Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 31. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 31.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 31
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Spectrum Center – Charlotte, NC
Broadcast – NBA TV
When you look at these stats on the surface, the first bucket should be close. After all, the two teams have nearly identical numbers when it comes to winning the first possession (the Hornets lead by 1.5%). However, there is far more than what you see on the surface and the biggest piece of it is the injury to Mark Williams. He’s not slated to come back until February 1st, which gives us at least one more game with Taj Gibson on the jump. He’s winning his tips about 15.6% less than Ivica Zubac, and with the tip winners getting the first bucket 65.1% across the league, that’s enough for me to side with the Clippers.
If we’re looking at the last three games, there are two names that stick out pretty obviously. Only two players show up in the first three shots of the Clippers play log in each of those games – Ivica Zubac and Derrick Jones Jr. Not only are those the only two who hit every game, they are also the only two that have taken the first shot for Los Angeles in that span. With Zubac scoring first last time out and it not being common to repeat – let’s take the steeper odds on Jones Jr.
First Scorer Bet for January 31: Derrick Jones Jr. (TBD)
Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Center – Toronto, ON
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Raptors are one of the very best teams in the league in scoring first. They rank 4th in the league with a 61.7% success rate on that. The only reason why they’re not an auto-tail every night is that Jakob Poeltl is not particularly great on the tipoff. He’s winning just 50.0% on the year, which is light when you compare that to their overall success that they’ve seen in the early game action. However, that 50.0% is going to be an astronomical advantage on Friday. Nikola Vucevic has won just 15.2% of his tips all year. With the Raptors already being good at scoring first without a tip advantage, they should be an easy play with one.
If you take the first three shots the Raptors have taken in the last three games, an overwhelming amout of those shots belong with Jakob Poeltl. In fact, he’s taken 55.6% of all of those shots, which includes one of the first ones of the game as well. While he might be a bit of a chalky play, we can’t look the other way on volume like that – especially when the Bulls give up the bulk of their first buckets to opposing bigs.
First Scorer Bet for January 31: Jakob Poeltl (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 31, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.