Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for March 12. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for March 12.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – March 12
Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
Broadcast – NBA TV
In the first of two early games we’ll tackle today, we see that neither of these teams has a big lead when it comes to the first bucket success rate. In fact, the Hawks hold a lead of less than a single percentage point. As a result, we’ll look to the other largest indicator, which is tip off win rate. On the year, the team winning the tip scores roughly 65.9% of the time. The Hornets hold a sizable 8.6% lead in terms of how often they win the tip, but that’s not the biggest factor. That rate for the Hornets also includes a stretch without Mark Williams. If you take just his tip win rate, he lead the Hawks by 26.3%. That’s enough for me to like the Hornets to get on the board first here at -110.
If I’m playing the Hornets right now, I’m playing Miles Bridges as well. He’s getting so much of the early work for the Hornets at this stage in the season. If you take their first three shots in each of the last three games, Bridges accounts for 55.6% of all of those shots. With that kind of bulk and his shooting percentage being where it is, he’s as good as any play available on Wednesday.
First Scorer Bet for March 12: Miles Bridges (+500)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON
Broadcast – NBA TV
While the last two teams were neck and neck in the early scoring rate, these two have nearly identical tip win rates. The 76ers hold a slight lead, but that lead becomes even more slight when you take Joel Embiid out of the equation. Despite that small lead, the big lead in first bucket success goes to the Raptors. They have a 60.0% conversion rate on first buckets, which puts them 3rd in the NBA. Meanwhile, the 76ers come in at 51.6%, which doesn’t even put them in the top third of the league. For that reason alone, I like the Raptors to get on the board first at -105.
Much like the Hornets, there is a clear cut favorite to get the early action north of the border. Scottie Barnes is ripping off all the early shots for the Raptors. He took all three of their first three shots in their last game. And if you look at that sample size over the last three games, he’s taking 66.7% of them overall. If anybody is going to score early for the Raptors, you would have to imagine it is him.
First Scorer Bet for March 12: Scottie Barnes (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for March 12, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
