The Ultimate NASCAR Playoffs wild card race! 500 miles at Talladega Superspeedway. The Stars of NASCAR’s Cup Series hit the track Sunday, October 6th at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC. It’ll be the second race in the Round of 12 for the playoffs. Let’s dive in and take a look at the NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets at Talladega Superspeedway.
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Last week it was Ross Chastain in the role of playoff spoiler picking up the win at Kansas Speedway and not allowing any playoff drivers to mark themselves safe from the carnage Talladega is sure to bring.
At Talladega, remember the superspeedway betting rules of keeping the bets light, but having fun with the long shots! On the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, we always say “Expect to lose it all, and be happy when some of the bets cash”! That’s a great way to approach betting on these chaos-filled drafting tracks. That being said, there are still drivers who are better than others here, and here are a few bets to consider!
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway
Ryan Blaney +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Brad Keselowski +1200
Kyle Busch +1300
Chase Elliott +1600
Denny Hamlin +1700
William Byron +1700
Kyle Larson +2100
Chris Buescher +2100
Bubba Wallace +2100
Austin Cindric +2100
Ross Chastain +2300
Tyler Reddick +2400
Christopher Bell +2500
Martin Truex Jr +2800
Michael McDowell +3000
Ty Gibbs +3300
Daniel Suarez +3400
Alex Bowman +3400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3600
Austin Dillion +4100
Chase Briscoe +4400
Noah Gragson +5500
Corey Lajoie +5500
Josh Berry +5500
Ryan Preece +5500
Harrison Burton +5500
Todd Gilliland +5500
Erik Jones +5500
AJ Allmendinger +5500
Justin Haley +5500
Carson Hocevar +8500
Anthony Alfredo +8500
John Hunter Nemchek +8500
Shane Van Gisbergen +8500
Daniel Hemric +8500
Zane Smith +9000
Cody Ware +10000
JJ Yeley +10000
Bj McLeod +10000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway
Erik Jones Top 10 (+240) Top Finishing Toyota (+1000)
Erik Jones is a solid superspeedway racer. But when it comes to Talladega he’s elite. Over the last nine races at the track, six times Jones has finished inside of the top 10. He’s run well here with Joe Gibbs Racing, Richard Petty Motorsports and now Legacy Motor Club. His Talladega racing has translated from team to team, manufacturer to manufacturer, and old car to new car.
The spring race was a tough result after the Toyotas got on what seemed to be a potential race-winning strategy. They were all running together before John Hunter Nemechek slipped up and wrecked the whole group. Those things happen at Talladega, but more times than not Jones puts himself in position for that top 10.
As far as the top Toyota portion of the bet, there are only eight out there which means he only has to beat seven others. If he’s already going to be top 10 that puts him in a good position. If a few of those other cars have issues or get caught in wrecks, Jones could easily be the top Toyota standing. A bet that can cash if he wins the race (also a good bet at 55/1!) or maybe even from 15th.
Daniel Hemric Top 10 (+450)
The books are tired of getting beat on top 10’s at superspeedways and after we cooked them at Kansas last week with Zane Smith (16/1) it’s hard to blame them. Hemric is a guy who offers a good amount of value at this number though.
Hemric finished ninth in the spring, so he’s more than capable of getting it done at this track. Just a few weeks ago at Daytona, Hemric again finished in ninth place. Then turned around at Atlanta and finished 11th. In the Daytona 500, he was 16th at the end of the day, not far off that top 10. Hemric also has a fifth place finish at Talladega in 2019 when he was driving for RCR.
Brad Keselowski to Win (+1200)
If you are looking to bet on one of the favorites, look no further than Bad Brad Keselowski. Dale Earnhardt Sr is the only driver to win in the Cup Series at Talladega more than Keselowski. He’s tied for second on that wins list (6) with Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. A pretty solid list of hall-of-famers to be associated with.
It can sometimes be checkers or wreckers for Brad at this track, but with a 12/1 outright bet that’s fine, we know he’ll be going for it. In the last seven races here Brad has four top fives, one of those a win and twice finishing in second place.
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