Broncos
Week 16: Ravens over Browns
Week 17: Steelers over Titans
Week 18: Panthers over Falcons
When To Chop Or Sell
The default plan is to anti-hedge and ride the whole entry out. But the guys are open to chopping once the contest gets deep and only a handful of entries remain. They would not sell more than half of a ticket, because the top prize is life-changing money. And they floated locking in six figures, somewhere in the 100 to 200 thousand dollar range, while keeping a full sweat on the rest of the pot. It is the best problem a survivor player can have, and they say play it your way when you finally get there.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download The SGPN App Today!
0:30 Live From The Circa Sportsbook
1:31 Signing Up For Circa Survivor
2:30 The Board: 13,000 Entries And A $25 Million Pot
3:36 The $1,000 SGPN NFL Futures Giveaway
5:17 A Circa Weekend In Vegas
7:43 Week 1: Don’t Get Cute, Take The Chargers
10:29 Weeks 2-4: Fading Cleveland And The Chalk
15:05 Weeks 5-7: Patriots, Eagles, Texans
19:26 Weeks 8-11: Bengals, Seahawks, Colts, Chiefs
22:54 Thanksgiving Through Week 14: Saving The Rams
24:44 Christmas And The Final Stretch
30:42 The Final Survivor Run-Through
32:03 When To Chop Or Sell
33:25 Wrap-Up And Tomorrow’s Vegas Show
