Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 18. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 18.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 18
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Broadcast – NBA TV
There isn’t much statistically that separates these two teams when it comes to scoring a first bucket. Right now, the Warriors have a slight advantage over the Wizards in how often they get on the board first. They currently have a success rate of 45.0% compared to 41.0% for the Wizards. That’s not insignificant when it comes to deciding who will score first, but the tip winner is far more telling.
On the year, tip winners in the NBA are getting 65.1% of the first buckets. As a result, being able to pick who’ll win the tip is a huge advantage. The Warriors rank 29th in the league in that metric – winning only a quarter of the first possessions. The Wizards rank 16th in the league with a 23.7% advantage over Golden State. With that lead, we’ll take someone from Washington.
When playing the Wizards’ side, it’s pretty much a two horse race. While you might occasionally see some early shots from Kyle Kuzma or Bilal Coulibaly, the bulk of the shots early on belong to Alexandre Sarr and Jordan Poole. In back-to-back games they’ve split the first shots. The other took the second shot in that game. Sarr has a touch better of a long term record and has wildly high betting odds here – so we’ll give him a play.
First Scorer Bet for January 18: Alexandre Sarr (+900)
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, OR
Broadcast – NBA TV
This game sees a bit of a reverse in the trend that we saw in the last game. Both teams in this one have pretty much the exact same tip average – 45.0% and 47.5% respectively with the slight edge to the Blazers. However, one of those teams is having an easy time converting those possessions and the other is stuggling to. The Blazers are currently 29th in the league in first bucket conversion at 30.0% and are just percentage points ahead of the last place Bulls. On the other side, the Rockets rank 3rd in the NBA in the stat at 62.5%. With over twice as many first scores, we’ll side with Houston here.
Since making his way into the starting lineup, Amen Thompson has been a guy that the Rockets have liked to utilize. His shot attempts in his 11 starts is way up from his season average and he’s getting plenty of those attempts early on. To make matters better he fits the profile of a player who scores first on the Blazers, so we’ll roll the dice on him here.
First Scorer Bet for January 18: Amen Thomson (+750)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 18, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
