With the new NBA season getting underway, there are no prizes for guessing which team is the betting favorite for the NBA Championship. The Boston Celtics are far and away the team to beat in the sportsbooks’ eyes and in the eyes of plenty of pundits, too.
Of course, when you are looking at the NBA odds for the season, you’ll also be looking for a bit of value. And while most bettors will find it difficult to argue with the Celtics’ status as favorites, they may also be a little put off by their price. Odds somewhere in the region of +300 are floating around for the Celtics’ to make it Championship No. 19.
Does it make sense to back them at those odds? We’d argue that it does. There are no certainties in sports betting, of course, but we can lay out a case for the Celtics’ once again going all the way.
The Dominance of Last Season
Last season has been and gone, and it’s been six years since we had a repeat champion, yet you cannot fail to be impressed by how dominant the Celtics were across 2023/24. They led the Eastern Conference by 14 games, never played more than five games in any Playoff series, outscored opponents by 10.7 pts on average (5th best all-time), won 19 games by double digits (an all-time record), and became the 4th team in NBA history to rank in the top two in both offensive and defensive efficiency. In short, the Celtics weren’t just good; they were historically good.
The Key Pieces Are All Back
The Celtics had a quiet offseason, and it was just what they needed. Key players are signed up for long-term contracts, and there is really no need to rock the boat. They have all their key players coming back – 15 from their championship roster. There is harmony in the Boston camp, a sense of continuation. No new players to try to squeeze into the line-up. Yes, you can be accused of not moving forward by standing still, but there was absolutely no need to fix anything in Boston.
Teams Have Not Improved Enough
This is the controversial aspect. The main criticism about Boston’s greatness is the argument that last season was a down one for all of its rivals. It’s true that the Playoff run through the Eastern Conference was easy enough. Teams, including the Knicks and Sixers, have improved to some extent, but is it enough to close the gap in the East? The main threat from the West seems to be the Oklahoma City Thunder, who do look like they are building something special. Yet, it is debatable that the gap has been closed.
The Most Depth in the NBA
One of the main drawbacks for the Celtics’ rivals is that they are always one injury away from being in trouble. Could you imagine the Mavs competing without Doncic? Or the Bucks without Giannis? The Celtics could afford to lose Tatum or Brown for a long stretch and still be competitive. It wouldn’t be ideal, but there is no dependency on any single player in this Boston Celtics setup. In fact, it is what makes Joe Mazzulla’s team so special. It is a team and not a collection of individuals.
Conclusion
As we said earlier, there are no guarantees in sports betting, and perhaps the Celtics flop this season. Yet, it is very difficult to make an argument against them. The odds might look a little short, but they are short for a reason. The sportsbooks are aware that the Celtics look every inch the team primed to repeat. NBA teams have strengthened and tweaked, but it really does not feel like they have done enough to catch a team that won it all last season without needing to get out of second gear.
