NBA First Scorer Props – MLK Day

First Scorer Props MLK Day - NBA First Scorer Props - First Scorer Bets - Come tail along with these gems today with usSome people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for MLK Day. Go here for NBA Championship odds.

Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for MLK Day.

Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.

CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS

NBA First Scorer Props – MLK Day

Dallas Mavericks vs. Charlotte Hornets

Tipoff – 12:00 pm EST
Spectrum Center – Charlotte, NC
Broadcast – NBA TV 

The Hornets have not been much of a team to trail when looking at first buckets. They rank 19th in the league in first bucket success rate, which is hardly anything to write home about. However, if we only take the first bucket win rate with Mark Williams on the tip (which is necessary with the trade of Nick Richards), that number jumps up about 10%. Additionally, they were winning only 44.0% of the tips without Williams on the tip and he has proceeded to win 84.6% of them. All of the Williams numbers are better than that of the Mavericks, so we’ll get in on the home squad here.

Not only has Mark Williams been good for those rates, but he’s been good at getting the buckets themselves. He currently has the first score in 23.1% of all the games that he’s started. On top of that, he’s getting tons of early looks. If you take the first three Hornets shots in each of the last three games, Mark Williams represents 44.4% of all of those shots. With nearly a 50% early shot share and roughly a 1-in-4 chance of scoring first in starts, he’s a great value here.

First Scorer Bet for MLK Day: Mark Williams (+600)

Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
Intuit Dome – Los Angeles, CA
Broadcast – NBA TV

The Clippers are above the middle of the pack in all the important metrics for first buckets. They rank 13th in the league in scoring the first bucket (51.2%). They jump all the way up to 8th when it comes to getting the first possession, where they have a 58.5% win rate. Those are already solid numbers, but when you put them up against the Bulls, they look untouchable. The Bulls are dead last in all those numbers – putting up especially sad numbers on the tip (11.9%). With numbers like that, you have to fade the Bulls.

During the Clippers three-game win streak, if you take the first three shot they took in each of those games, two players clearly stand out. Ivica Zubac and Norman Powell account for 88.9% of all the early shots in those games. Both of them come in at the same price for Monday’s action, so it’s hard to split the difference. If we look to what the Bulls typically concede the first bucket to, it’s overwelmingly opposing bigs. As a result, we’ll ride with Ivica Zubac in this one.

First Scorer Bet for MLK Day: Ivica Zubac (+500)

 

If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for MLK Day, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar. 

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