We cashed another underdog series winner in the Western Conference Finals, making that back-to-back article winners. That is in the past, though, and we are on to the final series of the year. There are numerous storylines surrounding this series but I will not bore you with that. Let’s get straight into breaking this series down and extracting some value. Here is my NBA Finals preview and best bets!
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NBA Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Series Preview & Best Bets
Boston has been the best team all year and the favorite to get here all year. On the opposite side, Dallas came into the playoffs with longer odds and were underdogs in two of the three series. That trend continues as they are anywhere from +175 to +188 in the market.
Is Dallas being disrespected? Is the Celtics price too high? Let’s break it down from both sides and see if we can find out which side has the most value. As always, shop around for the best number regardless of which side you like. For this article’s purpose, we will use Circa as our book of choice.
Series Price: Celtics -215 – Mavericks +177
Their paths to this point have been completely opposite. The opponent’s strength up to this point can go one or two ways. Either the team is battle-tested and more prepared for the opposing team, or they could be worn down by those grueling series. How you decipher what is real is critical, especially in this series.
Although their paths differ, one thing remains true for both sides. This is the best opponent each of them has faced this postseason. The biggest elephant in the room is the health and status of Kristaps Porzingis. It’s been reported that he has been practicing and should be available for Game 1. That would give the Celtics even more versatility and mismatches all over the floor.
Dallas also has some advantages they can exploit with or without Porzingis on the floor, which is what makes this series so intriguing. The health of Derrick Lively Jr. is critical as he took a shot to the head in Game 5 of the WCF. The extra time off also helps Luka heal up from those nagging injuries he has sustained in the playoffs.
Three Keys For Dallas
Role Players
Shaq and Barkley like to call them “others” but I prefer role players. No matter your word association, they are critical in the Mavs quest to win this series. How do we define role players? To me, a role player is any player outside of your top two stars. In Dallas’ instance, it would be Gafford, Lively, Washington, and Derrick Jones Jr.
Kyrie and Luka are averaging 51.6 combined points per game. Through the playoffs, the role players are averaging 33.4 points per game. Opposite of them, Boston’s role players (Holiday, White, and Horford) are averaging roughly 38 points. There are a few Porzingis games in there but 95% of that is from those three.
The depth is on the side of Dallas, but it is critical that their role players take some pressure off of Kyrie and Luka. PJ Washington lifted them last series but was inconsistent in the other two series. He is the biggest x-factor for them on both ends of the floor. If they can outscore or be even with the Boston role players, they can win this series.
Three Point Defense
An obvious key here, especially with the frequency and efficiency that Boston shoots them. In prior series, Dallas was able to load up the paint and actually welcome teams to shoot those contested threes. That obviously is not going to work here, so what can they do?
One of Dallas’ best aspects is that they rebound well defensively. This prevents kick-out threes from offensive rebounds that are essentially layups for Boston. In addition, they must limit the transition kick-ahead threes. Boston is elite at getting early three-point attempts, and once a few fall, it opens up driving lanes for Tatum and Brown.
13 is the magic number. This postseason, when Boston has made 13 or more threes, they are 9-0. Some of them you are going to have to live with, but you cannot allow an avalanche. Dallas’ scheme has to do a complete 360 in this series, and it starts by limiting the three-point barrages.
Rebounding – Rim Defense
According to NBA.com, Dallas has increased their offensive rebound percentage by almost 5.5 percent. As we highlighted in the second key, those defensive rebounds limit kickouts and transition threes.
Although Boston bombs away from three, they are above 60% in the paint. The counter to that is they have yet to face a team with rim protection like Dallas.
To expand further, Dallas’ opponents are shooting 51% in the paint. When Gafford is the primary rim protector, that percentage drops to 45. Oh, and when he’s off the floor, opponents are shooting 49% when Lively is in rim protection mode.
The biggest challenge to Dallas is how they adjust to defending Boston’s five-out offense. You can’t protect the rim if you’re pulled away and have to guard the perimeter. How Dallas handles that is a huge key to its success in this series.
Three Keys For Boston
Perimeter Defense
When you have two All-NBA defenders on the perimeter, life is good. However, this backcourt is something they have yet to see. Ball pressure has been ramped up this postseason and I would expect a similar philosophy from Boston in this series. Dallas has multiple ball handlers, but Luka primarily initiates the offense.
If Boston can take anything from their last series, it was Indiana’s constant backcourt pressure. This pressure is not necessarily used to cause turnovers but more so to make the offense get into their sets later in the shot clock. You want to try to wear down Luka and Kyrie as much as possible.
Foul baiting is an elite skill that Luka possesses, and even the smartest defenders fall for it. Boston is one of the better teams at defending without fouling. In fact, this postseason, their opponents are shooting 14.5 free throws per 100 shots from the field.
To expand that even further, no opponent has shot more than 60 total free throws in a series against their defense. If they can continue that and force Dallas to execute in the half-court, they will be in good shape. It also helps to get Porzingis back to help protect the paint, which they had issues with against the Pacers.
Bench Production
The biggest weakness in Boston is their bench. Without Porzingis, they depended on more production from the bench, and it was not successful. In ten playoff games without Porzingis, Payton Pritchard scored over 52% of the bench points.
In those ten games, Pritchard either led or was tied for the most bench points and in six of those games, they failed to even score 20 points as a whole.
It’s critical that Boston gets more from their bench because Dallas has a deep bench with reliable options. With Porzingis back, it slides Horford back to the sixth man, which should bolster them. That is assuming Porzingis is not on some type of minute restriction.
I’m not saying the bench has to be unbelievable, but they do need to increase their production. Hauser had a brutal series and needs to be better at stretching the floor. The Kornet injury should elevate Brissett to get a little more time, which gives them more versatility defensively.
Jayson Tatum
I know what you’re thinking. Tatum is an obvious key to victory for Boston, which is true. However, he must be GREAT in this series for them to win. Luka is the best player on the floor, but that cannot be the case for Boston to win.
Tatum is often overcriticized and not given enough credit for how good and successful he’s been at such a young age. Some of it is warranted, but a lot of it is unfair, especially when people crown other players who do not have a piece of his resume.
After leading the team in points, rebounds and assists throughout the playoffs, there is still another level he can go to. He has yet to shoot the ball well from deep but keeps settling for threes. Not saying he should stop shooting them, but maybe not off the dribble. When he is getting open looks within the flow of the offense, those threes fall.
After underperforming in his first finals appearance, I think he is poised to have a great second appearance. More mid-post and free throw line catches should be implemented, especially with Dallas not having the positional size to defend him. He can’t have moments or spurts; he has to perform from the jump.
Who Wins? Why?
I have the utmost respect for the Dallas backcourt, BUT I don’t think they have enough for Boston. In fact, I will go as far as saying Boston handles them pretty easily. There has been a rise in popularity for Dallas due to their obvious star power and who they beat to get here.
Let’s not forget who has been dominant from beginning to end. A historic offense and a top-three defense have propelled them to 64 wins and a 12-2 record in the postseason. They are outscoring opponents by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions while being undefeated on the road.
Dallas has yet to face a team with more than one shooting option. The top two players they’ve faced in their three series do not compare to what Boston has. Gafford and Lively will be forced away from the rim and negate their shot-blocking and rebounding.
Defensively, they have multiple options for Luka, and they all pose different challenges for him. A player as great as Luka cannot be given a heavy dose of the same coverage. Boston has the ability to do that, and they do so without fouling.
The corner three is a huge part of the Mavs’ offense. Luka leads the league with passes that lead to three-point attempts. 34% of the Mavs’ three-point attempts have come from the corner, and they have sunk a playoff-high 4.9 corner three makes.
Guess who is the best at defending that? You’re right, it’s Boston. In the regular season only 21% of opponents three-point attempts came from the corner. This postseason, it is down to 18% on 1.5 corner three makes per game.
Shutting down those corner threes and forcing Dallas to take and make tough twos is what Boston is going to do. Remember what happened to Kyrie against the Thunder? He scored 94 total points in five games, and now he’s facing a better version of defenders.
Shutting down Kyrie and making Luka beat you on low efficiency should be the game plan. There are several paths to victory for Boston which I perceive to be easier than Dallas.
Best Bet: Boston to win Game 1 and the series (-135) – Boston 4-1 (+320)