Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for February 13. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for February 13.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – February 13
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, TX
Broadcast – NBA TV
While the Rockets are in the top ten in the league in terms of first bucket success rate, their tipoff win percentage is holding them from being even better. They are winning just 44.4% of the the first possessions on the season. However, the beauty of this game is that they’ll have a massive advantage on the stat they typically lag behind on. The Warriors are winning the tip at just a 31.5% clip. That number is even worse when you isolate either Tayce Jackson-Davis or Draymond Green as the tip men. Neither is higher than 27.0% on the year. When you consider that the Rockets have already overcome their tip woes and may not have any here, it’s easy to back them.
The down low turmoil for the Warriors seems like a spot to exploit here. Quinten Post isn’t necessarily a bad defender down low, but certainly an inexperienced one. He’ll also face a rested Alperen Sengun, who took Wednesday’s action off. Prior to that, Sengun appeared in the shot log for the first three shots in each of the last three games. That includes taking the first shot twice and making one first bucket. We’ll ride with that volume again here.
First Scorer Bet for February 13: Alperen Sengun (+500)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast – TNT
I’m not sure who we’ll see on the tip for the Thunder, Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein. They seem keen to rest Holmgren, but he is coming off a day off. Either way, I like the Timberwolves to win the tip here. Rudy Gobert is outpacing the still tender Holmgren by 3.6% on the year and Hartenstein by 9.8%. Additionally, the Timberwolves have been much better at converting their wins. They’re 7th in the league in tip wins with 56.4% first bucket success rate – which gives them a 10.1% lead over the Thunder.
When I looked to the odds this morning, I was a bit surprised to see Anthony Edwards sitting at +700. The Timberwolves guard has taken two of Minnesota’s first three shots in each of the last two games. Additionally, he was the leading scorer for the Timberwolves the last time they played Oklahoma City. In that game, he didn’t score first, but the was the first scorer for Minnesota. All signs point to him getting on the board first here with a big number.
First Scorer Bet for February 13: Anthony Edwards (+700)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for February 13, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
