Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for October 29. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for October 29.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
NBA First Scorer Props – October 29
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast – TNT
The early data on both of these teams this year gives us a pretty solid indication that the Timberwolves should be scoring first. Both teams have played three games at this point in the season and have seen opposite results. The Mavericks and Daniel Gafford have yet to win a tip or score first in their three game sample. That tracks with what we saw last year from Gafford – winning just 38.6% of his tips. On the Minnesota side, we have Rudy Gobert, who is already 2-3 at grabbing the first posession. While it isn’t flawless, it’s significantly better than what we’re seeing from Gafford. Also, it’s worth mentioning that Gobert snagged the rebound in their lone head-to-head tip last year.
In their last game, Minnesota saw just two people appear in the play-by-play data over the first five shots. Those people are Mike Conley, who took three of the shots, and Julius Randle, who took the other two. Being that Conley has already scored the lone first bucket for the Timberwolves, the odds of him continuing that trend this early in the season is unlikely – especially with as infrequently as he shoots. As a result, we’re going to go to the other one getting the bulk of the early activity.
First Scorer Bet for October 29: Julius Randle (+550)
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, UT
Broadcast – NBA TV
Domantas Sabonis is 1-for-3 on the year with the tip. That 33.3% success rate is significantly better than what he did last year with a 28.6% rate – while still being wildly below the league average. On the other side, Walker Kessler is pulling full time tip duties this year. So far it has worked out for him and the Jazz – they have won all three tips and scored first every time. He wasn’t quite as untouchable last year, but was still above league average. That’s good enough for me against one of the very worst tip guys in the league.
In a three game span, only two players have taken either the first or the second shot of the game – Collin Sexton and Keyonte George. Not only is George posting at a way higher number, but he’s also had the first shot more frequently. Additionally, Sexton already has two first buckets and, much like with Mike Conley, I expect that number to start coming back down to Earth. If they do, George could be the beneficiary.
First Scorer Bet for October 29: Keyonte George (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for October 29, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
