The 16-car playoff field has been cut in half, and now only eight drivers remain with a chance at being crowned the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Those eight drivers have the chance to punch their tickets to the final four in Phoenix if they can secure a win this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 400.5-mile, 267-lap South Point 400 will take place on Sunday, October 20th at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Let’s take a look at the best NASCAR picks, odds, and playoff standings for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The Round of 8 opens with the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. The second race of the round will be at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and then it’ll all come down to Martinsville Speedway to finalize the four drivers with a shot at the championship.
The playoff drama unfolded last week at the Charlotte Roval, both on and off the track for the final spot in this Round of 8. Tyler Reddick made a comeback reminiscent of his car owner Michael Jordan to snag the final spot in the round, kicking two-time champion Joey Logano out. However, in a post-race inspection, Alex Bowman’s car was found to be too light. He was disqualified and given a last-place finish, causing him to fall out of the top eight and conceding the spot to Logano. Hendrick Motorsports declined to appeal so that officially set the field.
After the points reset here’s how the playoff standings look going into Las Vegas. Above the cut line, Kyle Larson +33, Christoper Bell +13, Tyler Reddick +10, William Byron +4. Below the cut line, Ryan Blaney -4, Denny Hamlin -8, Chase Elliott -9, and Joey Logano -11.
F1 United States Grand Prix Odds and Best Bets
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Kyle Larson +370
William Byron +850
Tyler Reddick +950
Denny Hamlin +1000
Christopher Bell +1000
Ryan Blaney +1400
Joey Logano +1500
Chase Elliott +1600
Martin Truex Jr +1700
Kyle Busch +1800
Ross Chastain +2000
Ty Gibbs +2400
Alex Bowman +3100
Bubba Wallace +3100
Brad Keselowski +3100
Chris Buescher +3400
Austin Cindric +6000
Daniel Suarez +7500
Noah Gragson +7500
Chase Briscoe +10000
Austin Dillion +10000
Ricky Stenhouse +15000
Erik Jones +15000
Shane Van Gisbergen +15000
Michael McDowell +15000
Carson Hocevar +15000
Zane Smith +20000
Josh Berry +25000
Corey Lajoie +25000
Ryan Preece +30000
Jimmie Johnson +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +30000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Harrison Burton +50000
Justin Haley +100000
Daniel Hemric +100000
Cody Ware +250000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Standings: South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Noah Gragson Over Austin Cindric (-115)
Austin Cindric had an impressive run in the playoffs. Making the Round of 12, being in position late with a shot to win at Talladega, and then finishing it out with a fourth-place finish at the Roval last week. But don’t let that distract you from how bad he’s been at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
34th at Kansas, 28th at Michigan, 37th at Kansas-1, 25th at Texas, and 29th at Las Vegas in the spring don’t give you a lot of confidence in Cindric. He did finish 20th at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600 as his best mark on the season at 1.5-mile (2-mile in Michigans’s case, but comparable) tracks.
Noah Gragson on the other hand, has fared much better on the same tracks. At Kansas, he finished 18th, Michigan 12th, ninth at Kansas-1, 18th at Texas, and sixth at Las Vegas in the spring. All of those finishes were better than Cindric, by at least 16 spots in three of the four examples. Gragson’s one outlier race was also Charlotte where he left the race early and finished 38th. This is a very lopsided matchup when it comes to perforce this season on comparable tracks, and I’d get in on this head-to-head sooner rather than later.
Martin Truex Jr Top 10 Finish (-125)
I’ve been on the fade Martin Truex Jr train as his full-time cup career winds down to an end. But high-speed 1.5-mile tracks are not the place to fade Martin. He’s been stellar at them not only this season, but he has had a strong run going at Las Vegas Motor Speedway lately. Just a few weeks ago we saw him get his first top-five finishes in the series at Kansas, since the last time they were at Kansas in the spring.
This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Martin Truex has the 2nd best average finish (8.0), the 4th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and at Kansas just a few weeks ago he finished 3rd despite his massive ongoing slump.
Mr. Consistent at Las Vegas in the Next Gen being 5 for 5 at…
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 15, 2024
According to my friends at IFantasyrace.com Truex has the second-best average finish at this track type in 2024. He’s finished inside of the top 10 in eight straight races and 12 of the last 14 at Las Vegas. This could be one of the final bets we place on Truex in his full-time career, and it’s a steal at this number.
Under 2.5 Ford’s to Finish in the Top 10 (+130)
It’s hard to believe that you are getting plus money on a bet that’s cashed five out of the last six Las Vegas Motor Speedway races. In the spring race here, three Fords managed a top 10 finish, but in the five prior Vegas races, not more than two have finished inside of the top 10 in any given race.
The same trend has held true lately at comparable tracks as well. At Kansas, only Ryan Blaney managed a top 10. Michigan was just the two RFK Racing Fords. The Coke 600 also saw only two fords in Keselowski and Berry. May 5th at Kansas was the last time three Fords finished inside the top 10 on a 1.5-mile track. Texas before that, was once again just two Fords.
William Byron to Win (+850)
It’s hard to bet against Kyle Larson in this one, he’s the best driver in the world and is currently on a tear after winning at COTA. However, at only +370 having not had back-to-back winners this season, I’m not willing to pull the trigger right now. Getting his extremely fast teammate at almost twice his number is something I like. Byron has been good lately as well. Over the last three races Byron hasn’t finished worse than third at the big variety of tracks we’ve been to.
He finished second at Kansas, and second at Michigan in the most recent comparison tracks. Third at Charlotte where he led 49 laps as well was a good run. He has the third-best average speed rank on IFantasy Racing at Las Vegas in the Next Gen car and just last season led 176 laps on his way to a Vegas win. This could be the week Byron punches that championship ticket.
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