We are fresh off of cashing our Pacers +210 and +1.5 games in our last article but now we switch conferences. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the playoffs, and today, we will break it down and try to help get on the right side. Let’s get into my Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, Western Conference Finals preview, and best bets!
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Western Conference Finals: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Series Preview & Best Bets
Series Price: Minnesota -168 – Dallas +142
Both teams won long, brutal series to advance, but there is no time to rest with yet another tough series upcoming. Minnesota is in its first conference finals since 2004, and Dallas is making its first appearance since 2022, when it was dominated by the Warriors.
The regular season matchups can be discarded. All of the games were played prior to the acquisition of Gafford and Washington, with Kyrie and Luka only playing together once. There are several ways we could break down this series, but let’s start with the paths of victory for each side.
How Does Dallas Win
While Luka and Kyrie’s offensive brilliance grabs headlines, the defense stands out to me. Dallas held OKC under 110 points three times while shutting down the ancillary pieces to SGA. If we expand that sample size, Dallas held the Clippers under 105 points four times. In each of those series, they were tasked with defending a prolific scorer, which can help their game plan for Anthony Edwards.
Luka and Kyrie were not good last series, to their standards. Injuries have been plaguing Luka, but Kyrie has been waiting too long to get aggressive. In four of the six games, he scored 20 or less and single digits twice. It will not get any easier with McDaniels and Edwards guarding him, but one would think his aggression is up a few notches from the last series.
After struggling in the first half of the series, Luka ended strong with back-to-back triple-doubles and shot the ball much better. He has had three days to recover and prepare for another battle with a physical defense.
Dallas has no shot to win if both stars play like they did last series, especially Kyrie. The role players exceeded expectations last series. They can’t expect that for back-to-back series against the best defense in the league. Once the big two elevate their game, the others will follow their lead and put them in a position to win this series.
How Does Minnesota Win
There is no secret about how the Wolves want to play. They are physical and elite at turning defense into easy offense. However, they have to be careful with that aggression in this series.
Lu Dort was the primary defender for most of that series and was in foul trouble every game. If McDaniels has to sit early, that changes the entire defensive scheme for the Wolves. So, it is vital the Wolves defend without fouling but also still sustain their aggressive level.
Can Towns stay on the floor? He is the second-best offensive option, and without him on the floor, there is more pressure on Ant. Dallas has not had to deal with anyone of KAT’s skill set, which could benefit the Wolves on offense, but he has to be on the floor to take advantage.
We have not seen much of it, but I think we do this series. However, playing KAT at center and Naz at forward could be an issue for Dallas. That lineup also prevents Dallas from exploiting Gobert in pick-and-roll switches as they did in the 2022 first-round matchup against Utah.
Wolves will need more production from their bench. Dallas goes eight or sometimes nine deep, whereas Minnesota plays seven. Last series, Naz was responsible for over 60% of their bench points. Anderson and Alexander-Walker must step up and match Dallas’ bench production.
Who Wins? Why?
I love Dallas in this series. The market is not on my side, as the Wolves have been bet up from the opening series price. If we look at the last series, OKC was the popular betting side all series, and we saw what happened there. Obviously, this is a different team, but I think the value is on Dallas. Let me explain why . . .
Minnesota’s success is heavily dependent upon how the game is officiated. After dominating Denver in the first few games, the officiating got a little tighter, and the Wolves struggled. That is not the sole reason they struggled, but it played a big part.
Dallas has multiple mismatches they can exploit, starting with pulling Gobert away from the rim. That will allow Kyrie to get to his mid-range pull-up or finish at the rim. McDaniels is a hell of a defender, but Luka is a different animal. I would expect Luka to be off ball and, in the post, a little more this series. He has McDaniels by almost 50 lbs. and is coming off of frustrating another young, hellacious defender.
The physicality will not affect Dallas in the way it did Denver. Dallas has better positional size and depth, which could give the Wolves a lot of issues—multiple defenders who can frustrate Ant and force him to trust his teammates more.
Are they going to shut him down? Absolutely not, but they have the perimeter defense and rim protection to make it tough. Dallas’s defense will be the unsung hero of this series, and I expect Luka to have a monster series on his way to the Finals.
Best Bet: Dallas To Win Series: +142 – Dallas To Win In 6 games +460
