If you are reading this, you are in the right place. This is not the 90s when we saw these teams battle in classic series. The rivalry is renewed for a chance to go to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a complete contrast in styles, and there are multiple storylines on both sides. Indiana won the regular season series 2-1, but how much stock do we put in that? Can Indiana stop Brunson? Can the Knicks handle the pace of the Pacers? Let’s discuss. Here are my Pacers vs. Knicks Series betting preview and predictions.
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Pacers vs. Knicks Series Betting Preview & Predictions
How Do The New York Knicks Win
There is no secret about how the Knicks want to play. You are not going to be tougher, scrappier, or out-hustle them. They are going to be relentless on the glass and get to the line at a high rate. They were +22 in free-throw attempts against Indiana in the regular season. A lot of that damage was done without some of their key pieces, like Harteinstein and OG.
Jalen Brunson is going to produce, but more consistency will be needed from his supporting cast. Hart was knocking down his threes against Philly, but there was not a lot of consistency on a nightly basis.
That will ease the pressure off of Brunson and allow him to not play in a crowd as often. Controlling the pace of play is a huge component in this series, and nobody plays at a slower pace than the Knicks.
Indiana will try and make them play at a higher pace but the Knicks have to pick their spots correctly. You do not want to get in a track meet with the deeper team that is accustomed to playing that style. Instead, you want to slow the game down and make Indiana execute in the half-court.
Missed free throws and turnovers cost the Knicks from ending the 76ers earlier. They will have to clean that up against a team that thrives in transition. Perimeter defense will be critical as well. Pacers play with all five players on the perimeter, which could result in some mismatches on switches.
It also does not allow their bigs to sit in the paint and get easy rebounds. Limiting the Pacers to one shot and defending the perimeter will put the Knicks in a position to be in their first conference finals since the 99-00 series, which ironically was against the Pacers.
How Do The Indiana Pacers Win
Two things come to mind when it comes to this matchup. The first and most obvious is their defense. They have shown the ability to defend at an average level, but there is no consistency. The Knicks are going to make them defend for over half of the shot clock. Attention to detail and consistent defensive effort should be a high priority for the Pacers.
There was no love lost between Rick Carlisle and Jalen Brunson, who were together in Dallas. Will Carlisle have something schemed up for Brunson? I think so, especially given how they played against Lillard in game 6.
They forced Lillard to give the ball up early and constantly pressured him as soon as the ball was being inbounded. I expect to see that same philosophy for Brunson, especially with the Knicks not having another reliable ball handler.
When people think of the Pacers, they think of a high-scoring, three-point launching team. While that is somewhat true, it does not tell the full story. The Knicks actually rely more on the three than the Pacers.
The Pacers are above average at defending the three. They are also top ten in defending the rim, which is key when dealing with the offensive rebounding prowess of the Knicks’ bigs.
Haliburton’s back is the biggest wild card of the series. He has not been the same since the All-Star break and even had his moments last series. For the Pacers to win, he needs to revert to the play-in tournament Haliburton.
A big part of dictating the pace is set by Haliburton and him getting the ball to his teammates for easy looks. If he can match the production of Brunson, the Pacers have a great shot to win this series.
Impact Player: Pascal Siakam
After Brunson, Siakam is who I perceive to be the second most impactful player. He is likely to be tasked with guarding Brunson periodically and is the Pacers’ best scoring threat. He did not finish the Bucks series as strong as he started, and his lack of aggression was evident. The Knicks wings do not have enough size to deal with Siakam at the mid-post area, where he is most efficient.
Can he exploit the mismatch and put up similar numbers to what he did in the opening two games of the last series? It starts with demanding the ball and being more assertive, especially with Haliburton not being 100%.
His aggressiveness could lead to foul trouble for his defender, which gives the Pacers and their depth an even bigger advantage. Siakam needs to have an All-NBA caliber series for the Pacers to advance.
Best Bets
The Knicks will be the popular pick amongst media outlets and most casual sports fans. However, I will zag while everyone else is zigging. There is no doubt that Brunson is the best player in the series. Will that be enough? The Pacers have multiple defenders to throw at him and one of the best rim protectors in the league.
Brunson feasted on pick-and-roll sets against Philly due to Embiid’s lack of lateral quickness. Indiana will not have that problem and should be well-equipped to better defend those sets.
We should see a lot of blitzing and trapping to force the other players to beat you. Indiana’s mid-range defense must improve. They ranked last in defending the mid-range, which is trouble if Brunson has space off that pick-and-roll.
The Knicks played six home games last series. Wells Fargo Center was full of Knicks fans, and that will not be the case in this series. The home-court advantage can’t be discounted, as the Pacers are 28-15 straight up and 23-18 against the spread. Their offensive metrics are off the charts at home, and I think the depth will be on full display all series.
Defending without fouling and limiting the Knicks’ second-chance opportunities are high priorities. The Knicks’ physicality and toughness can not dictate this series. Indiana has to get out and run to wear down the Knicks. Their defense is shaky, but they rank top 15 in half-court defense, which is perfect because the Knicks live in the half-court.
Game one is the perfect game to steal, as the Knicks are coming off a physical, highly competitive series. The adjustment to Indiana may take more than just one game, and if Indiana can get a split, we are cooking—the depth and shot-making favor the Pacers, which is why I like them to win this series.
Bet: Indiana Pacers +1.5 games & To Win Series (+210)
