We are just under two weeks away from NFL football. Each season, the sportsbooks go up a level when offering different markets. One of my favorite markets to bet on is player props. Today, we will walk through my top five player prop matchups. As always, shop around to find the best number. Here are my NFL Regular Season matchup player props best bets!
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
NFL Regular Season Matchup Player Props Best Bets & Analysis
Most Receiving Yards H2H – Dalton Kincaid (+100) vs. George Kittle (-125)
Kittle is coming off his best year since 2019, while Kincaid is just getting started. He finished his rookie year with 70+ catches and over 600 yards. Those numbers should increase significantly this year for multiple reasons.
Diggs and his 160 targets exit, as well as Gabe Davis’ 81. That’s well over 225 available targets. Keon Coleman will get a bunch of those, as will Shakir, but Buffalo utilizes 21 personnel (2 tight ends, 1 running back) at a high rate. Dawson Knox returns, which frees up Kincaid even more.
I see regression in the 49ers’ offense this season. Teams have a year’s worth of film on Purdy, and there will be an early adjustment period. Kittle will not fall off, but we will see more of a 600-700-yard season, assuming everyone stays healthy.
Deebo missed time last year, which increased Kittle’s usage, evident in last year’s numbers. He also was the healthiest he’s been in the last few years.
In an expanded role, I think Kincaid can push for 1,000 yards. Their division could be susceptible to tight ends, and Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability only adds more value to Kincaid.
Allen’s ability to extend and make plays out of nothing is top-tier, and hopefully, for our NFL player prop matchup sake, he finds Kincaid often.
Most Receiving Yards H2H – Jaxson Smith-Njigba (-115) vs. Xavier Worthy (-115)
The Worthy hype is on full display, which caused this number to open with Smith-Njigba as a small dog. I can’t get there with a rookie receiver who is talented but also a one-trick pony right now. He’s also in an offense that spreads the ball around through the air and runs the ball at a decent rate.
The conservative era is over in Seattle. In steps Ryan Grubb, who was one of the reasons why Washington was in the national championship last year. This is a step up in class, but we’ve seen good offensive minds adapt and thrive. Grubb has the talent at every level to put on a show, especially in the slot with JSN.
DK is going to be DK, which is fine. It means JSN will be getting the second and third-best corners. If you saw any Huskies game last year, Grubb loves his slot receivers. Where does JSN love to operate? You guessed it.
He finished with 63 catches and over 600 yards as the third option in an outdated offense. Lockett is the second option but has declined each of his last three years.
Expect JSN to close that gap even more in a system he’s more accustomed to flourishing in. Worthy will make a few splash plays, but over a full year, I don’t think the production is close to JSN’s.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba (-115)
Most Rushing Yards H2H – Zamir White (-125) vs. Zack Moss (+100)
Moss is coming off a career year but is in a new location where I believe it will be more of a running back by committee approach. Chase Brown is electric and provides versatility in the passing game. Moss may be slated as the starter but by Thanksgiving, I expect Brown to be the starter.
It should be noted that Moss benefited from Jonathan Taylor’s absence for the first half of the season. His role expanded, and he took advantage, which gives us value on White. With 79 fewer carries, White trailed Moss by around 32 yards. This seems like a lot, but not with how the Raiders switched schemes under Pearce.
White was a non-factor in McDaniels’s offense. He barely got on the field and was underutilized when he did get a chance. Pearce instantly lifted White’s play with his ground-and-pound approach. With their quarterback room, I do not expect the philosophy to change.
In the last quarter of the season, White carried the ball 17 or more times in every game while having three straight 100-yard games. Burrow is back in Cincinnati, and I don’t think Moss is at the top of the pecking order for that offense. White will be the focal point from game one. I don’t expect this to even be close.
Zamir White (-125)
Most Rushing Touchdowns H2H – Jonathan Taylor (+100) vs. Breece Hall (-125)
I think the wrong player is favored in this NFL player prop matchup. Last year, Taylor got off to a late start and only played ten games. He was learning a new scheme with a new quarterback, which is always difficult in year one. Despite that, he finished with more touchdowns (7) than Breece (5) on far less touches.
The Jets were one-dimensional last year, but with Rodgers back, more emphasis will be put on the passing game. Breece’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield does not limit his production; it enhances it.
That is exactly why Taylor is a great bet in this matchup. Breece finished with four receiving touchdowns last year and over 500 receiving yards. His impact could be far more critical through the air versus on the ground.
Taylor is going to benefit from a second year in the system and a dual-threat quarterback who keeps the defense guessing. Despite Richardson possibly taking some goal-line carries away, the upside is higher than what Breece will be getting.
I think Taylor picks up where he left off last year but with a full 17-game workload.
Jonathan Taylor (+100)
Most Passing Touchdowns H2H – Joe Burrow (-105) vs. Brock Purdy (-120)
It seems people have forgotten how good Joe Burrow is. Last year was injury-plagued and he only played in ten games. The offense was in a funk early, but just as they started to hit a stride, Burrow went down.
In the previous two seasons, he’s averaged 35 touchdown passes and nearly 4600 yards. All of this while being behind a bad offensive line and playing in one of the best divisions in football.
Purdy was awesome in his first full year as a starter. Over 4000 passing yards and 31 touchdowns led the 49ers to yet another Super Bowl appearance. Are we expecting a sophomore slump?
It’s a small one, but I don’t think he has had a bad year; it is just a small regression. With the Ayuik situation, the 49ers’ offseason has not been the smoothest, and the offensive line remains a question mark.
Teams now have a year’s worth of film to dissect on Purdy, which could cause a small step back. The division has improved, and I believe we will see more struggling from Purdy early on until he can adjust.
As for Burrow, the offensive line must improve, and he also has a disgruntled weapon on his side. If he is upright, I’m expecting an MVP-type season.
The running game could be an issue, and a few questionable secondaries are in the division. I trust Joe to come back with a vengeance and get close to 40 touchdowns while Purdy cools off in year two.
Joe Burrow (-105)
