Player Props to Bet Based on Contract Incentives

The NFL regular season is creeping to a close. There are a handful of teams that are still playing for their playoff lives and seeding, but for the most part, things are settled. That means, with three weeks left in the regular season, now is when coaches and teammates start looking at their players’ contract incentives. This gives us a unique opportunity to look at what teams and coaches may be focusing on and bet on those props. So let’s dive in and take a look at some player props to bet based on contract incentives.

The way it works in the NFL is teams build incentives into a player’s contract. X amount of rush yards = X amount of money. Or X amount of catches = X amount of money. Sometimes it’s layered, 40 catches is money, 50 catches is more money, and so on.

Coaches and quarterbacks have and will continue to go out of their way to draw up plays or target players to help them reach these goals. These are their Gridiron brothers, and like any job, we’re all here to get paid. They won’t make an entire gameplan around someone, but when the game is over at the end, whether that’s a win or loss it’s the perfect time to grab those extra stats.

Player Props to Bet Based on Contract Incentives

Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions (-135) & Over 50 Receiving Yards (+475)

Justice Hill currently sits at 42 receptions on the season. Suppose he can get to 50 in the next three games that’s 250k in his pocket. That’s right, he needs three catches a week for the next three games to hit this number and get paid. Hill has already had at least four catches in the Ravens’ last two games and three of their last four. He’s had at least three in seven games this season. This week they take on a tough Steelers defense, they are going to have to find quick ways to get a speedy guy like Hill out in space just like they did when he had four catches against the Steelers earlier this year.

Hill also has 383 receiving yards on the year. If he can get to 500 that’s an additional 250k. If they are already targeting him to get catches, some yards can quickly come with it. Hill had 28 receiving yards the first time these teams played. However, last week he had 52 yards in the air, and in four of the Ravens’ last nine, he’s gone over 40 yards. At almost 5/1, it’s worth a shot when he has half a million dollars on the line.

Mike Evans Over 5.5 Catches (-125) & Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The path to 1,000 yards has already been well-documented for Mike Evans. He was hurt and missed some games but he’s still got a chance. But what if I told you that path to 1,000 yards comes as part of a 3-million-dollar bonus? That’s the bonus Evans can make if he reaches 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

Currently, Evans sits at 52 catches, needing 18 more or six per game. He’s at 749 yards, needing 251 more or 84 per game. And he has nine touchdowns so he just needs one in three games. Now look at who his quarterback is, Baker Mayfield. If there was one quarterback in the entire league I could say hey help me make 3 million dollars too, it’s Baker. Mayfield will go out of his way to force the ball to Evans and not only make sure one of the best players in franchise history keeps his streak alive but also that that man gets paid.

Just look at last week if you need some proof. 11 targets, nine catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a competent Chargers team. Now they play the ailing Dallas Cowboys who just lost Trevon Diggs for the season. Mike Evans to the moon.

Player Props to Bet Based on Contract Incentives

Von Miller Over .25 Sacks (+175)

Let’s turn to a defensive player prop. The Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller’s contract is heavily incentive-laden when it comes to sacks. With four sacks on the season, Miller has already earned 2.5 million dollars in sack bonuses by racking up four sacks during the season. If he can get to six, that total goes to 4 million, eight takes it to 6 million. So if he can find two more sacks in the next three games, it’s worth about 1.5 million dollars.

Luckily for Miller, the Buffalo Bills play against the New England Patriots and the worst offensive line in the league twice. The New York Jets and the statue Aaron Rodgers is their other opponent. If I was Miller this would have me licking my chops something fierce. Expect Miller to go hard after the quarterback in these final three games, after it hits this week it’s probably a bet to revisit the next two weeks as well.

Geno Smith Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Geno Smith has a heavily incentive-based contract that goes into effect if he’s still on the roster in 2025. If he can beat his franchise record of 4,282 yards that he set in 2023. If he hits this number, it kicks in a cool 2-million-dollar roster bonus for 2025. Smith sits at 3,623 passing yards on the season, meaning he needs 220 yards per game. They play a tough Minnesota defense this week. There are likely two ways this game goes, Geno has to throw a lot to keep it close. Or the Vikings bust this game wide open and leave the middle open late in the game while Geno racks up yards toward 2 million. Either way, give me Geno.