2025 NCAA March Madness First Four Best Bets & Predictions
This is March! We begin where all good things begin – the first four in Dayton, Ohio. In this rendition of the First Four, we get two lower-level programs along with blue blood and a perennial top-50 team. The First Four began back in 2011 and there have been 13 teams who have won multiple games – including UCLA going to the Final Four in 2021. Four years in a row, a team has made it into the second round, can either of these make that five in a row?
St Francis (PA) vs Alabama State (+3.5)
The battle for whoever will likely get destroyed by Auburn gets us underway for March Madness. St Francis (PA) is making its second tournament appearance in school history – the first since 1991. Alabama State has a little better history with this being their fifth appearance – the first since 2011. We will see history here with one of these teams getting their first NCAA tournament win in school history.
Matchup Preview
Both of these teams come in on hot streaks. Alabama State has won six straight and eleven out of fourteen. St Francis (PA) also has six straight wins and I believe have been the more impressive team, winning on the road in back-to-back games to claim the Northeast crown. If you like offense, this may not be the game for you. Both teams are outside the top 270 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency. Something has to give, but what will it be?
St Francis offensively has progressed the most throughout the season in conference play. Their biggest issue on that side of the ball just so happens to be a strength of Alabama State. The Red Flash are outside the top 300 in turnover offense while the Hornets take the ball away at a top 100 ranking. It will be pivotal for the Red Flash to take care of the ball against the constant pressure and zone looks of the Hornets.
Alabama State’s path the victory is straightforward – cause as much chaos as possible defensively. Their best offense is turning teams over and converting off of those mistakes. They do not get to the free throw line nor do they shoot it particularly well.
St Francis (PA) has to be able to control the tempo and force Alabama State to hit outside shots. I would not be shocked if we see a high usage of zones on both sides. The Red Flash are the smaller team as well and could be handled on the boards, especially offensively. Can the Hornets take advantage …
Who Wins? Why?
I like the dog here – not only to cover but to win it outright. Both teams play in bottom-tier leagues but the Northeast grades out slightly better – advantage St Francis (PA). Per Kenpom, Central Connecticut State is ranked inside the top 185 – the best team (Southern) in the Hornets conference was outside the top 250. The body of work of the Red Flash has me on them here along with some key metrics that are in their favor.
The offense is much better and they’ve shown the ability to win games in multiple ways. Look no further than their last four games where they won two games without scoring 60 points and the other two were wins where they scored 70+ points. They must limit the turnovers and force Alabama State to make some jumpers. There is only one way Alabama State can win this and it is low scoring, so the Red Flash must push the pace while taking care of the ball. My number had this closer to a pick – so let’s cash our first dog of the tournament.
Best Bet: St Francis +3.5
North Carolina (-3.5) vs San Diego St
The much talked about Tarheels will be in a place they are not known to be historically. This will be the lowest seed they have been in school history. Hubert Davis gets a lot of scrutiny but when he gets into the tournament, he produces regardless of the team. The pushback from UNC fans would be that he needs to be more consistent in getting there, which is fair.
On the other hand, the Aztecs have been the model of consistency under Brian Dutcher. This year makes five straight tournament appearances for the Aztecs with an average seed of about seven. We should be in for a fun matchup between these two programs with a chance to win a game or two going forward.
Matchup Preview
Styles make fights (and matchups) so this is no different. We have a Tarheel team that wants to play at a high pace going up against an elite defense and team that wants to play slow. Who can dictate their pace and force their opponent into an uncomfortable 40 minutes?
That is the biggest question in this matchup along with the health status of Magoon Gwath. He has not played since February 22nd and he matters a great deal – especially in this matchup. Without Gwath on the floor, the Aztecs lack a dominant rim protector which could lead to the Tarheels playing more downhill. The limitations offensively also hurt the Aztecs who are notorious for going on four and five-minute scoring droughts. You cannot do that with a high-octane offense like the Tarheels.
Cadeau is the man to watch and who will decide the game for the Heels. He has had turnover issues all year and some of that is just being the only guy who can actually get his teammates a good look. Some of it is him trying to make the homerun play when all you need is a single or double. He has to withstand the Aztec pressure and get downhill to the rim, especially if there is no Gwath
Who Wins? Why?
I like the Tarheels here quite a bit. They have zero issues beating middling to bad teams – it’s the top-tier teams like Duke, Clemson, and the other eleven top-tier teams they lost to. I would consider the Aztecs as a middling team that does not perform well away from home. Their home-to-road splits are drastic and they have yet to win a game on the road against a formidable opponent (top 75) since early January.
The Tarheels have shown they can score against other elite defenses. When facing the top 25 defenses (per Kenpom), they averaged around 76 points per game. To help strengthen my point on how this Tarheel offense should have no issue scoring – eight of those games were on the road or at neutral sites.
The Mountain West Freshman of The Year and Defensive Player of The Year being healthy for the Aztecs is somewhat of a longshot. If he is out there, how conditioned is he to run with the Heels, and is he able to still be a dominant defensive force in the paint.
Expect to see a lot of Withers at the center position to bring Gwath away from the paint which opens up driving lanes. Offensively, the Aztecs are one of the worst in the field and shoot under 33% from deep. Not only that, but they struggle (66%) at the free-throw line. I expect the Heels to come out firing after starting off slow all year and I believe they run the Aztecs out of Dayton.
Best Bet: UNC -3.5
